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have any of you thought about what it could possibly be like post crash. will it be like most preppers think - trading junk silver for bread and gas? will a new currency emerge and will there be an exchange - old fiat for new fiat? im just wondering about a few things because im a landlord with 4 houses. what good will it be if im receiving old fiat for rents? theres alot of questions but cant think of them all right now.
http://dianasaurdishes.com/wp-conten...-check-out.jpgQuote:
Originally Posted by 97guns
WTSHTF the grocery store clerk will not be reading the date on your "silver" dime nor giving you more then ten cents worth for it. Same thing at the gas station.
:oo-->
A landlord I know here in Seattle will accept PMs for rent right now.
As long as he does the proper paperwork its legal.
I don't think we can expect a drone in a chain store to know anything about real money so I would look for a private owner operator, now and when TSHTF.
I met a lady in Detroit several years ago who only accepted PMs for rent for her rental units. She did not seem displeased with the exchange rate. Now whether her tenants were happy is more debatable.
Rather it depends on knowing who you are and knowing where you are that counts.Quote:
Originally Posted by Eyebone
Yeah, lots of people think it's going to be business as usual except you pay for your Starbucks with a gold coin or a chicken or something. In fact every collapse is unpredictable, even though they are similar in a general way.
I think immediately post-SHTF, barter & PM's will prevail. After (hopefully) TPTB are dead or irrelevant, PMs will be the currency of choice.
Problem is, there isn't enough gold/silver in private hands to allow an economy of 300,000,000+ people to function properly.
If there's ever a true crash of the system, don't count on getting much of anything from any store after about the 2nd day.
We'll probably see a rise in bartering and garage/yard sales.
Maybe not the big chain stores but if the dollar is devaluing on a daily basis, you can expect the locally owned stores and shops to accept hard money.Quote:
Originally Posted by Book
In the 70s, some of the gas stations had huge queues lined up for people paying with paper money. Then they had a pump with no line for people paying with silver coinage.
That seems likely to repeat...
Options:
1) Use PMs directly at a store to purchase items
2) Use PMs directly as a "barter" item with another person
3) Go to the local PM/Coin/Exchange dealer and get X% of spot for the current paper currency. then run out to the store and purchase goods
Most likely order of acceptance will be: #3, then #2 then #1, especially if you are talking about big chain stores. As Silver Rocket Bitches! stated, a smaller privately owned market will be far more likely to take PMs directly, than a Krogers. . .
But if I owned a big grocery chain, I'd set up a company owned assay booth in every store so the people could trade their metal for paper, and then turn around and buy stuff from my stores with the paper. That way I could increase my profits. Make ~10% on the metal exchange and another ~10% on the food selling. .
Are you Joeking? ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe King
The production rate of gold and silver per capita has kept up since 1903.
Ok, fair enough. But who holds it all? Would all the gold held only by governments be sufficient for the job? If so, coin away! :)Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnQPublic
Just can't get my head around this notion of a dollar crash. What country is going to back their currency with hard assets so as to make it more attractive than the USD? What country has more resources than the U.S.?
We probably have the largest amount of stored gold, we have inground gold, we have inground oil and natural gas, we have inground minerals, we border the largest fresh water lakes in the world, our military exceeds the rest of the world's military combined, we have the most pervasive educational infrastructure with the highest literacy rate, and the world's best hospitals, medicine, and research.
This superpower status we enjoy is what will allow us to continue to gradually bleed the dollar for many years to come. I just don't see where anyone has presented a plausible crash scenario, including our massive future debt obligations. The largest estimate I've seen of our unfunded future liabilities of the next 75 years is $225T. Starting with a M3 money supply of $15T, complete monetization would result 94% inflation over 75 years, but that's what we've experienced over the last 75 years with no USD crash.
The plausible threats to U.S. world dominance is China, and they are generations away from pulling it all together. The only USD crash I could imagine would be an orchestrated sabotage by China and Russia working in cooperation with a few other resource-rich nations.
