Has anyone published saying the US dollar WILL NOT collapse?

I've read a couple books that predict the collapse of the dollar within a couple years, if not months. And I've seen a number of articles with the same theme. But I haven't noticed a single article or book that declares these are just alarmists and that the economy will continue or improve.

Has anyone read anything recently that says the US dollar will not collapse within the next couple years?

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Let me just add an example of what I'm talking about from MarketWatch:

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So prudent investors please listen, very, very closely: It doesn’t matter whether the markets crash or merely suffer a major correction, GMO is warning us the S&P 500 has a high probability of falling to “negative real returns over one-year, three-year, and seven-year periods.” And that sure sounds like another way of saying a major crash is dead ahead.

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Yes. Many of my posts. I think the idea of a US Dollar collapse within the next couple of years is ridiculous. I know I'm in the minority here on this one. But I'm willing to debate all takers. And the debate starts with a definition of "collapse".

I meant published articles and books, presumably by people who are good enough at it that they make a living reading the financial markets' tea leaves.

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Originally Posted by Sparky

And the debate starts with a definition of "collapse".

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Ah, very good. I was kind of vague.

For the purposes of this question, I mean at least a panicked stock market sell-off worse than 2008, maybe worse than 1929, not just a correction.

In a larger context "collapse" means we have printed or created so much currency and have so much debt compared to revenue that obligated expenses (entitlements plus interest on the debt) surpass our ability to print more money to cover it. That is, printing new money shrinks the dollar faster than the sum increases. It would really be a loss of confidence in the dollar that would make everyone run to the bank to withdraw their money. Though in today's world, I guess everyone would try to log in and shift their cash somewhere. I don't know where.

The most common trip point I've heard of is the world's rejection of the dollar as its reserve currency. China is buying up as much gold it can possibly lay hands on so it can put the yuan on the gold standard. Any gold-backed currency would seem a lot more stable than the ever-shrinking dollar.

But what I want to know is, does any prognosticating author have a valid reason to say it's not going to happen.

You don't want to be listening to people who make money reading financial tea leaves. They make money by telling you one thing, and then putting their money in the other direction.

Your premise is all messed up. Do you realize that during the 2008 market sell-off, the US Dollar soared? Your OP talks about a dollar crash, but then you talk about a stock market crash. Those two things usually work in the opposite direction. The reason that a dollar won't crash any time soon is for exactly that reason. At the slightest indication of fear, the world rushes to the dollar. Some day it will be exposed for what it is, but not until every other currency collapses first. So it won't be happening within the next two years.

Then, you don't really define a dollar collapse very well, which is very common in this forum. Loss of purchasing power is not a collapse. It's lost 95% of its buying power over a century, and yet it remains the "go to" currency for the rest of the world. The word "collapse" implies swift and complete disintegration. So a dollar collapse would have to mean something like at least one of these occurrences:

1) Rapid loss of purchasing power, like 50% in 18 months.
2) Sharp drop in the US Dollar index, well below it's low of 72. (It's currently around 80). I'd need to see something below 50 to call it a collapse.
3) Introduction of a replacement currency.
4) Record high interest rates (above 20%) required to defend its failing integrity.

I don't see how any of these could happen within two years. People here recognize the danger of fiat currency, but they don't seem to have a good understanding of the global puzzle pieces that need to come together in order for the USD to collapse. We're going to see a lot of global financial crises long before the dollar collapse. For one thing, both the Euro and Yen have to collapse first. Talk to me after one of those goes down in flames (per the above criteria), and then maybe we'll be within two years of a USD collapse.

I recently took a trip to Peru and can state emphatically that FRN's are held in high regard over whatever is the local currency (Soles). I assume it is that way all around the world and our role playing as the worlds reserve currency is far from over.

Still the question is can a group of governments put together trading partnerships that exclude the FRN? Our military is strapped as far as taking on all the evil perceived by our bankers in the world. I would guess that the "dollars" demise will be gradual, most of those foreign governments own a ton of "dollars" and at the same time will try to use their own currencies for trade sidestepping the dollar.

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Originally Posted by Bigjon

I recently took a trip to Peru and can state emphatically that FRN's are held in high regard over whatever is the local currency (Soles). I assume it is that way all around the world and our role playing as the worlds reserve currency is far from over.

