Harry Dent vs Mike Maloney on the price of gold

I just listened to a long advertisement in which economist and prognosticator Harry S. Dent predicted that gold bullion is in a bubble that will burst soon and may fall down to $250.

Compare that to Mike Maloney who created the Hidden Secrets of Money videos, who says gold is being manipulated low right now but will break free and soar to $5000 and continue higher as the dollar collapses.

The interesting thing about these two is that they both claim they are analyzing natural cycles.

I usually enjoy this kind of scenario--two respected men study the cycles and come up with opposite conclusions. But for this one, the stakes are so high that I find it more nerve-wracking than fun.

Is anyone willing to cast education-inspired mud on either contestant?
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Oops! I had Maloney's URL wrong. It's HiddenSecretsOfMoney.com, not of wealth. Excellent informational videos.

http://olagustafsson.com/wp-content/...ng-mud-big.jpg

Heres some for Harry Dent

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Originally Posted by KenJackson

I just listened to a long advertisement in which economist and prognosticator Harry S. Dent predicted that gold bullion is in a bubble that will burst soon and may fall down to $250.

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Dent is saying that gold will fall to a price that is far below the cost of production for every gold miner on earth.

He's welcome to say that, as long as I don't have to expend time listening.


The other guy (Maloney?) is trying to model something that is very difficult to model.

We don't know how markets behave when we can't even get information about the activity of the largest market participant, the US gov. and the corporations that do their bidding to implement the 'Strong Dollar Policy'.

It's obviously predictable that predictable & inevitable shortages would drive the price higher.


The discussion of 'how high' has to take into account manipulation. Which is basically conducted as a covert operation. They don't share all their detailed meeting notes.

So you're modelling something that is partially hidden.


Jim Rickards does a good job of currency modelling and also has an insider's perspective. (Very high level security clearance, etc.)

He has one exercise that is archived at King World News where he maps $ reserves and gold reserves and comes up with $8000 to $15000, that range.

However, he bases that work on official US gold reserve numbers. Which most of the members here suspect/ know to be false.


The desire to exit dollars has already started.

All the time, we hear sort-of-newscasts about the "hunt for a world reserve currency" - that don't mention gold, or silver. that seems wierd.

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Originally Posted by gunDriller

Dent is saying that gold will fall to a price that is far below the cost of production for every gold miner on earth.

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That alone is no refutation. If enough people wanted to get rid of their gold, the price would drop below the price of production because there would be no need to produce more to fill all demand. I guess that's what Dent is predicting.

Up until I heard his ad, I thought everyone was in agreement. James Rickards, Mike Maloney, James Turk, John Rubino, Michael MacDonald, Christopher Whitestone, Eric Sprott and Rick Rule, as far as I know, are in general agreement that there's going to be a currency crisis soon which will cause a rush of people trying to transfer some wealth into precious metals. This will drive demand way above supply and the price will go up.

So I was surprised to hear someone with a different view. And he appears not to be just a bum on the street--apparently a lot of people pay to read what he thinks. And you cannot deny that he's right that the shape of the curve of the price of gold looks parabolic up until 2011, just like the many other bubble curves he showed. (Even though he failed to explain how this bubble fell a little and leveled off while all the others suddenly plummeted.)

His certainly seems to be the more positive view--that we're not headed for a life-altering world crisis, but just a worse-than-average downturn in the normal cycle. But if that were true, it seems likely that more than one gifted economist would figure it out.

The price of paper gold depends on the supply of paper gold. What are the limits to the supply of paper gold?

In reality, predictions must take into account all factors that may hasten or slow the inevitable divergence.

The rush out of gold (mostly paper) will be precipitated by the collapse of credit as currency and the necessity to cover debt. The price of gold will plummet.

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Originally Posted by Carl

The rush out of gold (mostly paper) will be precipitated by the collapse of credit as currency and the necessity to cover debt. The price of gold will plummet.

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You keep talking about this collapse of credit, but I have not heard any reason for it to collapse. The cop in charge is the bankers and they don't seem to care much about standards in accounting. The Fed has an unlimited checkbook and buys the bankers instruments at the marked up value they put on them.

What will force the Fed to sell on the market?

i think we are trying to imagine things that may be difficult to visualize, partially related to lack of information.

it's like trying to do a GIS model of planet earth, but not being allowed to see the plat maps in some areas because of "national security".


i think one of the guides for precious metal valuations is, what they would buy in the past, when silver and gold were widely used currencies.

i think one of the yard-sticks for an ounce of gold is, a really good men's suit.

so, if we take Jim Rickards' $8000/ $15,000 estimate ($11,500), i wonder - is that how much a good men's suit will cost, if gold goes to $11,500 ?

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Originally Posted by gunDriller

i think one of the yard-sticks for an ounce of gold is, a really good men's suit.

so, if we take Jim Rickards' $8000/ $15,000 estimate ($11,500), i wonder - is that how much a good men's suit will cost, if gold goes to $11,500 ?

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Good question. I recall a professor during college teaching this very same thing many years ago. He said, historically, one ounce of gold will buy a man a nice suit. He advocated always having an ounce ready, so if you find yourself unemployed, you can buy a suit and go out and get a job.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gunDriller

i think one of the yard-sticks for an ounce of gold is, a really good men's suit.

so, if we take Jim Rickards' $8000/ $15,000 estimate ($11,500), i wonder - is that how much a good men's suit will cost, if gold goes to $11,500 ?

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we won't be wearing good men's suits. we'll all be in body armor.