You see what I mean? Everybody assumes nothing will change except you pay for stuff with gold coins or chickens or something. Yes, 94% of the value of the money has been stolen in the last 75 years, but that doesn't mean we can tolerate another 94% being stolen. For one thing, that theft required the tax rate to go from 8% to something over 50%, and another round of inflation would drive the tax rate over 100%, meaning if you earn a dollar you owe more than a dollar in taxes. Jvoking suggests that supermarket managers would buy PMs - Supermarkets would close because the trucks can't get gas to deliver the food and the food rots in the foreign countries where they grew. The managers may or may not know enough to deal in precious metals.
There is one thing about a collapse: it's a collapse!
The U.S. is a federation and not a country. No federation anywhere, at any time, ever has been or ever will be a sovereign country. That includes the U.K., Swiss Federation, Canada, Mexico, E.U., Russia.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sparky
As these federations are not sovereign then they have no need to act in a sovereign manner. A sovereign is responsible. A federation is not. Until there is some semblance of responsibility no federation is ever going to win at the money game.
Instead of money the script you are used to I call "corporate coupons", issued by corporations and for corporations. If in doubt check 12 USC 411 where only banks and agents of banks may possess federal reserve notes.
The dollar crash happened 80 years ago. Some people still deny it.
I don't know; who would have thought we could ever lose 94% once? Look at it this way: The dollar has lost 50% of its value 4 times in the last 100 years: From 1910 to 1930, then from 1930-1970, then from 1970 to 1980, then from 1980 to 1995. In five more years it will have lost half its value for a fifth time. And this can happen without additional taxation (although that's coming too). My point is that I don't see any fundamentals pointing to an end to the inflation cycle that's we've been operating under for the last century.Quote:
Originally Posted by Saul Mine
Fiat's a human invention, like the wheel. Once you have invented it, it doesn't go away; it just gets re-made in different forms. We're not going back to a barter system, though I could see a distribution breakdown where some bartering might take place for days or weeks, which is why I don't think having extra "stuff" on hand is such a bad idea.
I could see a temporary distribution collapse, but not a dollar collapse. Just a dollar erosion. I don't see supermarkets dealing with PM in lieu of currency. I've tried to envision how that scenario would be plausible, but now that fiat is digital and the government is willing to step in and back it regardless of its long-term inflationary impact, I just can't see it. At least not until there is some other sovereignty that can step in and offer a more sound fiat option.Quote:
Originally Posted by Saul Mine
As for gas stations accepting PM in the 1970's, they continued to take cash, and I'm sure they were only taking PM at an exchange that was very profitable to them. I'm sure you could get a store owner to take silver right now at $10/ounce.
Your entire argument is based on semantics. You can call nations and currency anything you like. If the dollar crashed 80 years ago, then I'd say we have nothing to fear. I've been exchanging paper fiat for real goods my entire life.Quote:
Originally Posted by palani
preps and barter are for during SHTF
PMs are for AFTER SHTF when things begin to normalize, so you have a vehicle to transfer your pre-SHTF wealth into the new system.
I dont know why people think theres going to be this mass junk silver trading going on. How many people in your daily life do you know that even has a clue as to what a silver merc is or what its worth today? What makes you think they are going to have any after SHTF to give you to buy some beans off of you? Are you going to sell your last pound of rice for 5 mercs and a 1/10 panda?
Common goods will be traded for common goods. You've got and excess of rice, I've got an excess of flour, we swap. This is assuming a total collapse of any currency trading. Maybe youll get some jewlery if you're lucky.
Eventualy a new currency system, whether fiat or not, will ineveitably take over. This is what your PM's are for.
What you're saying is that we're simply reaching the point of diminishing returns.Quote:
Originally Posted by Saul Mine
i.e. if the first 94% took 75 years, the next 94% will take just a few.
http://www.topnews.in/files/bank-robbery..jpgQuote:
Originally Posted by Apparition
[img width=600 height=401]http://media.wsbt.com/images/Elkhart+Chase+Bank+Robbery+3.JPG[/img]
:D
My entire argument is based upon communism. Turns out you have been acting as an agent for the federal reserve all your life and from a private property perspective you own nothing (fulfilling the requirements of the first plank of the communist manifesto).Quote:
Originally Posted by Sparky
My observation is not politically correct because most people just think communism morphed into environmental whack-ism and forget that a forest starts with a single tree.