Still the question is can a group of governments put together trading partnerships that exclude the FRN? Our military is strapped as far as taking on all the evil perceived by our bankers in the world. I would guess that the "dollars" demise will be gradual, most of those foreign governments own a ton of "dollars" and at the same time will try to use their own currencies for trade sidestepping the dollar.

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Dam good questions,

Think frn's will hold even if our gov baffles the world, because the us is considered stable compared its resources and history vs any other country in the world.

In time it probably will change, but china has major problems, they maybe over reached. South America (Brazil is cracking at the seams) Russia, other than their oil, which is the only thing keeping them healthy, lots off hot air, as on this forum.

Suspect it will be a a case of keeping on keeping on with the same players.

The big one which has not played out is what is Russia going to do concerning the Ukraine, will it be a worldwide let it happen, as in the mid 20th century which led to ww2. Who in the hell knows, tho stupidity does have a record to repeat itself.

Not all cards are on the table.

But as far as the dollar is concerned, it is more stable than any other in the world, so short term, it is probably safe. There is nothing that can be considered safe to replace it.

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Originally Posted by Sparky

You don't want to be listening to people who make money reading financial tea leaves. They make money by telling you one thing, and then putting their money in the other direction.

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Yeah, I know. Everyone's liar but you. But that's what everyone says. I'm trying to listen to all sides and piece together the truth. But right now I'm getting a resounding SHTF-soon signal and I'm looking for a some balance.

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Originally Posted by Sparky

[The dollar has] lost 95% of its buying power over a century, and yet it remains the "go to" currency for the rest of the world.

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That's been true since Bretton Woods, but apparently many countries HATE it, and want to do something about it. And China is making such a big shift in gold across the surface of the earth that the earth might shift on its axis. Why would China do that? Because they've been receiving payment for goods in depreciating dollars for decades to their great disadvantage and to our great advantage. And we label them "currency manipulators".

One of the things I've recently read is that China has signed agreements with 20 countries to do trade in its yuan instead of dollars, including Saudi Arabia where they buy oil. That's big.

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Originally Posted by Sparky

The word "collapse" implies swift and complete disintegration.

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Well, not complete. The citizens of Weimar could still buy things for a wheelbarrow full of currency. And they had lots of it.

But yes, some are predicting that the dollar will lose its reserve currency status and suddenly we'll have to buy yuan or some other currency to buy our oil and to trade with. But buying another currency with freshly printed dollars will be more difficult and expensive when other countries don't need them and are already irritated by having to suffer with them for so long.

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Originally Posted by Sparky

4) Record high interest rates (above 20%) required to defend its failing integrity.

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Another thing I've only recently learned is that the reason inflation is reported as being low is because they've taken food and fuel out of the equation. So apparently the two leading contributors to inflation are ignored when calculating it. Some have said current inflation would be perhaps 10% if it was calculated like it was in decades gone by.

I don't know, Sparky, I've been plodding along paying only a little bit of attention for most of my life but the fact that we're printing trillions of dollars with quantitative easing started to seem like such an incredibly stupid thing to do that I've started to pay attention and read about it. And oh good grief!

I hope you're right.

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Originally Posted by Bigjon

I recently took a trip to Peru and can state emphatically that FRN's are held in high regard over whatever is the local currency (Soles). I assume it is that way all around the world and our role playing as the worlds reserve currency is far from over.

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That was a point one prognosticator made. He said that for years when he traveled overseas, he didn't even bother converting currency since everyone accepted dollars. But recently that's not been the case. So you've seen the same thing. (I haven't flown in about a decade and don't intend to until the Fourth Amendment is restored.)

The collapse of the dollar will commence when a single event occurs.

That event is when you stop accepting them and stop passing them off to others as payment for debt.

Still the overwhelming opinion of both sides is to park your dollar in some sort of tangible assets when gaining them.

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Originally Posted by KenJackson

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I hope you're right.

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It's not like I'm painting a rosy scenario Ken! All of your concerns are warranted. Trouble lies ahead because of the many things you mentioned. And we should be taking precautionary steps.

But a dollar collapse is low on the list of immediate concerns. There's a better chance that your money will get locked up, or steadily lose its buying power (not collapse), or that the availability and distribution of food and tangible items will be disrupted, or that the gravy train for those on the dole can't be met and it will cause social unrest that could turn violent. The dollar will likely be in relatively short supply and strong demand as these things begin to take place. Only when the gov't accelerates the dollar creation program to meet these needs will it start to become at risk.

