MUST READ: The Bursting of the Shale Gas Bubble
MUST READ: The Bursting of the Shale Gas Bubble
Filed in Energy by SRSrocco on November 9, 2013 •
The United States is heading straight into a disaster and doesn’t even know it. Except for a few analysts and a fraction of individuals who read alternative financial media, the rest of the public and majority of investors are completely in the dark.
The U.S. and world has been bamboozled by MSM and the Oil & Gas Industry to believe that Shale Energy is our new savior — a new energy revolution that will allow economic growth and prosperity to continue for another 100 years.
Unfortunately, data is finally coming out to reveal that the supposed Great Shale Gas Miracle is about to end.
I had a great conversation on the phone with energy analyst Bill Powers this week about his book, “Cold, Hungry and in the Dark” and his take on the shale gas industry. Bill Powers and Art Berman are two of the few voices who have been outspoken and quite skeptical of the overly optimistic forecasts by the shale industry.
Powers had an interview with The Energy Report called “Give Up the Shale Gas Fantasy & Profit When the Bubble Bursts.” In the interview he stated the following:
Bill Powers: More data points have come in supporting my views and making it very clear that the Fayetteville and Haynesville shales are now in decline and the Barnett had a very steep, 17% decline in H1/13 on a year-over-year (YOY) basis. It is now producing about 4.6 billion cubic feet a day (Bcf/day), which is substantially down from its peak of near 6 Bcf/day. The facts are starting to show that declines for the older shale plays such as the Barnett, Haynesville, Fayetteville and Woodford are very serious. More important, once production growth from the Marcellus slows down, it will no longer be able to offset declining production from shale plays as well as conventional, offshore, CBM and tight sands production, which are all in terminal decline.
The Energy Report: What other economic consequences do you see if and when your views become reality?
BP: I think it will be similar to the housing crisis, where a handful of people saw it coming and profited from it. There was significant evidence that housing prices were unsustainable, but most people were surprised when the housing bubble popped. People from Alan Greenspan to Ben Bernanke and others had a lot of information about the economy and how unsustainable house prices were, but did not want to talk about it publicly. There’s a saying that “the impossible can become the inevitable in the blink of an eye.” I think this will happen with natural gas. For example, in the first week of December 2000, gas prices went from around $4/Mcf to over $10/Mcf in only a few trading sessions. This was due to falling production, lower storage levels and a cold spell that set in across much of the United States. This price spike was the first of numerous spikes during the last decade.
(FULL INTERVIEW HERE)
I first came across Bill Powers work from his articles and interviews on Financial Sense Newshour. Furthermore, Jim Willie thinks Bill is one of the best energy analysts out there.
During our conversation, Bill explained just how bad the situation will become with the future shale gas supply. As he stated in his interview above, several of the shale gas fields are already in decline and there are only a few that are still growing. This has kept overall natural gas production in the United States from declining — so far.
Here are two charts of the four shale gas fields in decline that Powers spoke about in his interview:
The WoodFord Shale peaked in 2012, and the Barnett Shale at the end of 2011. The problem with shale gas wells is their high annual decline rates that can range from 40-60% per year. The only way to grow production is by massive drilling. However, at some point in time, the sweet spots are exploited and the field peaks and declines.
The Barnett Field located in Texas was the first shale gas field to be produced in a major way. The Barnett peaked in shale gas production in Nov 2011 at 6,330 MMcf/day or also stated as 6.33 billion cubic feet a day and at last count (per Powers interview) has declined to about 4.6 billion cubic feet a day.
Another huge problem from the shale gas companies is the price they have been receiving for natural gas has been below their break-even costs. Natural gas has been trading below $3-.3.5 mmbtu for several years, and the break-even for most of these companies is $6-7 mmbtu. This has put severe strain on these companies balance sheets as many are loaded with debt.
