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Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Cassandra!
Written by Andrew Hoffman
on November 19 2013
In college, I majored in Finance, and minored in economics; and several years later, achieved the Chartered Financial Analyst designation, or CFA. In other words, I’m one of the handfuls of Americans whose career path actually followed his university studies. And thanks to the pure luck of my grandfather being a pharmacist at Walgreen’s – and subsequently, gifting me $1,000 of stock upon my birth in 1970 – I wasn’t forced to take out student loans. Again, putting me at the end of the bell curve; as just this month, Federal student loans – amidst the lowest Labor Participation rate in 35 years – surpassed $1 trillion, whilst default rates surged to an all-time high. Of course, if the Fed hadn’t been printing money with reckless abandon throughout this time – remember, the gold standard was abandoned in 1971 – such loans wouldn’t be necessary. To wit, when I attended SUNY Albany in 1988-92, a year’s tuition was $7,000; as opposed to today’s $20,000 or $28,000 for non-NY residents.
Despite my finance background, my favorite subject was Greek Mythology. To countless generations of Greeks, Homer’s Iliad and Odyssey resembled bibles with stories as colorful – and philosophical – as any ever written. Over the years, I have referred to Homeric characters numerous times to describe the world’s ills; but none more so than Cassandra. The Princess of Troy, Cassandra was said to be so beautiful, she bedeviled the mighty sun god, Apollo. Consequently, he granted her ability to prophesize the future; but altered this “gift” when she spurned his amorous advances – causing no one to believe her prophecies.
When I worked on Wall Street – particularly, my seven years as a sell-side oilfield service analyst at Salomon Smith Barney – I had a devoted audience of mainstream analysts, portfolio managers, and at times, “gurus.” In forecasting higher oil prices – which in 1999-2005, averaged $30/bbl. – they assumed I was anticipating increased economic activity, which is “good.” The fact that my predictions were based nearly entirely on constricting supply and monetary inflation was largely ignored. But then again, no one cared – as higher oil prices were considered a sign of economic strength – which again, is “good.” Better yet, my forecasts were supported by a Cartel – i.e., OPEC – whose purpose was to overtly support oil prices.
However, when I left Wall Street in 2005 – in large part, disgusted by the conflicts of interest I was constantly exposed to; I decided to become a “whistleblower” of sorts, through the free missives I published about the real state of the economy and financial markets. I had already been fully invested in Precious Metals for three years; and thus, was fully aware of the covert Cartel working to suppress prices; which is probably why my initial articles were published on the GATA website.
Anyhow, it was at that point that I realized my writings – no matter how thoughtful or prescient – were now considered “bad”; as essentially, I was publicly forecasting weak economic activity, falling financial markets, and a decline in the “almighty dollar.” Even after countless correct forecasts – such as the tech and housing bubbles – much less, the PM bull market – I was largely ignored; and to this day, the worse such issues become, the greater the anathema my commentary. And the same goes for all the “good, smart people” in our “shadow world”; including countless readers of the Miles Franklin Blog and Newsletter. In other words, we have been deemed Cassandras by TPTB; and to a large extent, the very “proletarians” suffering under their auspices. Remember, in a world where very few have the means to protect themselves; the majority will always opt to accept propaganda offering hope. And if anyone harbors doubts that the vast majority require hope, I advise you to watch thissobering video about America’s widening wealth inequality.
In eleven-plus years of being fully invested in the sector – and writing of it on nearly a daily basis; one thing I have learned loud and clear is of the herd mentality that guides it. In other words, when prices are rising, the “to the moon” crowd grows exponentially; while when prices are falling, gold’s enemies come out of the woodwork – in droves. In fact, Precious Metals are so universally feared – and propagandized – that their detractors are typically multiples of those supporting them, even in the best of times. This makes what we are dealing with this year so much more difficult; as aside from the typical fiat currency pied pipers, many of gold’s supposed “friends” are jumping on the bandwagon as well. During such times, the value of physical metal in one’s own possession is best understood, as “Paper PM Investments” evaporate into the ether. Not that the latter may not one day “outperform”; but in the meantime, knowing my ounces aren’t going anywhere enables me to sleep the “sleep of the just.”