People think the dollar printing is high now, but it's really only at a few percent annual rate compared to the total money supply. Although long term harmful, they are able to mask this in the short term. When the handouts begin to overwhelm the system, then you'll see some serious printing, and some accelerated dollar damage (potential collapse) rather than the continuous erosion we see now. But this is not within a couple of years. More likely it's 5-15 years down the road. Other trouble will surface before that.

Haven't seen much talk of a dollar collapse lately as the USD broke the 100 mark yesterday, up 28% in just 9 months. Technically, it's probably due for some type of a retreat because this type of move in a major currency is astounding. The .618 Fib level is at around 101 and it's almost reached par with the Euro, so it may be reaching an interim top soon. It's probably ready for a period of retreat. But remember, it can't really be in trouble until the Euro and the Yen go under. Only then does the clock start ticking on the Dollar.

The dollar collapse is ongoing. It's a 100+ year collapse, but the curve has accelerated severely in recent years, signalling the approach of terminus. If you are looking for signals there are plenty. History will likely mark the start of the "final collapse" in 2008, so where does that leave us?

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Originally Posted by Sparky

Haven't seen much talk of a dollar collapse lately ...

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I have. But it's a little different now. Last year several people predicted it would collapse by the end of 2014. Now they're all a little more cautious.

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Originally Posted by Sparky

But remember, it can't really be in trouble until the Euro and the Yen go under. Only then does the clock start ticking on the Dollar.

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Can't? Who says? I've heard or read a number of authors saying the world's financial systems have become to tightly intertwined that when one goes, they'll all go together.

One of Mike Maloney's videos presented a graph that showed the stock markets of Japan, Russia and Brazil used to rise and fall totally independently of each other. But now, as of about 2008, all the world's stock markets rise and fall in lock step. There is one world market. Interesting, but scary.

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Originally Posted by Half Sense

History will likely mark the start of the "final collapse" in 2008, ...

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History will indeed have a lot to say about 2008. But the discussion seems to be about a specific event that causes a fast domino effect (e.g. Greece defaulting on it's debt with the other PIIGS nations looking on admiringly).

I don't buy this "100-year collapse" business. That's not what a collapse is. That's like saying a bridge starts to collapse the day you finish building it, because eventually it is destined to collapse. There is no collapse until you can't use the bridge any more. The dollar will not be considered collapsed until transactions with it become problematic.

I agree that 2008 was significant in the historical sequence of events, and that the world's financial system is intertwined. But it is so large that I think it will take time for the entire sequence to play out. Look how long it has taken just for the European crisis to unfold. Even this first domino with Greece has taken years, and it's still not there. The "world leaders" can see the writing on the wall, so they can plan each domino. The whole system is based on perception, and they have lots of tools for controlling perception.

Greece, Europe, then Japan...I say they play out in 2015-2020. The U.S. and the fate of the dollar play out 2020-2025. This is just the opinion of someone who has been preaching all along that a dollar collapse in 2014 was just a ridiculous thought.

Whats your thoughts on the supposed "international" China yuan being introduced, Sparky.

Do you think they can managed to keep that huge population over there in chains long enough to make it some sort of reality, and the implications.

Or smoke and mirrors?

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Originally Posted by Horn

Whats your thoughts on the supposed "international" China yuan being introduced, Sparky.

Do you think they can managed to keep that huge population over there in chains long enough to make it some sort of reality, and the implications.

Or smoke and mirrors?

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I think this is a significant development in the long sequence of events that are unfolding. The unveiling of this new international transaction system was delayed from last year to later this year. I think it's success/failure will have a large impact on the ultimate path of the dollar over the next decade. If it is embraced quickly, the threat to the dollar is accelerated. As such, there will be highly influential parties interested in creating obstacles to its success.

Even if its initial implementation is not successful, it does set the groundwork for organized challenges to U.S. dollar hegemony. It's a significant event, but is probably consistent with the time frame that I've identified. In the short run, it will force countries to "choose a side". I think we can guess who they are already, but it will put them out there visibly. This is one of the reasons it may face resistance, i.e. countries will have to openly spite the U.S., which is usually not in their best interest.