WTSHTF the grocery store clerk will not be reading the date on your "silver" dime because they'll be too busy trying to count the zeros on your bank note. ;DQuote:
Originally Posted by Book
If I've been an agent for the Federal Reserve all my life, but I have been comfortable, well-fed, lived, laughed, loved, learned, taught, sang, and danced, how has a dollar crash impacted my life? It's not really a crash until it has some impact on those essentials. Call it what you will.Quote:
Originally Posted by palani
These are the skills you are going to pass along to your children to assure their survival?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sparky
The majority of people having taken that position is essentially why we are where we are.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sparky
You mean because they're happy? You can experience all of those things without being materialistic or in debt.Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe King
Look, this is a discussion about a USD crash. It's not about survival or preparation or sheep. I was simply making a counterpoint to the suggestion that the USD crashed 80 years ago. It didn't. Because if it did, it really wasn't so bad after all, and we should welcome another 80 years of crashing. Crash implies a severe and disruptive market dislocation. I've never had a retailer hesitate to accept my FRNs in exchange for goods. The day that they do, we can start to consider it a crash.
For some reason, this thread makes me think of the genre of comedy called "redneck jokes". Except here I would like to substitute "redneck" with "FEDneck", as in:
If you plan to wait until your FRN is not accepted by a cashier before you worry about a dollar crash.... you might be a FEDneck....... here's your sign.... ;D
The point I was getting at is that people have been comfortable enough to take the position that they hadn't needed to worry about what they're gov is actually doing in their names.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sparky
That's all.
I totally agree with you on that part. And there will be a price to pay. I just think it will be more in the form of a prolonged dollar erosion rather than an actual collapse.Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe King
Just how much longer do you think it will take to lose the last few cents worth of it?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sparky
The long slow devaluation has been on-going for a long time as it is. We're fast approaching "end game".
It will take 1-2 generations for a viable alternative to the U.S. reign on fiat currency. So I'd say this could go on for 20-40 years, which would be one more complete economic cycle. So I say we get through this crisis painfully over the next 5-10 years, and then maybe our sovereignty will be at risk some time in the middle of this century.Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe King
Our crumbling economic infrastructure is enormous. There's a lot of inertia to overcome.
You don't see buildings dismantled brick by brick these days. Once the foundation and support has been breached gravity will take care of the inertia.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sparky
Whether a frog is microwaved or slow boiled the result is the same.
Exactly. It's slow at first, but eventually reaches a pont where it all just suddenly falls apart.Quote:
Originally Posted by palani
^^ That is funny.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gknowmx
during the banking crisis in September October 2008, it got to a point where shippers would not accept a Letter of Credit (LoC) at the docks in Long Beach.
the LoC is sort of like a purchase order, it's an agreement to pay, backed by a bank.
so shipping companies refused to unload cargo, including food destined for LA.
i think the dollar crash and the associated banking crashes will result in more stuff not getting unloaded, at the docks.
if i ran a shipping company, i'd keep some money in gold in order to keep my product moving at the dock.
Mike Ruppert sometimes uses the term, "LA is a city of 12 million people living in the middle of the desert, with a 3 day supply of food."
the dollar crash will interrupt our Just-in-Time society.
i remember the justification for Just-in-Time sometime in the '80's, when it was first pushed in the US. "it can lower our inventory costs".
this accounting concept, when applied in LA, creates a real interesting situation when that supply chain gets interrupted.
People get whiney when their blood sugar gets low.
We're confusing crises, here. (A crisis identity crisis?)
During the fall of 2008, when the shippers were not accepting Letters of Credit, it was because they wanted dollars and there weren't enough dollars. They no longer wanted pieces of paper, they wanted FRNs! Do you see the irony?
From July 2008 through the October panic, the US Dollar Index soared 22%, from 72 to 88 in less than five months. Gold plummeted 30% from $1000 to $700. The entire world rushed to US dollars as a safe haven.