Bill told me that Chesapeake Energy has over $20 billion of debt ($23 billion according to YahooFinance) and the value of their reserves at current market prices is less than their debt. This will spell disaster for Chesapeake going forward. No wonder Chesapeake announced that it was laying off upwards of 2,000 people a few months ago.
Interestingly, Chesapeake’s stock was up 78% since the beginning of the year until this past week when it saw its share price decline 12% in three days on a negative press release.
Bill believes only a few energy stocks will benefit when the “Shale Gas Bubble Finally Bursts” as he puts it. He also believes prices of natural gas will rise considerably when U.S. natural gas production goes into a decline. However, higher gas prices will not bring on more supply — the same problem the United States suffered during the 2000-2008 time period as production declined during rising prices.
I highly recommend people to read Bill’s book, “Cold, Hungry in the Dark.” He original intentions for the book (with over 400 footnotes) was to have a public debate with the CEO of Chesapeake Energy, Aubrey McClendon. Unfortunately, McClendon stepped down before the book was released.
One of the interesting things about Powers, is that he firmly believes in the precious metals as an investment and store of value when things get rough in the future.
I plan on putting more of Bill’s work on this site as I believe a lot of investors who are invested in the energy sector, may indeed be holding onto energy stocks that are extremely over-valued.
YOU CAN FOLLOW BILL POWERS: AT TWITTER HERE
EMAIL ADDRESS: bill@bill-powers.com
Lastly, the peaking of Shale Gas & Oil will cause serious ramifications for the U.S. and rest of the world. I am putting together an article titled, “COLLAPSE ECONOMICS: Protect Your Wealth With Gold & Silver” explaining this in detail.
Most people including many of the gold and silver investors, are not prepared for this up coming economic collapse.
Re: MUST READ: The Bursting of the Shale Gas Bubble
No wonder there are cities that are outlawing fire burning stoves, gotta feed the beast.
Re: MUST READ: The Bursting of the Shale Gas Bubble
Quote:
Originally Posted by
General of Darkness
No wonder there are cities that are outlawing fire burning stoves, gotta feed the beast.
Huh? Fire burning stoves?
Re: MUST READ: The Bursting of the Shale Gas Bubble
Quote:
Originally Posted by
mamboni
Huh? Fire burning stoves?
Just one example. I guess I should have said banning SMOKE from stoves, same difference I guess.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nHn75o0sQQU
Re: MUST READ: The Bursting of the Shale Gas Bubble
"Another huge problem from the shale gas companies is the price they have been receiving for natural gas has been below their break-even costs. Natural gas has been trading below $3-.3.5 mmbtu for several years, and the break-even for most of these companies is $6-7 mmbtu. This has put severe strain on these companies balance sheets as many are loaded with debt."
Well, this explains the production declines, doesn't it?
Re: MUST READ: The Bursting of the Shale Gas Bubble
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SWRichmond
"Another huge problem from the shale gas companies is the price they have been receiving for natural gas has been below their break-even costs. Natural gas has been trading below $3-.3.5 mmbtu for several years, and the break-even for most of these companies is $6-7 mmbtu. This has put severe strain on these companies balance sheets as many are loaded with debt."
Well, this explains the production declines, doesn't it?
No, production declines are due to the rapid depletion rates of these fracked wells, upwards of 40-60% per year. A typical oil well might deplete at 2-4%. The US shale oil/fracking producers need $6 per mmbtu just to get to positive cash flow. Presently, despite the temporary production glut, these US producers are net negative $35 billions. Their debts are larger than the value of the reserves. Because of the rapid depletion, they have to increase the number of drilling rigs every year, which soon become unsustainable. In sum, US natural gas industry is a classic Ponzi, financed by debt borrowed on the cheap, and no prospect of ever becoming profitable, with a reserve base that has virtually peaked and will go into rapid depletion decline within the next 2-3 years.