I think keeping the Chinese population in chains is a non-factor. The real factors exist at the much higher political level. Everyone else is a pawn. The politicians are smart enough to keep the pawns fed and entertained.

Right, a tainted fig leaf.

My estimation is of another fiat Euro, meant to create velocity where there otherwise is none. Then again becoming disposeable rapidly.

When talking "collapse" you must be referring to something's ability to hold weight, or support value.

The dollar has gained value recently against other currencies and commodities have become less expensive in that deal. The global economy has been thrown off balance. America was the marketplace of the world and America was a strong- the strongest manufacturing place as well. You cannot have a marketplace unless the people have money to spend. And you cannot have honest money if you are not producing value for others.

China soaked up the manufacturing base, which also soaked up the engineering and support markets. This depleted Amerika of millions of jobs... productive jobs. Instead we now have government jobs, low-paying menial service jobs and welfare. This does not make a strong consumer base. The purchasing of cheap crap from China will slow down more and eventually Amerika will be marginalized out of the equation if the Chinese market can gain enough purchasing power to support its production. Methinks not.

We are seeing deflation. There are less dollars on the street to buy the still-abundant supply of goods. The wages do not support further expenditures. That does not stop government from spending further into debt and legislating more blood-sucking parasites onto the economic machine. Money velocity drops. This deflates the money supply. Borrowing drops. This is the lack of new money production. Debt default is direct money destruction.

The debt money system requires payback plus interest, which has deflation built into the design. Its life cycle pulls more money from the marketplace than what was created. To combat this, more money must be borrowed into existence with a growing economy than is destroyed by debt payment and debt default. Fail at this and the money system- not the dollar- collapses. The dollar will follow as a component of the money system since its value is based on confidence in the money system.

There is no fair way to inflate the money supply when the sytem is broken, and it is broken by design. Government printing- or borrowing on behalf of those who cannot borrow, and then putting that debt onto the unwilling taxpayers is a sure way to destroy the money system. It buys some time but its result is like tasty poison water to a thirsty crowd. Debt money is poison water to a consuming body. When the body can take in no more water and is still dying, more water is not the answer.

We all consume more than we produce. The supply of solar energy grows food and provides energy for our physical needs. If the sun stopped shining, we would soon die because our energy source was cut off. The money system requires an energy source to survive. As good old Hypertiger noted, when we can no longer supply what the sytem needs, the system dies. And since the system is so intricately tied into the survival of many people, they will die. Imagine having a son that was emitting energy on and off sporadically. It would be unbalanced and impact plant growth. We have an unbalanced economy that cannot sustain economic growth.

How long will it last? As long as the people continue to allow the parasite to make their decisions.

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Originally Posted by KenJackson

I've read a couple books that predict the collapse of the dollar within a couple years, if not months. And I've seen a number of articles with the same theme. But I haven't noticed a single article or book that declares these are just alarmists and that the economy will continue or improve.

Has anyone read anything recently that says the US dollar will not collapse within the next couple years?

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Let me just add an example of what I'm talking about from MarketWatch:

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andy gause has faded it. i agree with him. rickards and the like are selling books/subs pushing fear and ignorance

deflation is a f-ing joke without specie money. as is any mention of biflation. there is ALWAYS biflation. but more price rises than price reductions

the one world currency is here, been here...and not going anywhere soon. it operates under various names -- frn, euro, yuan, yen, peso, pound, etc

I have not read or watched or listened to anyone who said the "dollar will not collapse." However, it always gets into words and their meanings. I listen to Greg Hunter channel on YouTube and he always tries to ask the guest is there going to be a dollar collapse and when will it happen. Those are the psychologically satisfying kinds of questions and info that hook his subcribers and listeners. More often than not lately, his guests have not used the word "collapse" but have used the word "reset." They say there definitely will be a "reset." I get the idea that a reset is something that happens instead of a "collapse" and that it is something different than a "collapse."

I deduce that a "reset" has something to do with just wiping all the derivatives debt off the books somehow, sort of like declaring a year of Jubilee, and starting over again, which is not technically declaring a "default" on debt - now i'm talking U.S. national banking debt like a country defaults on its bond debts. People will still have their 401Ks and such but the value attached to dollars/interest connected with those accounts will be "changed" or "reset."

