Re: Silver Still Phase I ,Phase 2 when plus 50$(old high)
Martin Armstrong, (released from 11 yrs in prison) has published a 3/1/2011 Newsletter "HOW and WHEN" which I just found t'day. 11 pages, last couple speak specifically to silver. First serious pre-view wrt. silver starts on page 7--
second column, half-way down. Do kind of hafta read the prior 6 pages to understand the foundation he lays for understanding phases and transition phase price action based upon his ECM theory/observations.
Has several interesting comments re: strength in silver, and pointing out the PHASE TRANSITION action currently going on.
My apologies if this has already been posted. I did look higher on this thread but didn't see it...
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files...03-01-2011.pdf
Re: Silver Still Phase I ,Phase 2 when plus 50$(old high)
A phase transition is the transformation of a thermodynamic system from one phase or state of matter to another.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition
Silver is in a phase transition from one state or level to another.....
Re: Silver Still Phase I ,Phase 2 when plus 50$(old high)
well, Jeez, silver is 3/4 of the way to $50.
ever been on a one-day car trip when you were 3/4 of the way there ?
that last 1/4 goes by real fast. silver only has to increase in price by 33%.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalsilver.html
and, looking at the historical charts, silver got to $25 solidly back in November 2010.
5 months ago. to get from $25 to $37.50 was about a 50% increase.
in other words, at the current rate of increase, silver will be at $50 in fewer than 5 months. :o
i wonder if the past typical "summer pullback" will happen this year.
Re: Is Silver Entering Phase II Bull Market?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugginator
Waitin for a pullback ;)
:ROFL:
I was just peeking in for a sec and saw the price of silver..then decided to look at this thread...and was skiming and this post really cracked me up! I had to post and say thanks
Edit to add...so much that i decided to start a tread..... ;D
Re: Silver Still Phase I ,Phase 2 when plus 50$(old high)
Paradigm Shift
-- Posted Tuesday, 29 March 2011 Source: GoldSeek.com
]As an investor, sometimes the best action you can take is no action. Jason Hamlin of the Gold Stock Bull newsletter didn't start snapping up stocks on news of disaster in Japan and military attacks in Libya. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Jason tells why he's holding his ground and how macro issues spanning the globe could push precious metal prices.
The Gold Report: Jason, the gold price fell dramatically after the Japanese earthquake and subsequent tsunami. Were you buying in the dip, and if so, what were you buying?
Jason Hamlin: I wasn't buying or selling mining shares on the news out of Japan, but did add to my physical stockpile on the dip. Not a really exciting strategy, but I already had a decent amount of exposure to equities. There was a lot of risk and uncertainty in the market after the news out of Japan, so I decided to wait and watch how things progressed. Equities have rallied pretty well, but I am not convinced that we're out of the woods yet.
TGR: Did you panic at all when gold went down to $1,380/oz.?
JH: No, especially with the amount of physical buying in recent months. It seems like every dip has been met by an overwhelming demand for physical gold and silver. I feel that we have entered a new paradigm in which there will be shorter and shallower corrections than witnessed during the past decade.
TGR: There is definitely a lot of international upheaval. What impact do you think the enforcement of a no-fly zone over Libya will have on the gold price in the near term?
JH: I'd like to point out that the no-fly zone was used as a justification for missile strikes; it was a much more aggressive policy than the simple no-fly zone that was originally proposed. It was also done without congressional approval, which I view as a continued violation of the Constitution, which states that only Congress can declare war. I question the political and moral authority of the West to be doing this, especially considering that the U.S. is broke and must borrow $1.6 trillion per year to cover its budget shortfall.
Economically, the ease and swiftness with which the U.S. decided to do this, and with little debate, translates into more fear and uncertainty in the markets. It will prove bullish for precious metals and oil, both in terms of the fear trade and the inflationary impact. Investors are increasingly viewing gold and silver as a better safe-haven investment than dollars or bonds, which have served this function for mainstream investors in the past. I see this trend accelerating in the coming months and years as more investors lose faith in the U.S. dollar and the U.S. government's ability to repay its exploding debt, which has topped 100% of the gross domestic product by some estimates.
TGR: We're not at 200% yet!
JH: Not quite as bad as Japan, but the 90% to 100% range is typically where most economists say interest payments become such a burden that it becomes hard to get the fiscal house in order.
TGR: On Friday, Goldman Sachs set a three-month target price for gold of $1,480/oz. Are you comfortable with that number?