Everywhere you look, the entire US economy has been artificially propped up by borrowing production from the future, by creating debt. It is the world's largest hedge fund. Sooner or later, the cash flows go crunch as the debt comes do and then there's all hell to pay. All paper wealth is at risk, because every paper asset is tied to every other. We are in for one hell of a hangover.
Re: MUST READ: The Bursting of the Shale Gas Bubble
Quote:
Originally Posted by
mamboni
Huh? Fire burning stoves?
I bet Chad has at least a couple of different versions of fire burning stoves, perhaps he can fill us in in the matter.
Re: MUST READ: The Bursting of the Shale Gas Bubble
get your pre ban wood stoves while you can. they never cease to amaze me with their regulations.
http://www.offthegridnews.com/2013/1...urning-stoves/
Re: MUST READ: The Bursting of the Shale Gas Bubble
Quote:
Originally Posted by
chad
Note Ragnar Benson himself weighing in the comments section. One of the do-good libtards even posted something like, "I can't wait until your generation dies off" TRANSLATION: Old farts like you are standing in the way of our collectivist utopia
One comment is a hoot: "Woodsmoke is assault (on my lungs)"
Re: MUST READ: The Bursting of the Shale Gas Bubble
Quote:
Originally Posted by
chad
Yeah, all of my neighbors heat with wood and they're using old stoves that won't make the cut. These folk need to heat with wood - it's a cost of living thing. This law will cause major hardship for these folk. Fucking government should at least help folk transition to a new clean burning stove with subsidies. After all, the government has $trillions for the fucking banks, but no money to help the people who can use the help?
Re: MUST READ: The Bursting of the Shale Gas Bubble
Quote:
This law will cause major hardship for these folk.
But we have a solution for that, we call it Agenda 21 - 'these folk' can simply move into one of our beautyful new hi-rise apartment buildings in the middle of the major cities where everything is so convenient we're eliminating parking spaces* since you don't need a car anymore!
*I'm seeing this loss of parking d/t locally to the degree I double my price for anyone d/t since it's such a major pita to find a parking space when making a service call there - EVERYTIME I go through d/t I'm seeing parking spaces along the streets being eliminated right and left, PLUS the installation of fucking parking meters in peripheral residential areas where formerly there were NEVER any parking meters
Re: MUST READ: The Bursting of the Shale Gas Bubble
Quote:
Originally Posted by
midnight rambler
Note Ragnar Benson himself weighing in the comments section. One of the do-good libtards even posted something like, "I can't wait until your generation dies off" TRANSLATION: Old farts like you are standing in the way of our collectivist utopia
One comment is a hoot: "Woodsmoke is assault (on my lungs)"
Ragnar is my hero! Guy has to be a Viking with that name! Here's a gem he posted:
RAGNAR BENSON November 9, 2013 at 5:08 pm
I HAVE A CHECKUP TWICE A YEAR AS REQUIRED BY MEDICARE, NO I DON’T HAVE ANY OF YOUR LISTED PROBLEMS. PERHAPS THOSE EMISSIONS CAUSED THE WORN DISC IN MY BACK.
YOU NEED TO LOOK AT OTHER EMISSION SITES FOR YOUR CRUSADE, PERHAPS IN THE OLD EAST BLOCK OR ARGENTINA, MAYBE PERU. I WORKED ON BOILER EMISSIONS FOR REILY STOKER NOW BABCOX AND WILCOX, FOCUSING ON NOZZLE DESIGN AND ELECTROSTATIC PRECIPITATORS CUSTOMIZED FOR A SPECIFIC COAL FIELD OF BITUMINOUS, SUB BITUMINOUS OR LIGNITE WITH A HYDROCARB/WATER CARRIER FOR INJECTION ON TO A FLUIDIZED BED. THE NET PARTICULATE DOWN TO SUBMICRON EMISSIONS WERE ZERO, STEAM ONLY.
THE CRAP YOU SHOULD WORRY ABOUT DOES NOT COME FROM A FEW WOOD STOVES.