I think a total banking default and default of U.S. bonds held by other countries would be more what I would describe as a "collapse."

I know the banksters have bad stuff in store for us but somehow think they will find a tricky way to avoid this total chaotic "collapse" scenario because that will result in violence and chaos on a grand scale in the streets. Don't think the evil banksters want that right now.

As far as getting us little people ready for a "reset", there are many minor "crisis" scenarios they can engineer to happen to us that will make us ready, and make us understand and accept a reset.

That is my understanding.

andy gause has a weekly radio show at oneradionetwork

sharp guy, written a couple of books, knows monetary system backward and forward, been fading frn collapse all along

i agree

frn flies many flags -- dollar, euro, yen, yuan, peso, etc

it is the one world currency that so many are waiting for. is here, been here, not leaving anytime soon

this same fact destroys more ignorance surrounding saddam selling oil for euro got him killed meme

There will be no re-set, because re-sets are noticeable and unnecessary. That's what inflation is for. Simply erode the currency by 1-5% per year forever. When the going gets tough, erode it by 5-15% for a few years, and explain it as temporary, like the 1970's.

The U.S. has about as much debt as the entire money supply. So the entire debt could be wiped out with 50% inflation for one year. But that won't happen. It will be 5% inflation over 10 years.

For those who say that our unfunded obligations are 5x that amount, then fine. That's the 75-year outlook. That can be handled with 3.5% annual inflation over a 75-year period. More some years, less other years. This is why you have precious metals.

Other countries are in such worse shape than the U.S. Wake me up when the Euro and Yen collapse.

Sparky is always the Willy Wonka to my Veruca Salts.

75 years he arbitrarily lobes out there like an everlasting gobstopper... lol!

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Originally Posted by Dachsie

I get the idea that a reset is something that happens instead of a "collapse" and that it is something different than a "collapse."

I deduce that a "reset" has something to do with just wiping all the derivatives debt off the books somehow, sort of like declaring a year of Jubilee, and starting over again, ...

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Originally Posted by Sparky

There will be no re-set, because re-sets are noticeable and unnecessary. That's what inflation is for. Simply erode the currency by 1-5% per year forever.

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I agree that major creditors will never agree to having their assets wiped clean, so a reset by government decree won't happen.

You sound like you think J.M. Keynes was reasonable. Spend like a drunk and inflate your debt away. No problem.


BTW, kind of in response to my own original question, I am shocked by the attitude of Teeka Tiwari. I think he has a great deal of wisdom and insight into the markets, but he predicts that the next decade or so will be a bull market. He's worked out something he calls "The New Golden Ratio" having to do with a ratio of age groups. Looking backwards in history it seems to be a perfect indicator of the market. I'm impressed by it.

But OTOH, all the "nails in the coffin" of the dollar which Mike Maloney lines up in his bonus presentation at Hidden Secrets of Money make me fear Teeka's boat is going to be swamped by the backwash when the economy's engine sputters.

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Originally Posted by Horn

Sparky is always the Willy Wonka to my Veruca Salts.

75 years he arbitrarily lobes out there like an everlasting gobstopper... lol!

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75 years is how far out the Congressional Budget Office runs their economic forecast model, which is how we know how many "unfunded" liabilities we have. It wasn't arbitrary at all.

bet on inflation

fade collapse

fade deflation

no reset needed, and more importantly, not WANTED (by the pigmen). the thing is working beautifully for them. they added the iraq dinar to their stable not long ago......and iran seems like it is set to become the latest franchise....if syria doesnt beat them to it. cuba is a darkhorse...

take all 3 in a trifecta box and cash a nice ticket

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Originally Posted by KenJackson

I agree that major creditors will never agree to having their assets wiped clean, so a reset by government decree won't happen.

You sound like you think J.M. Keynes was reasonable. Spend like a drunk and inflate your debt away. No problem.

...

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Sadly, I'm so misunderstood. :-(

Nowhere do I say it isn't a problem. It's perpetual de-basement of our currency, inexorably eroding our purchasing power. I'm just saying it won't happen all at once in a re-set or collapse. Those dramatic scenarios are much more at risk in Europe and Japan.

We've operated like this for a hundred years. I will admit that the plans underway to create a Chinese currency bank throw a wildcard into the dollar's future. But still, I don't see collapse. Certainly not until after the Euro and Japan collapse. If/when that happens, then we can start talking about a dollar re-set or collapse.

