Trump's shutdown trap?

[Cebu_4_2]

January 15, 2019


Trump's shutdown trap?

By Thomas Lifson

Has President Trump suckered Democrats and the Deep State into a trap that will enable a radical downsizing of the federal bureaucracy? In only five more days of the already "longest government shutdown in history" (25 days and counting, as of today), a heretofore obscure threshold will be reached, enabling permanent layoffs of bureaucrats furloughed 30 days or more.

Don't believe me that federal bureaucrats can be laid off? Well, in bureaucratese, a layoff is called a RIF – a Reduction in Force – and of course, it comes with a slew of civil service protections. But, if the guidelines are followed, bureaucrats can be laid off – as in no more job. It is all explained by Michael Roberts here (updated after the beginning of the partial shutdown):

A reduction in force is a thoughtful and systematic elimination of positions. For all practical purposes, a government RIF is the same thing as a layoff. ...

Organizations must stick to predetermined criteria when sorting out what happens to each employee. They must communicate with employees how and why decisions are made. ...

In deciding who stays and who goes, federal agencies must take four factors into account:

1. Tenure
2. Veteran status
3. Total federal civilian and military service
4. Performance
Agencies cannot use RIF procedures to fire bad employees.

Update: See also: OMB issues guidance on Reduction in Force layoffs due to partial shutdown

A lot of procedures must be followed, and merit ("performance") is the last consideration, but based on the criteria above, employees already furloughed can be laid off ("RIFed") once they have been furloughed for 30 days or 22 work days:

When agencies furlough employees for more than 30 calendar days or 22 discontinuous work days, they must use RIF procedures.
An employee can be terminated or moved into an available position[.]

This seems to be what was referenced in this remarkable essay written by an "unidentified senior Trump official" published in the Daily Caller, which vouches for the authenticity of the author and explains that it is protecting him from adverse career consequences should the name become known. I strongly recommend reading the whole thing.

The purported senior official makes the case that devotion to "process" eats up most of the time of federal bureaucrats and is also used by enemies of President Trump's initiatives to stymie the legitimate orders issued by his senior officials:

On an average day, roughly 15 percent of the employees around me are exceptional patriots serving their country. I wish I could give competitive salaries to them and no one else. But 80 percent feel no pressure to produce results. If they don't feel like doing what they are told, they don't.

Why would they? We can't fire them. They avoid attention, plan their weekend, schedule vacation, their second job, their next position – some do this in the same position for more than a decade.

They do nothing that warrants punishment and nothing of external value. That is their workday: errands for the sake of errands – administering, refining, following and collaborating on process. "Process is your friend" is what delusional civil servants tell themselves. Even senior officials must gain approval from every rank across their department, other agencies and work units for basic administrative chores.

Then the senior official notes what I have just called the "trap":

Most of my career colleagues actively work against the president's agenda. This means I typically spend about 15 percent of my time on the president's agenda and 85 percent of my time trying to stop sabotage, and we have no power to get rid of them. Until the shutdown.

Those officials who waste time and stymie the president's initiatives now are not present because they are not categorized as "essential."

Due to the lack of funding, many federal agencies are now operating more effectively from the top down on a fraction of their workforce, with only select essential personnel serving national security tasks. ...
President Trump can end this abuse. Senior officials can reprioritize during an extended shutdown, focus on valuable results and weed out the saboteurs. We do not want most employees to return, because we are working better without them.

Keep in mind that saboteurs cannot be individually identified and RIFed, but they can be included in the layoffs if they meet the criteria above in terms of seniority and service, and they must be given 60 days' notice. But once they are gone, they are no longer free to obstruct using the "process" as their friend, because they are gone.

You can expect lawsuits on every conceivable point, and I suspect that the definition of "furlough" will be one matter of dispute.

If this was the plan all along, it would explain why President Trump goaded Chuck and Nancy in his televised meeting with them last year, boasting that he would claim credit for the shutdown. How could they resist a prolonged shutdown when he made it so easy to blame him?

President Trump has proven that he is a "disruptor" who changes the framework of thinking on major issues by refusing to accept the "givens" – the assumptions of how things always have been done and therefore always must be done.

So who is the "senior official"? I don't know, but I think Stephen Miller is the sort of bold thinker who might volunteer to telegraph the strategy just five days before the deadline. Give Chuck and Nancy something to think about and probably reject as unthinkable. Then they can't complain that they weren't warned once the trap is sprung.

Such a mass RIF would be the Trump version of Ronald Reagan firing the air traffic controllers when they went on an illegal strike in 1981. That was completely unexpected by his enemies, vehemently criticized, and successful.

Among other benefits, it taught the leaders of the USSR that Ronald Reagan was a man whose threats cannot be dismissed as mere rhetoric. If you think that Xi Jinping, Kim Jong-un, Angela Merkel, and any other foreign leaders would not draw the same conclusion from a massive RIF, then you are kidding yourself.

https://www.americanthinker.com/imag.../211517_5_.jpg
Photo credit: Gage Skidmore (cropped).

My theory may be completely wrong, but I pray that it is not.
Hat tip: Clarice Feldman

Monica Showalter adds: Slate of all places has a useful chart on which agencies have the most RIFs on the line. Surprise, surprise: It's where the bureaucrats most in need of layoffs happen to roost.

https://www.americanthinker.com/imag.../211542_5_.png

[Cebu_4_2]

I urge everyone to research what happens when we hit the 30 day mark. I do feel for these people, change is hard, but there are other jobs out there. Time to enter the private sector with the rest of us. Where there are no nonessential jobs, just ones where you have to work to pay your mortgage.