OF COURSE TALKING TO YOU LIKE ANY OTHER DO GOOD LIBBER IS A WASTE OF TIME. OF COURSE YOU ALSO PROMOTE THE GLOBAL WARMING CRAP TOO. YES CONTROL MY LIFE BECAUSE YOU ARE SMARTER AND KNOIW WHAT IS BEST FOR ME, JUST LIKE THE THING IN THE WHITEHOUSE
And this:
RAGNAR BENSON November 9, 2013 at 5:50 pm
MATTY T, YOU AND YOUR LIBTARDS NEED TO BE BANNED. YOU ARE THE IGNORANT FOLLOWER OF JUNK SCIENCE. I MORE THAN MOST ARE AWARE OF WHAT IS FLOATING AROUND IN THE AIR.
YOU ARE A NARROW MINDED ASS GEEK WHO SITS AND PLAYS WITH STATS AND COMPUTER CHARTS. I WORKED IT THE FIELD. OBVIOUSLY YOU HAD NO CLUE DUE TO THE FACT THERE WAS NO REPLY ON THE COMPANIES MENTIONED. YOU ARE NOTHING BUT A LIBERAL TROLL, TROLL THIS A$$HOLE.
Re: MUST READ: The Bursting of the Shale Gas Bubble
Excellent comment here as well:
smith October 14, 2013 at 7:45 am
I just relined an old very small woodstove with fire bricks so that it will FUNCTION like a rocket stove. Hey – they give off very little smoke and are very efficient and I live where its very cold – Average temps and snowfall same as Anchorage- in New York!
It’s not about the smoke – but greater efficiency -I can’t wait til I test it soon.
It’s not just about China. WOOD IS THE ONLY FUEL THEY CAN’T TAX – and that bothers them.
The Amish here are very upset and lots moved to other states when the DEC tried this a few years back. What are they supposed to do???
Re: MUST READ: The Bursting of the Shale Gas Bubble
Quote:
Originally Posted by
mamboni
Huh? Fire burning stoves?
Yes. In Southern California no wood burning below 3000 feet in houses. Could be just new construction but they're trying to outlaw bonfires on the beach in some counties.
Re: MUST READ: The Bursting of the Shale Gas Bubble
Quote:
Originally Posted by
milehi
Yes. In Southern California no wood burning below 3000 feet in houses. Could be just new construction but they're trying to outlaw bonfires on the beach in some counties.
Sad. Not a world I want to inhabit.
Re: MUST READ: The Bursting of the Shale Gas Bubble
dont fuck with my wood heating stove it here to stay . this could make alot of country boys draw the line
Re: MUST READ: The Bursting of the Shale Gas Bubble
Quote:
Originally Posted by
mick silver
dont fuck with my wood heating stove it here to stay . this could make alot of country boys draw the line
I would think the ammo situation would 'make a lot of country boys draw the line'. I'm thinking the country boys keep allowing the competition to move the line.
Re: MUST READ: The Bursting of the Shale Gas Bubble
If we had a government in Washington that actually had any intelligence and cared about the American people, it would incentivize people to convert over to clean-burning wood stoves from oil, gas and dirty-burning wood stoves. The most effcient solar collector ever created is the tree. We have millions of acres that could be used to grow firewood. Here you would have a highly efficient renewable energy source that would create jobs, reduce dependency on foreign oil, reduce the trade deficit and would greatly improve the environment through better soil management and improved air quality. Trees remove particulate pollution from the air better than anything man created. And folk would be incentivized to remove and burn felled trees from the millions of acres of forest, trees now rotting and spewing out carbon dioxide. That this policy isn't adopted tells the thinking man that in fact the CO2 global warming meme is just a government scam to raise taxes and deindustrialize the US. Years from now, when we are well past peak oil and struggling to survive on declining petrochemicals, folk will marvel at how we insanely burned precious oil and gas for heat, all while nature surrounded us with an abundance of an inexpensive, inexhaustable and renewable source of heat: wood.