Under such circumstances, we are witnessing ignorance of economic and financial market fundamentals at levels never before seen; not to mention, a bull market in apathy unlike any in recorded history. To wit, the market control exhibited by overt manipulations like QE, and covert “operatives” like the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets, the Exchange Stabilization Fund, and the gold Cartel has been so powerful, it is temporarily altering perception of reality – such as that it’s normal for the Dow to rise every day at 10:15 AM EST, per what I deemed the “dead ringer” algorithm nearly two years ago. In fact, Zero Hedge today deemed this year’s extreme market dislocations the “Death of Surprise”; as no matter what news emerges, said “manipulation operatives” support bonds and stocks, whilst suppressing “unfavorable” assets like gold and silver. And since it’s documented that foreigners are selling stocks and bonds at rates not seen since the 2008 collapse, it’s doesn’t take rocket science to understand where such buying emanates.
In actuality, it’s simply caused by the “permanent daily market operations” – or POMO – that occur around 10:15 AM nearly every day; i.e., when the Fed injects moneyinto the equity markets. Here’s today’s equity trading for example; as predictedthis morning by Zero Hedge, and eighteen months ago by my article, “Dow Jones Propaganda Average”…
http://blog.milesfranklin.com/wp-con...11-18-2013.png
In such an environment, “news” no longer matters, like today’s unexpected decline in the NAHB Housing Index and drastic downward revision of last month’s reading – reported at 10:00 AM EST, no less. The Fed just buys more bonds, the PPT buys more stocks, the ESF “stabilizes” currencies, and the Cartel naked shorts paper gold and silver. It’s just that simple; and if you disagree, I suggest you read Bill Holter’s description of why such operations are deemed necessary.
Heck, just last week, Janet Yellen opined that “gold is an asset people want to hold when they are very fearful about a potential financial-market catastrophe or economic troubles and tail risks.” Thus, do you think maybe – just maybe – in a world where manipulation of everything from LIBOR to Foreign Exchange to mortgage documentation have become commonplace, that one of the world’s smallest, but most watched markets might not be as well? I mean, was no one watching last week when the Citibank-authored “Swaps Regulatory Improvement Act” passed through the House with nary a debate, exempting TBTF banks from Dodd-Frank regulation of their derivative trading activity? Or for that matter, today’s Federal Reserve proposal to delay the so-called “Volcker Rule” by a full year; thus, enabling banks to continue speculating with client funds?
If you don’t believe in manipulation, than pray tell why Bitcoin – i.e., the ultimate “GOTS” currency – can surge due to ‘massive Chinese buying’; whilst gold plummets under the same conditions? After all, even the most hardened Atlas Shrugged-type would have difficulty explaining how gold prices can fall despite physical demand in the world’s largest gold consuming nations soaring, don’t you think? To wit, just from Hong Kong alone, Chinese imports are on pace to double last year’s record pace; while in India, where import tariffs have been raised 9% this year alone, demand will still reach a record level. And oh yeah, that doesn’t include buying in the thriving black market, or the premiums of up to 22% currently paid above the COMEX-generated “spot price.” Per the chart below, a whopping 82% of global gold production – which as you can see, has been flat for years - is being sucked up by these two markets alone; and who knows how much by countless other nations ravaged by Fed-exported inflation. And yet, we’re told prices are falling because demand is “lower,” and supply “higher.”
http://blog.milesfranklin.com/wp-con...ners-Chart.png
Next consider why worldwide stock prices are rising amidst essentially zero GDP growth, record unemployment, and surging debt. You saw what I wrote yesterday about Spain, for example, which was followed up by today’s news of record bad loans. Does it make sense that not only is the Spanish stock market up 18% this year, but entirely due to multiple expansions? Or that U.S. equity is making (nominal) record highs amidst the abysmaleconomic conditions depicted below? Perhaps it’s the record low Labor Participation rate that has “investors” juiced; as exemplified by this week’s Congressional testimony that long-term joblessness will be chronic – and subsequently, Obama’s decision to push for an extension of unemployment benefits next month. Yes, the economy is “recovering” so strongly, that the 26 weeks of unemployment benefits paid out in 2008 has been expanded to 99 weeks in many states, with a strong likelihood of being increased further.
