It is about to break $500!. Had a good week. Is Silverbach here?
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It is about to break $500!. Had a good week. Is Silverbach here?
I hope this price holds until I can make it to the shop later in the week, as ive got some nice pall maples id love to trade for some gold.
Maybe I'm crazy but what's the advantage of trading palladium for gold?Quote:
Originally Posted by coopersmith
I see gold as being more recognizable. I bought these particular maples for $360 + $30 premium. They have appreciated $110 in the last 6 months.
Palladium is $504 right now. It has really recovered well after late 2008 (~$180).
I think it was down to 158 even... I bought 1.5 ounces at 230... But I am holding it for the long haul... I am thinking $10.000/ounce, but I might get greedy/nervous before that!Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnQPublic
This thread needs a chart:
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/pd1825nyb.gif
IMO we are still in the early stages of a steep parabolic curve...
It is nce and smooth. Certainaly not a spike.Quote:
Originally Posted by Neuro
As silverbach would say, It has been the most predictable metal since its fall.
Nero, only 1.5oz? ??? with all the interest i thought you would be in it for a lot more than that. It is highly speculative but the history is there, IMHO its a better play than silver at this point. My only regret is that i didnt buy in at those low 158$ levels a few years back. I would dare to say that it is still a bargain at these levels, but personally wouldn't buy in over 500$. If we see metals take a bite on the next correction and PD dips back into the 450$ range, might be a good idea to think about getting a few more of those maples. I liked Silverbachs idea of buying into the pool account on monex. The yearly global consumption of palladium is 7.5 million ounces, in 2006 the russians where said to have about 15million ounces left, a 2 year supply, now it is reported that there stock pile is depleted.......For me the highly speculative part has to do with believing the reports, russia, cold fusion...bla bla bla bla bla. Who knows what they have, send me an Fn picture and i might believe! Whatever the case may be palladium has been the best performing metal so far!
Silverbach is on the other forum. he posted on Some BS threads, nothing to do with palladium.
For your palladium reading enjoyment.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1857...-even-stronger
Russia's Norilsk Nickel Mine (NILSY.PK) is the world's largest nickel mine, with its by-product, palladium, accounting for 45% of the world’s production.
Recent termination of Russian government palladium stockpile sales, due to depletion of the stockpile, is just one of the reasons why palladium has extremely bullish supply/demand fundamentals, and why palladium performed the best among all four precious metals in 2009.
Reduction of palladium production from the Norilsk Mine could further restrain the supply, and may prompt major industry users to panic hoard as they did in 2000/2001.
One must correctly project Norilsk Nickel's 2010 metals production, to have an accurate picture of global platinum and palladium supply/demand outlook for 2010.
Norilsk's Russian operation has two divisions, the Polar Division, which produces platinum and palladium as by-products, and the Kola Division, which handles only nickel and copper.
The Polar Division proven reserve mineral ore contents are as follows:
Ore Type Ni (%) Cu (%) Pt (g/ton) Pd (g/ton) Cu/Ni Ratio
Rich 2.86% 3.98% 1.49 7.04 1.392
Cuprous 1.13% 4.58% 2.57 10.80 4.053
Disseminated 0.49% 0.89% 1.45 3.97 1.816
There are mainly two types of ores, as the third, called disseminated, is insignificant:
1. Rich type, which is rich in nickel but poor in copper, platinum and palladium content.
2. Cuprous type, the opposite, poor in nickel, but rich in copper, platinum and palladium.
In the past, I pointed out that Norilsk was switching to the rich nickel ore to cut costs and increase nickel revenue, or possibly due to the geologic structure of the ore body being mined.
The effect of the production switch is that for the same amount of nickel, much less copper, platinum and palladium will be produced.
The data in the past two years and Norilsk’s own projection for 2010 have confirmed my predictions of this, made in previous posts. The ore type switch can be closely monitored by looking at the Copper/Nickel production ratio and seeing how it changes over time.
Here are the Norilsk Nickel Russian production numbers (Polar + Kola Divisions) over the years, plus 2010 projections:
Year Ni (tons) Cu (tons) Pt (troy oz) ±% Pd (troy oz) ±% Cu/Ni
2005 243,000 427,000 751,000 3,133,000 1.757
2006 244,000 425,000 752,000 +0.13% 3,164,000 +0.99% 1.742
2007 234,454 404,465 727,000 -3.32% 3,049,000 -3.63% 1.725
2008 232,302 400,338 632,000 -13.1% 2,702,000 -11.4% 1,723
2009 232,813 382,443 636,000 +0.63% 2,676,000 -0.96% 1.643
2010* 234,000 363,000 655,000 +2.99% 2,715,000 +1.46% 1.551
(* Based on Norilsk Nickel projection for 2010)
We are interested in palladium, so we want to see only the productions of the Polar Division. After subtracting the Kola Division, here are the numbers for the Polar Division:
Year Ni (tons) Cu (tons) Pt (troy oz) ±% Pd (troy oz) ±% Cu/Ni
2005 123,000 361,000 751,000 3,133,000 2.935
2006 122,000 351,000 752,000 +0.13% 3,164,000 +0.99% 2.877
2007 119,000 338,000 727,000 -3.32% 3,049,000 -3.63% 2.840
2008 122,000 339,000 632,000 -13.1% 2,702,000 -11.4% 2.779
2009 122,813 321,443 636,000 +0.63% 2,676,000 -0.96% 2.617
2010* 124,000 302,000 655,000 +2.99% 2,715,000 +1.46% 2.435
(* Based on Norilsk Nickel projection for 2010)
As shown in the chart, nickel production has remained pretty flat over the years. However the copper/nickel ratio consistently dropped. The drop of the Cu/Ni ratio accelerated since 2008 and continues to go significantly down in 2010 projections.