JH: I quit paying attention to anything Goldman Sachs had to say a long time ago, particularly when it comes to forecasting the gold price. They have consistently under-forecasted and underestimated the precious metals market by a wide margin. I essentially view Goldman Sachs and the big investment banks as financial terrorists who should be jailed, not respected institutions deserving of the slightest iota of creditability. The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Justice Department might not want to go after them, but it's pretty clear to me that they disregarded their fiduciary duty and don't have their clients' best interests in mind. Taking their forecasts or analysis to be factual or relevant seems foolhardy.
Also, three months is really too short term to predict the price of gold with any degree of accuracy. However, I believe gold has a good chance of hitting $1,800/oz. by year-end. That's been my target. Gold could then easily pass its official inflationary adjusted high of $2,300/oz. next year. The true inflation-adjusted high for gold is somewhat closer to $5,000/oz. if we're not using the suppressed government statistics. I think there's a good chance that gold will surpass that figure before the bull market is over.
TGR: You mean the consumer price index?
JH: Right. The CPI is pretty well understood to be fudged in order to show inflation as lower than it actually is. Anyone who does the grocery shopping for a household knows that inflation is running more than a couple percent annually.
TGR: Let's talk about silver. Silver has closed the silver:gold ratio, or the number of silver ounces it takes to buy an ounce of gold, to 40:1. Historically, it's been much closer than that, but this is as close as we have seen in recent memory. That raises the question: is silver closing the gap a little too quickly—and overheating?
JH: I believe silver is likely to continue outperforming gold for the remainder of this bull market. I think the ratio will most likely revert back to 15:1 at some point in the next few years. Supply and demand fundamentals dictate such a revision.
For example, 95% of the gold ever mined is still in existence, whereas about 95% of the silver ever mined has been destroyed or used in such small quantities that it can't be economically recovered. The industrial uses of silver continue to increase, including high-tech electronics, solar and wind energy systems, batteries, medical and military applications, and even water purification. Silver truly is irreplaceable in many of today's critical applications.
In the past several months, there have been signs of shortages. Overall, the physical demand is overwhelming the supply. Even absent a short squeeze, the fundamentals dictate a much higher price for silver both in absolute terms and in relation to the gold price.
There is also another perspective on that ratio. If it's based on production of silver versus gold, the ratio would be closer to 10:1. Comparing overall demand to overall mine production, there is a shortfall of 100 to 200 Moz. of silver every year. There's actually less silver bullion aboveground available for investment than there is gold bullion. As the hedge fund manager Eric Sprott said, "There is 75 times more dollars worth of gold to buy than silver."
Despite these statistics, there is an increasing percentage of investor dollars flowing into silver, which is still 30% below its all-time nominal high, even though gold is about 70% above its 1980 price. The numbers just don't add up.
I don't think silver is closing the gap too quickly, but rather that the gold:silver ratio is likely to fall even lower over the next few years.
TGR: Okay. How far off is $40/oz. silver?
JH: Silver is approaching $40 rather quickly, but I prefer to steer clear of short-term predictions. That's just a guessing game. However, I do think silver will likely pass $50 by year end.
TGR: That would be truly remarkable. Given the current market conditions, what sort of junior mining plays are you seeking these days?
JH: My focus is on junior miners that appear undervalued relative to their peers and under-appreciated by the market. I do a good deal of fundamental research and cross-analysis. I look for miners that are well financed, with high-grade drill results, open strike zones, and management that has a track record of moving projects from exploration into production. I like companies that have a clear plan, either for moving into production, entering into a joint venture or being acquired by a surrounding major within a few years.
TGR: There's a lot going on politically and financially around the globe right now. There is unrest in the Middle East, and Japan is grappling with the aftermath of natural disasters, as well as staggering national debt. What advice do you give investors in light of those macro conditions?
JH: I believe that investors should have a good hedge against inflation, and that their portfolios should be diversified across various commodities. Investors should also have some of their assets out of dollars and out of the banking system entirely. I am growing increasingly concerned that another currency or financial crisis is coming down the line. It's critical to balance where assets are placed and to have physical gold and silver in your possession. The financial landscape is deteriorating in the U.S., as well as many other countries.
TGR: Jason, thanks for the insights.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1301378700.php
Re: Silver Still Phase I ,Phase 2 when plus 50$(old high)
Quote:
Originally Posted by gunDriller
well, Jeez, silver is 3/4 of the way to $50.
ever been on a one-day car trip when you were 3/4 of the way there ?
that last 1/4 goes by real fast. silver only has to increase in price by 33%.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalsilver.html
and, looking at the historical charts, silver got to $25 solidly back in November 2010.