Now, I agree that we may be facing Just in Time distribution problems with food and other essential goods. And I agree our system is F'd up, and there is going to be a painful shakeout, and there's going to be a lot of people shocked when the curtain comes down.
But it ain't gonna be because of a USD collapse. At first, it will likely be due to a dollar shortage, where dollars become too valuable because people don't have enough of them. And then after they flood the system with dollars to meet the demand, it will lead to an eventual dilution of the dollar's buying power, perhaps over an entire decade. But expect it to be more insidious than a collapse. Expect it to lose 5-15% per year over an entire decade, so that in ten years it will have lost half of its current buying power. Simultaneously, other fiat currency may lose 60-80% of it's buying power over the same time, leaving the USD as the reigning currency champion, in a tournament of losers.
The dollar can't collapse unless all fiat currency goes away (which is an implausible scenario), or unless some other fiat currency takes its place.
The only scenario I see of another fiat currency taking its place would be through some orchestrated effort by other countries to topple the dollar, perhaps involving China and Russia. Even if the USD lost this currency battle, it would still be a competitive fight, and it would not render the USD crippled. More likely, it would end up like the British pound sterling of the past 75 years, wounded but not dead.
http://www.gutenberg.org/etext/6949
Quote:
"You can, indeed, arrange it so that
the people shall be forced to take a thousand _livres_ in paper for a
thousand _livres_ in specie; but you can never arrange it so that a
man shall be obliged to give a thousand _livres_ in specie for a
thousand _livres_ in paper,--in that fact is embedded the entire
question; and on account of that fact the whole system fails."
Quote:
Thus came a collapse in manufacturing and commerce, just as it had
come previously in France: just as it came at various periods in
Austria, Russia, America, and in all countries where men have tried to
build up prosperity on irredeemable paper.
Quote:
This great debtor class, relying on the multitude who could be
approached by superficial arguments, soon gained control. Strange as
it might seem to those who have not watched the same causes at work at
a previous period in France and at various times in other countries,
while every issue of paper money really made matters worse, a
superstition gained ground among the people at large that, if only
_enough_ paper money were issued and were more cunningly handled the
poor would be made rich.
Quote:
It decreed that any person selling gold or silver coin,
or making any difference in any transaction between paper and specie,
should be imprisoned in irons for six years:--that any one who refused
to accept a payment in _assignats_, or accepted _assignats_ at a
discount, should pay a fine of three thousand _francs_; and that any
one committing this crime a second time should pay a fine of six
thousand _francs_ and suffer imprisonment twenty years in irons.
Quote:
On August 1, 1795, this gold _louis_ of 25 _francs_ was
worth in paper, 920 _francs_; on September 1st, 1,200 _francs_; on
November 1st, 2,600 _francs_; on December 1st, 3,050 _francs_. In
February, 1796, it was worth 7,200 _francs_ or one franc in gold was
worth 288 _francs_ in paper. Prices of all commodities went up nearly
in proportion.
Quote:
He who in 1790 had borrowed
10,000 _francs_ could pay his debts in 1796 for about 35 _francs_.
Quote:
Nothing could better exemplify the saying of one of the most shrewd of
modern statesmen that "There will always be money."
Quote:
As a natural consequence a great debtor class grew rapidly, and this class
gave its influence to depreciate more and more the currency in which
its debts were to be paid.
Quote:
It ended in the complete financial, moral and political prostration of
France-a prostration from which only a Napoleon could raise it.
Comments on the French experiment with fiat that ended prior to the U.S. (un)civil war. Seems we are doomed to repeat history. Wonder who will represent Napoleon?Quote:
we shall see still more clearly the advantage of meeting a financial
crisis in an honest and straightforward way, and by methods sanctioned
by the world's most costly experience, rather than by yielding to
dreamers, theorists, phrase-mongers, declaimers, schemers, speculators
or to that sort of, "Reform" which is "the last refuge of a
scoundrel."
Jeez - nice clear explanation !Quote:
Originally Posted by Sparky
in 2010 when people fled to the dollar, it wasn't quite as traumatic for gold. looks like they fled to gold too.
wonder what will happen next ... :o