http://blog.milesfranklin.com/wp-con...Conditions.png
Obviously, what we are seeing is Central bank money printing being channeled principally into financial assets; simultaneously, raising the cost of living – and doing business – worldwide. This is why the disparity between markets and economic reality is widening; such as this depiction of the past 24 hours gold trading – demonstrating a “cap of last resort” Friday afternoon at 12:00 PM EST; a “Sunday Night Sentiment” attack in ultra-thin market conditions, the 117th visit from the 2:15 AM EST suppression algo in the past 129 days, a COMEX-opening waterfall decline with no other market budging, an additional plunge at exactly “Key Attack Time #1”; i.e., 10:00 AM EST, when the global physical market closes; and a “full circle” attack again at 12:00 PM EST today – again, with no other market budging. Just like the Dow’s POMO-inspired surges, I have written of how Paper PM prices are manipulated for years.
http://blog.milesfranklin.com/wp-con...-2013-1131.png
Of course, such manoeuvers have been attempted throughout history; in all cases, unsuccessfully. The fact remains that physical demand continues to rise, whilst physical supply contracts. And if plunging inventories at the COMEX, LBMA, and GLD ETF are any indication, it won’t be long before the Paper PM Ponzi scheme collapses under its own weight. The fact is the aforementioned economic trends cannot – and will not – subside until real money replaces the fiat promises destroying capital at an exponential rate. And thus, the necessity to protect one’s financial assets from the long-term, guaranteed result of hyperinflation; particularly at prices well below the global cost of production!
Even when this occurs, Cassandra’s like us will still be despised by the majority – in most cases, disregarded to the bitter end. Fortunately, a small handful of free thinkers will see through the lies – as in time, it will become more and more difficult to ignore them. At the Miles Franklin Blog, our goal is to speak the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth; and hopefully, you will be one of the lucky few that “get it.”
http://blog.milesfranklin.com/cassandra
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Quote:
Originally Posted by
mamboni
Cassandra!
Written by Andrew Hoffman
on November 19 2013
Even when this occurs, Cassandra’s like us will still be despised by the majority – in most cases, disregarded to the bitter end. Fortunately, a small handful of free thinkers will see through the lies – as in time, it will become more and more difficult to ignore them. At the
Miles Franklin Blog, our goal is to speak the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth; and hopefully,
you will be one of the lucky few that “get it.”
http://blog.milesfranklin.com/cassandra
Good article, I will comment just on the last part highlighted.
Maxed out my accounts in the summer, few dollars accumulated since then were
just spent today, most of my positions are futures calls, all close to the money and
many further out even to 2015 because I don't like what I see, reminds me of 2008 where
we had to dump positions early because SI was going sideways at 11 12, they don't
want people making money off the lows early. These hits recently sub 1350 are
meant for those that can see and trade, same with the two periods in a row
where we should of had peak seasonals we had lower lows instead, big anomaly.
You can largely buy the same positions today with very little variation relatively speaking
from summer lows. Only SLV APR 2014 shows some noticeable decay, I only bought those to max out my account to almost zero. Today I bought few K July2014C SLV, 22 strike for roughly buck, extra 4 weeks in July from buying comex call.
People had whole month in low 1900's to take positions. I have never been invested the
way I am today since 2008. Who remembers my CRIMEX thread ? My trades were posted real time, strategies, started with puts buying apr/may2008 , aiming for a bottom with full GC correction, same rules apply, we have never had a full GC correction since then,
no stars lining up to go long with confidence, cot , seasonals, full GC correction.
This will be my fourth run going north.
GC Full Correction , Get Aboard SI Train.
31st July 2013, 04:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by
MAGNES
I hope everyone is in on the SI Call Train, I'm all in, close the money way out whole account.
We may get to more bottoms Aug, maybe even Oct, but this is why we stay close to the
money and way out, SI July2014C, or SLV APR14C, 21 dollar strikes for a buck, even without
a futures account you can do it.
ALL IN ON THE SI TRAIN !
Remember, your own DD , multiply your FRNS, take the multiple,
there is no " to the moon " for trading this, that would be luck.
Lots happens in accounts, over the years, and even this round.
Major multiples already presented themselves, I would be all
out at SI 26 labor day Fri, but they made sure I wasn't , LOL ,
lots pisses me off over the years. This period in history I am
not going to enjoy, mid Nov and chart looks like shit like 2008,
SI is wound tight though. Risk is GC stays down for the count.
or you can't handle seeing a small position cut a bit. I will be all
out first 2 weeks popping in Dec, SI 25/26.
http://i43.tinypic.com/29fticn.jpg
http://i39.tinypic.com/2iqy5io.png
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Gold 2.0 is the bribe,
that's to work on the "decentralized" population so they can pick up Mcmansions on the cheap, and turned into redcoats.