5 months ago. to get from $25 to $37.50 was about a 50% increase.
in other words, at the current rate of increase, silver will be at $50 in fewer than 5 months. :o
i wonder if the past typical "summer pullback" will happen this year.
I would say for sure that the first $50 is the hardest for silver. ;D
Re: Is Silver Entering Phase II Bull Market?
Quote:
Originally Posted by StackerKen
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugginator
Waitin for a pullback ;)
:ROFL:
Edit to add...so much that i decided to start a tread..... ;D
Great we need a bit more life around here.... |--0--|
http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1301340431.php
Re: Silver Still Phase I ,Phase 2 when plus 50$(old high)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=DhsNsTlJfH4
WB: JPM is in worse shape then we ever dared to hope.
This is what I am now hearing from traders on the floor. These traders are not even sure if Blythe knows the full extent of JPM’s silver exposure.
When I first started to realize that JPM has shorted far more silver than they could ever hope to cover, my first question was “why would they do that?” Not only that, why do it with a commodity where you must report your positions through the COT and Bank Participation Report? After all,the whole world can see what you are doing. [my added comment: Ted Butler included!]
Now I know the answer. According to Max Keiser and now a couple of other independent sources, it seems the reasons why first Bear Stearns and now JPM are so desperate to manipulate the price of silver down is due to the fact that BS and JPM shorted billions (yes billions not millions) in ounces of silver through their derivatives.
Just like Joe Conason at AIG, silver shorting through derivatives have caused literally billions in losses not the millions that we know about publicly. That is why JPM has been so desperate to manipulate the price of silver downward so blatantly. If I am right about this, then JPM will be dead when silver hits $60 or so. Based upon the COT and BPR, if silver hits $60, JPM will lose around an additional $6 billion dollars, a large number but not nearly large enough to bring down mighty JPM.
But what is not known is that due to the way that its derivatives are written, JPM’s losses are exponentional once silver breaks $36 or so. Rumors has it that JPM could be losing as much as $40 billion once silver is above $50. It has something to do with how the derivatives are written with payment tied to the price of silver.
Since JPM was a price manipulator with respectt to the price of silver, JPM assumed that any derivative payments tied to silver would be less than they would be tied to some other index like the CPI or TIPS implied inflation index. JPM’s inability to hold down the price of silver relative to other measures of inflation will cause unbelievable losses due to a mismatch in their derivative structures.
In essence,JPM has bet (a huge amount)through derivatives that silver will never outperform inflation. And why not,since JPM assumed that it will always be able to manipulate the price of silver. We have now come to understand that JPM’s loss exposure to silver is much greater than we have ever dared to hope.
WB: In an effort to clear up some recent confusion regarding my latest posting, I will try to explain what I have recently uncovered.
JPM’s current short silver position is estimated to be approximately 150 million ounces down from the recent 180 million ounces in August. The losses from these positions are easy to figure out. For every $10 rise in the price of silver, JPM will lose $1.5 billion. But what I have recently discovered is that through its derivative positions, JPM will lose about 5 times that amount ounce the price of silver is above $36. And ounce silver is above $45 dollars, JPM’s losses will increase to 8 times the amount of losses in their short positions. The reason is that as the price of silver increases, certain provisions get activated which multiplies the losses.
One reader asks the question why isnt the price of JPM going down to reflect the losses in silver. My answer is that the price of silver is not high enough to begin to trigger losses in their derivative positions. But once silver approaches this critical level say around $36, then you should begin to see the price of JPM stock begin to reflect these losses.
In fact, traders are saying that once the price of silver surpasses the stock price of JPM, then for every dollar the price of silver go up, JPM should lose around 70 cents or so. This means that if silver hits $60, JPM will be a single digit stock.
JPM market cap is around $170 billion. If silver losses are as great as $40 billion in cash , then JPM will be insolvent. Period.
Peter H.
maxkeiser.com/2011/03/09/jp-morgans-losses-are-exponentional-once-silver-breaks-36/
Re: Silver Still Phase I ,Phase 2 when plus 50$(old high)
One of Lindsay Williams better clips.......at the end he is saying(with proof) that the elite are now buying...............you guessed it .....SILVER
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=HMMu0ID1yYI
Re: Silver Still Phase I ,Phase 2 when plus 50$(old high)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Serpo
Takes too long to download. But what took them so long? Was $10 2 1/2 years ago too cheap, or was $4-5/oz 10-12 years ago too cheap? Can't waste expensive vault space with something as ridiculously cheap as silver?
What is the evidence the elite started buying silver?