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Originally Posted by cheka.

bet on inflation

fade collapse

fade deflation

no reset needed, and more importantly, not WANTED (by the pigmen). the thing is working beautifully for them. they added the iraq dinar to their stable not long ago......and iran seems like it is set to become the latest franchise

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Exactly right. The people who run things don't want a collapse. They have the perfect arrangement now. They can rob you slowly. A re-set will only draw unwanted attention.

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Originally Posted by Sparky

Exactly right. The people who run things don't want a collapse. They have the perfect arrangement now. They can rob you slowly. A re-set will only draw unwanted attention.

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they've spent a looong time building the parasitic global ubersuperpower enriching/killing/controlling machine. throw it away and start over? can't see it

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Originally Posted by Sparky

75 years is how far out the Congressional Budget Office runs their economic forecast model, which is how we know how many "unfunded" liabilities we have. It wasn't arbitrary at all.

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Are you suggesting the congressional budget office models are more or less arbitrary than yours?

Or exactly as arbitrary? lol

I have gone through articles and discussions on US dollar, majority of which say that , US dollar will collapse in 2015. Also, central banks have started to raise their gold reserves, which might be the sign of US dollar collapse.

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Originally Posted by ComputerYe

I have gone through articles and discussions on US dollar, majority of which say that , US dollar will collapse in 2015. Also, central banks have started to raise their gold reserves, which might be the sign of US dollar collapse.

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What is meant by a US dollar collapse?

http://gold-silver.us/forum/attachme...tid=7537&stc=1
I think the dollar peaked a couple of months ago. Whether it will collapse or not depends on its perception as world reserve currency, at this point I would say it's reputation is fading slowly. There are challenges most prominently if an international Yuan is launched by China, the perception can erode quickly too, is it a given that money will flock to USD in a major Middle East conflict? Price of oil would go through the roof, which should be dollar negative. Could stretched out US military even handle war with Iran, if Iran is backed militarily by China and Russia? And war with Iran is guaranteed if Israel decides to attack reactors and nuclear sites. You could probably count out most NATO allies in that situation, apart from Britain maybe. Suppose China makes Yuan international at this point, and only accepts Yuan or gold for goods.

Just thinking loud here...

I used to imagine upon some effective counterbalance to the dollar, in immediate terms. Its obvious to me now that its control is complete. Its a slow grind to incremental slashes set up by its proponents. a completely new currency with some major powerhouses needs to be tabled, there are none that are aren't already owned by the casino.

An international yuan would be monumentally resource sapping to the planet, and physically impossible fiat, imo. Kind of a re-verse in finite Bitcoin meeting the infinite market.

The dollar has to kill itself, it will eventually and most likely sooner than Sparky thinks.

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Originally Posted by Sparky

What is meant by a US dollar collapse?

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You asked me this question earlier. Let me give a better answer by quoting James Rickards, from the introduction of The Death of Money.

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While the word collapse as applied to the dollar sounds apocalyptic, it has an entirely pragmatic meaning. Collapse is simply the loss of confidence by citizens and central banks in the future purchasing power of the dollar. The result is that holders dump dollars, either through faster spending or through the purchase of hard assets. ... The end result can be deflation (reminiscent of the 1930s) or inflation (reminiscent of the 1970s), or both.

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Originally Posted by Horn

An international yuan would be monumentally resource sapping to the planet, and physically impossible fiat, imo. Kind of a re-verse in finite Bitcoin meeting the infinite market.

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I could see that the international Yuan would tend to be deflationary, as the Chinese tend to save 30% of its incomes... And they would certainly save in their own currency if its value increases over the time. The printers of a world reserve currency needs to spend like drunken sailors... So that the rest of the world has anything to spend... :)

Maybe if they annexed Siberia away from Russia then built some huge dome to store heat in,

then they'd have room enough to inflate off and away from the dollar.

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Originally Posted by Horn

Maybe if they annexed Siberia away from Russia then built some huge dome to store heat in,

then they'd have room enough to inflate off and away from the dollar.

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They should adopt American consumers, it is the only way of staving off WWIII...

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Originally Posted by Neuro

They should adopt American consumers, it is the only way of staving off WWIII...

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That's too 90's, are u sure yur not related to the Clinton's?