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Horn
Gold 2.0 is the bribe,
that's to work on the "decentralized" population so they can pick up Mcmansions on the cheap, and turned into redcoats.
Jeez, you're starting to sound like uberkitty. This makes no sense whatsoever. LOL
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Quote:
Originally Posted by
mamboni
Jeez, you're starting to sound like uberkitty. This makes no sense whatsoever. LOL
Bitcoin is the bribe that you were supposed to take in place of your gold becoming valuable, mamboni..
What kitty wants, kitty gets. :)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fuDDqU6n4o
I figure if we all start posting like him, he won't know what to do.
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Horn
Bitcoin is the bribe that you were supposed to take in place of your gold becoming valuable, mamboni..
What kitty wants, kitty gets. :)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fuDDqU6n4o
I figure if we all start posting like him, he won't know what to do.
OK, I got ya bro! What we had here was a failure to communicate Luke! LOL
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Quote:
If you don’t believe in manipulation, than pray tell why Bitcoin – i.e., the ultimate “GOTS” currency – can surge due to ‘massive Chinese buying’; whilst gold plummets under the same conditions? After all, even the most hardened Atlas Shrugged-type would have difficulty explaining how gold prices can fall despite physical demand in the world’s largest gold consuming nations soaring, don’t you think?
Anyone care to tell us what the real world value of Gold and Silver are?
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Horn
Anyone care to tell us what the real world value of Gold and Silver are?
I don't know. No one knows. No one knows the value of anything these days. All the markets are completely manipulated, distorted and screwed up. Consider the ultimate absurdity, that a central bank can literlaly create $1 trillion ($1,000,000,000,000!!!!) without lifting a shovel, hammering a nail, creating a report, or providing any useful good or service. This is madness. But gold and silver have been money for 5000 years. Gold and silver are honorable because they bring to bear all the attributes of a true asset born of honest toil, talent and expertise: private propertry rights, energy and labor inputs, refining and fabrication, distribution and sale. As of today, we don't know the values of gold and silver. But when this fake, phoney, false paradigm we are suffering under collapses under the mountain of empty promises and lies, and after the dust settles, we will rediscover gold and silver. And honest men will never tolerate the criminality and fraud of the funny money hucksters again......until the next time.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6v2q7k0ub4I&feature=player_embedded
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/w...ney-Supply.png
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Horn
Anyone care to tell us what the real world value of Gold and Silver are?
The cost of exploration/mining, refining, assaying, minting, handeling and sales. + premium for demand.
What ever that is?
Bitcoin - The cost of kids playing on a computer, speculation, demand
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Horn
Anyone care to tell us what the real world value of Gold and Silver are?
Good question!
The value of anything is related to how people perceive it and availability. Some items have and held value over the eons. Others have or had value in a flash in the pan, cultural fad sort of way.
Think beanie babies as an example, of cultural madness and value.
Gold & Silver has value directly proportional to peoples desire to own/hold it and its availability at the time of sale.
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
I'm finding that if you price anything in dollars you have to add 13% just for security and insulation purposes.
Quote:
Bitcoin - The cost of kids playing on a computer, speculation, demand
Not so fast EE_ people keep telling me that it takes a tremendous amount of electricity to mine those Bitcoins...
http://qzprod.files.wordpress.com/20...ng?w=640&h=388
If it wasn't for their centralized and privatized pools, there would be no more bitcoins.
Is it a race to zero? I can't tell.
Quote:
| Difficulty |
609,482,680.00 |
| Mining Factor 100 |
0.05 USD/24h@100MHash/s as in these charts |
| Average generation time for a block (solo) |
1 year, 240 days (can vary greatly depending on your luck) |
| Hardware break even |
120 days |
| Net profit first time frame |
-554.51 USD |
| Coins per 24h at these conditions |
0.0413 BTC |
| Power cost per 24h |
0.36 USD |
| Revenue per day |
23.02 USD |
| Less power costs |
22.66 USD |
| System efficiency |
500.00 MH/s/W |
| Mining Factor 100 at the end of the time frame |
0.04 USD/24h@100MHash/s |
| Average Mining Factor 100 |
0.04 USD/24h@100MHash/s |
| Power cost per time frame |
32.87 USD |
| Revenue per time frame |
1977.36 USD |
| Less power costs |
1944.49 USD |
The revenues seem to have gone up just recently...
https://blockchain.info/charts/miners-revenue
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
It can't be nearly as bad as mining Silver.