As a result, I predict Norilsk’s palladium production in 2010 will not go up slightly as projected by Norilsk Nickel itself, but rather, should continue to drop significantly from 2009 levels, commensurate with the drop of the copper/nickel production ratio.
I am predicting a palladium production level at 2.55M ounces for 2010, and platinum at 600K ounces.
Is it ridiculous to expect that readers should believe my prediction, rather than Norilsk’s own prediction? From early 2008 on, based on my observation of the ore type switch, I insisted on my prediction of Norilsk palladium production at 2.7M level for 2008.
But Norilsk has re-iterated that it’s on target to reach 2008 palladium production levels of 3.02M to 3.07M ounces. They still insist that previous full year projections were unchanged. In Q3 they did not revise annual guidance either. When the final result of 2008 came out to be 2.7M ounces, I was right, Norilsk Nickel was wrong. Why they insist on a wrong and overly optimistic guidance, is beyond me.
The bullish case for global palladium markets now looks even stronger. Investors in the world’s only primary palladium producers, Stillwater Mining (SWC) and North American Palladium (PAL), will stand to profit from the expected palladium price surge in 2010.
After falling continuously for 8 days, for a healthy correction from recent high, it’s now time to buy back these two stocks, SWC and PAL.
Applause for Answer2Me for his post.
Palladium looks very solid right now trading at around 520/ounce. I would expect a pullback at around 580 (March 2008 high) before it goes stratospheric! It would still keep it's nice parabolic shape if it goes down to around 500 from 580...
Anyway I guess I should have more Palladium to match all the touting I am doing for it. ;) Anyway I just bought it like a fun play a year ago, and it has been fun following it... Maybe I buy a few ounces more if my above prediction goes in (at around 500)... Of course it would be even more fun to have more when it goes to the moon!
In Asia and the Middle East, there is growing demand for palladium in a surprising area: as an alloy, especially a gold alloy. For exotic gold alloys, such as 19k purple gold, palladium is frequently the metal of choice and often, necessity. Some metallurgists spend years perfecting the right alloy, so as to allow for just the right color, ductility, tensility, and other properties. Palladium seems to be used more frequently than other, cheaper metals in alloyed jewelry. Exotic gold-palladium alloys are popular in high fashion jewelry and among the ultra-wealthy. Palladium alloys in general are attracting attention in Abu Dhabi, Singapore, Hong Kong, and other centers of wealth in the east.
http://www.leehwajewellery.com/
Lee Hwa is truly one of the finest goldsmiths ever. He's invented new alloys––––such as silver-titanium, green gold, black gold, and purple gold––––that were once deemed chemically impossible. Presently, he's focusing much of his current endeavors on palladium.
An applaud for you to Jedem!!! Never heard of purple gold! Black gold should be popular in the gulf states!
I have read that a lot of jewlers are using palladium as a subsitute for platnium, since platinum is so expensive now. Keep this in mind when you see palladium trade for more US$ than platnium.Quote:
Originally Posted by jedemdasseine
Nero,
It is fun this palladium market! Something good to watch as we weight for the big boys to do there thing. Im in, if your prediction holds true, i to will add to my position.
Gotta get me some of that purple gold!
Be cool, 8)
answer2me
Palladium is strong today despite general PM weakness it is still holding up nicely at 524 now. Why can't we have Palladium in the PM bar at this forum?
wow it is really rocking now 539 (was up to 545)...
I woke up to $550 palladium this morning.
Too bad I only own one Pd Maple :-\
I know. My problem is that I don't know where to pick up Palladium in my city...Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnQPublic
+21.00 as of 2:50pm est
WOW!
[img width=600 height=380]http://www.kitco.com/images/live/plad.gif[/img]
Why does the Palladium chart look like a seismograph? :imskerd:
Wondered the same thing Horn, it is an odd looking chart.
Because it is about to erupt! :boomQuote:
Originally Posted by Horn
Lets wait for that 2008 high of 580$ for the pull back. If it can hold strong, 600$ will be its next target, after that...........