“In just five more days 800,000 “non-essential” government workers can be legally furloughed (i.e. let go – forever). It is technically called a RIF – reduction in force. All of which begs the questions if they are non-essential why were they employed in the first place, and why have the American taxpayers been paying people who were not needed all these many years?

The truth is that many of these non-essential employees are SES members (Senior Executive Services), which are more colloquially known as members of the Deep State or Shadow Government. SES members cannot be fired, but they can be subjected to a RIF.

Trump has set a trap for the Democrats and they have walked headlong into it. If the Dems do not capitulate in the next 5 days, our government will be much more efficient and the taxpayers will no longer be financing 800,000 people who are not needed. The Dems will be forced to either fold or negotiate or else they will lose their grip on the Deep State. So if you have wondered why Trump has not already used his Executive Power to label the border crisis a National emergency, there you have it.

If I were to bet, my bet would be on the Dems folding before the 5 days expires. But then, Pelosi and Schumer are not very bright, so I wouldn’t put much money on it. If they fold, Pelosi and Schumer will be crippled going forward, but the Deep State will retain its grip on Washington. Either way Trump gains a win – he beats Pelosi and Schumer or he hamstrings the Deep State and saves taxpayers a lot of money in the process. (Note: And there are those who still think Trump is not very bright – think again.)”

[madfranks]

Amazing, if true. But somehow I doubt this was Trump's plan. If we hit 30+ days of furlough, my money's on not one single federal layoff.

[Cebu_4_2]

Amazing, if true. But somehow I doubt this was Trump's plan. If we hit 30+ days of furlough, my money's on not one single federal layoff.

If you scroll down 3/4 the page there is a calendar that shows the first missed paycheck will be the 21st day which was last Friday (11th):
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/...ddress-1103047

From what the Dems have claimed it's like no one has been paid in weeks... These people can get unemployment so they don't lose everything unless they are living way beyond their means.

As for Trump planning something remember he always said manage the downside and the upside will take care of itself.

I know a buttload of people are blaming Trump but lol he said he would take credit for a shut down months ago... Credit for it lol.

[Horn]

Government spending accounts for 42% of U.S. GDP.

If any part or that Fed tap only gets turned off the entire house goes up in flames.

Its just smoldering currently.

[EE_]

I urge everyone to research what happens when we hit the 30 day mark. I do feel for these people, change is hard, but there are other jobs out there. Time to enter the private sector with the rest of us. Where there are no nonessential jobs, just ones where you have to work to pay your mortgage.

“In just five more days 800,000 “non-essential” government workers can be legally furloughed (i.e. let go – forever). It is technically called a RIF – reduction in force. All of which begs the questions if they are non-essential why were they employed in the first place, and why have the American taxpayers been paying people who were not needed all these many years?

The truth is that many of these non-essential employees are SES members (Senior Executive Services), which are more colloquially known as members of the Deep State or Shadow Government. SES members cannot be fired, but they can be subjected to a RIF.

Trump has set a trap for the Democrats and they have walked headlong into it. If the Dems do not capitulate in the next 5 days, our government will be much more efficient and the taxpayers will no longer be financing 800,000 people who are not needed. The Dems will be forced to either fold or negotiate or else they will lose their grip on the Deep State. So if you have wondered why Trump has not already used his Executive Power to label the border crisis a National emergency, there you have it.

If I were to bet, my bet would be on the Dems folding before the 5 days expires. But then, Pelosi and Schumer are not very bright, so I wouldn’t put much money on it. If they fold, Pelosi and Schumer will be crippled going forward, but the Deep State will retain its grip on Washington. Either way Trump gains a win – he beats Pelosi and Schumer or he hamstrings the Deep State and saves taxpayers a lot of money in the process. (Note: And there are those who still think Trump is not very bright – think again.)”

Only problem with a RIF, is these deadbeats are not employable. Who's wants to hire them after looking at their resume?
Off to the unemployment and welfare line they go. Still better then keeping them.

[madfranks]

Only problem with a RIF, is these deadbeats are not employable. Who's wants to hire them after looking at their resume?
Off to the unemployment and welfare line they go. Still better then keeping them.

Good point. I've heard firsthand stories from people who know government workers, and typically they are more lazy and much less productive than someone working the private sector. I mean, you have to be productive to work in the private sector, otherwise you won't have a job, where when you have a government job, productivity means less budget next year.

[Hitch]

Good point. I've heard firsthand stories from people who know government workers, and typically they are more lazy and much less productive than someone working the private sector. I mean, you have to be productive to work in the private sector, otherwise you won't have a job, where when you have a government job, productivity means less budget next year.

Another good point. Especially about the budgeting. With .gov, the more productive you are, the less budget you get. Maybe Cebu is right with this 30 day "Trump" card laid out on the table, called a RIF.

One thing about Trump anyone with common sense can see. He's ruthless, exceptionally smart, and not very nice to those who oppose him.

[Horn]

What you'll most likely see just prior to the government going back to work is a dollar rout adjusted lower so that all items domestic are more expensive. Yearly Cost of living increases meaning 0

Its a banker's technocratic world OZ politics, Trump, Pelagrosi Poppins nothing to do with it.

[cheka.]

houston food bank is mobilizing to feed the gov sloths

bank usually provides free food to welfare-beneficiary obese africans and mexicans

doing God's work. God wants more diabetics motoring through walmart