If I were mining just Silver I'd probably want a landslide to come and cave my mine.
Collect the Silverstein insurance payout.
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Horn
Anyone care to tell us what the real world value of Gold and Silver are?
A dozen female goats for an oz of gold, and 2-3 laying hens for an oz of silver. But you have to haggle...
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Neuro
A dozen female goats for an oz of gold, and 2-3 laying hens for an oz of silver. But you have to haggle...
Gold guys would never have it that way,
they'd also want the 3 laying hens in exchange to "top off" the trade. :)
Is close I think though.
3 laying hens for an oz of silver, 2 and you're just being jewish....
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Horn
Gold guys would never have it that way,
they'd also want the 3 laying hens in exchange to "top off" the trade. :)
Is close I think though.
3 laying hens for an oz of silver, 2 and you're just being jewish....
Give the goat herder an oz of silver and he'll go and buy you the hens, but don't expect any change back on the gold... :)
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Just keep it all in goats, you're trying to manipulate the market with your hen trade inclusion.
15 goats for an oz. of Gold.
2 for an oz. of Silver.
then I will give you 1 goat for 5 hens.
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Horn
Just keep it all in goats, you're trying to manipulate the market with your hen trade inclusion.
15 goats for an oz. of Gold.
2 for an oz. of Silver.
then I will give you 1 goat for 5 hens.
One would have to watch out, with the hens all it would take would be access to a rooster and then you would have a case of inflation of your assets with their value dropping in proportion to the rising population of cluckers.
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Only on GSUS could a thread about a Hoffman article on gold and silver turn into a trading house for goats and chickens. Someone please pass me the Haldol.
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Quote:
Originally Posted by
mamboni
Only on GSUS could a thread about a Hoffman article on gold and silver turn into a trading house for goats and chickens. Someone please pass me the Haldol.
That'll be 25mg for 2-3 eggs.
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Horn
That'll be 25mg for 2-3 eggs.
Deal. My chickens produce 1 dozen big fat jumbo brown eggs every day - delicious!
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Quote:
Originally Posted by
mamboni
Chart's as queer as a $200 dollar bill.
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Quote:
Originally Posted by
mamboni
Deal. My chickens produce 1 dozen big fat jumbo brown eggs every day - delicious!
I wasn't aware you had chickens, make it a half dozen then.
We're having omelets for brunch. :)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nhhn6NditA8
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Horn
Chart's as queer as a $200 dollar bill.
Yeah, kinda looks like a silhouette of a guy in a lazy boy recliner with too much viagra on board.
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Humm?
Me thinks one of the forums mystery's is being revealed!
Horn?
Attachment 5695
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Horn
Sure. I give half of them away to my neighbors and coworkers anyway.
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Dogman
Humm?
Me thinks one of the forums mystery's is being relieved!
Horn?
Attachment 5695
Most of the time I ignore you gold guys,
but since you're the only ones left on board, I'm forced to charge you double for my silver equations.
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Horn
Just keep it all in goats, you're trying to manipulate the market with your hen trade inclusion.
15 goats for an oz. of Gold.
2 for an oz. of Silver.
then I will give you 1 goat for 5 hens.
Ridiculous! You will never trade 15 goats for an ounce of gold, unless someone sells you snipped geriatric male goats doped on arsenik. You goat hater!
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Neuro
Ridiculous! You will never trade 15 goats for an ounce of gold,
You must think I'm some sort of Roy Munson pushover type?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7ppc-08VG4
Christ, its only 3 more goats than you originally asked for!
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Horn
Come back when you fully appreciate the tight margins of the goat-gold trade! You sir are not ready yet!
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Escalona al locos Bologna
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
You will be able to get those goats for a silver dime apiece..
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Re: Cassandra! Andrew Hoffman
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Terry853
You will be able to get those goats for a silver dime apiece..
Just a frickin' goat? One? I thought I'd be able to buy a house or car.