I think because you need to bid in specific sized increments (maybe $1), i.e., if Pd is $541.00, the next bid is $542.00, not $541.01 . This makes each new bid look like a step instead of a smooth curve upwards.Quote:
Originally Posted by Horn
rock on! to my 5 ounces of pamp pd!
you rich bastard!Quote:
Originally Posted by chad
DON'T HATE THE PLAYA, HATE THE GAME. ;D
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Consen....html?x=0&.v=1
Quote:
Consensus Appears to Be Emerging on Palladium Outlook
COLUMBUS, MT--(Marketwire - 04/15/10) - STILLWATER MINING COMPANY (NYSE:SWC - News) today commented that a consensus appears to be forming around the tightening market outlook for palladium supplies. The company issued a press release last week in conjunction with the mailing of its Annual Report to Shareholders in which it quoted the company's chairman and CEO, Frank McAllister, as saying, "a fundamental palladium market deficit potentially lies directly ahead which will leave incremental palladium supply reliant on existing stocks, recycling supply, ... and still [will fall] short of meeting demand." Included in the company's Annual Report is a section entitled, "The Case for Palladium" which elaborates on the supply and demand factors which contribute to the company's view.
On Tuesday, Bloomberg quoted Neville Nicholau, the chief executive officer of Anglo Platinum Ltd. -- the largest South African PGM producer -- noting, "Palladium may be in deficit for most of the next decade as Russia depletes inventories and uses for the metal increase." Anglo Platinum produces 21 percent of the world's palladium output.
Similarly, Derek Engelbrecht, marketing group executive of Impala Platinum, in February of this year commented that he expected the palladium market to swing from a surplus of 305,000 ounces in 2009 to a deficit of 810,000 ounces in 2010. He also projected that the palladium price could double over the next five years -- the palladium price at the time he made this comment was about $430 per ounce, compared to $545 per ounce Wednesday afternoon in London.
And the president of Audi America, Johan de Nysschen, was quoted in Automotive News on Tuesday as saying the carmaker is "short of everything" in the U.S., referring to a sharp rebound in 2010 auto sales. Commenting on this remark, Automotive News noted, "...one of our strongest convictions this year is for a rebound in auto-related PGM demand as worldwide vehicle production rises, forcing a restocking of the metal inventories run down in 2009. The Audi comments reinforce our view that there is limited excess supply in the system: with inventories low, returning U.S. auto demand this year had caused a much greater production response. U.S. car and truck production year to date (April 10) is up 63.4% from a year earlier. Given that the U.S. is primarily a gasoline market, this is good news mainly for palladium, but platinum also reaps some benefits from the heavy-duty sector."
$557 tonight. Palladium price is like California RE prices- it never goes down :).
Probably I missed the pullback, seems like it is going to zoom past 580, any day now. Damn it went up to 560 then pulled back to 515 and now it is up to the 560 level again. We need pics of some cold fusion rockets to get it back to 500 now...Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnQPublic
Earlier today it was up and touching at the multiyear high at around 580... Either it will go down sharply from here to around 500, before it blasts through this level, or it will go through now...
I am leaning towards it going through now, with a peak this year around 1000-1100...
I hope you are right !Quote:
Originally Posted by Neuro
If gold moves more slowly (as has been the case) we may be able to trade Pd for gold close to 1:1 pretty soon!
Did anyone load up on Palladium today at sub 500?
Damn I was just to damn busy today to go and get some more!
watch what it will do before you buy in, i always buy when it starts to go up after a major correction. it might dip a bit more. I am watching........
PAL & SWC took some serious haircuts.
Where is our cheerleader for these? Remember the leveraged buy plan he proposed?
that would be our man silverbach who is still leveraged to hell!
A recent quote:
"When it goes against me, on the way it moves down, I am forced to periodically sell some to reduce the margin pressure and maintain the margin ratio at tolerable level. Of course the gain will be destroyed.
But the good thing is when it moves back up again you can then aggressively add position using increased margin buying power again. You probably end up paying a bit more than where you sold buying back the same shares. It's a reasonable loss due to extreme volatility. But overall, if the big trend is correct, you still make a lot of money using the margin strategy.
A portion of my MONEX palladium pool positions are probably sold. I plan to buy back when palladium is back to $450 and I plan to add even more cash and buying more aggressively, because the strategy is still working so far."
Come on, how can you not admire the man for trying.
Yeah selling due to margin calls is a Sisyfos job. In some ways I do a bit of margin trading sometimes too, by buying food and stuff on wifes cc, when I think metals are very cheap, and I use the cash for that, only ones did it backfire, and I had to sell the low for cash, it hurts like hell, and still it was less than a kilo of silver...
Gigantic cup and handle forming? Seems like we start getting back over 500 again...
Palladium seems to be making a move in the last few weeks. I was hoping for another chance to buy some in the 300's, but it doesn't look like it's going to happen anytime soon.
I sold out my PALL holdings today. Bought back in July (+$10/share 44-55). :)
Silverbach was right about buying Pd on the dips and selling on the rise up. It has been like clockwork the past couple years.