MARCH 3, 2022
History has long been Putin’s war language, his way of analogizing and justifying Russia’s modern-day aggressions within past glories and humiliations. The Russian government’s lies that its current violence against the Ukrainian people is actually just a special operation to “de-Nazify” Ukraine simply extends the pro-Kremlin argument that Nazis came to power in Kyiv after the Euromaidan revolution of 2013-2014.
It is difficult to accept that even the Kremlin believes its propaganda that Ukraine’s Jewish president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is a Nazi. For a more explanatory narrative, one that exhibits some form of logic in the Kremlin’s thinking, it is more helpful to examine another much-used historical analogy for Russia’s war on Ukraine: Kosovo and the 1999 NATO bombing of then-Yugoslavia (today’s Serbia and Montenegro).
Protecting the local population from genocide, stopping an out-of-control nationalist government, affirming human rights, preventing atrocities worthy of the Nazis: These were core messages in Putin’s declaration-of-war address. They also self-consciously mirror the justifications given by NATO leaders for bombing Yugoslavia more than two decades ago.
This is no coincidence. In Putin’s Feb. 21 address, in which he announced Russia’s recognition of the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics, Putin referenced the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia and support for Kosovo as a touchpoint and justification. In his view, it seems, NATO fabricated a fake genocide in Kosovo to legitimize its intervention; now he was just doing the same. This was not only about providing precedent but also about sending a message: If the West can redraw borders for Kosovo, then we can redraw borders for the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics in eastern Ukraine...
Russia’s understanding of the 78-day NATO war against Serbia is quite different from that of many Western countries, which see it as a humanitarian intervention that prevented, or was even a response to, genocide. Western accounts place little emphasis on the lack of United Nations Security Council approval for the strikes or on the loss of civilian lives.
If you look at the most popular history portal on the Russian internet, which is Kremlin-funded, you will read that the crisis in Kosovo was not caused by the Serbian strongman Slobodan Milosevic deliberately stirring up nationalist tensions or ethnic cleansing of Kosovar Albanians and others. Instead, according to this site, it was caused by the United States, with the support of NATO and some European Union countries, which were exploiting Russia’s post-Soviet weakness and destroying its longtime ally, Serbia. Russia has long seen the Balkans as falling within its sphere of influence, and its fraternal relations with Serbia have historically been crucial to its exercise of power in this region.
Even at the time, contemporary Western and Russian media depicted very different images of the war in Kosovo. The West’s support for the Kosovo Liberation Army, which was fighting against Yugoslav forces for Kosovar autonomy from Serbia, led even democratically minded Russian opposition lawmakers to vehemently criticize Western actions in the Balkans. This sentiment grew stronger after NATO’s bombing campaign against Yugoslavia, which forced Milosevic to negotiate and cede Kosovo, leaving many Serb civilians to flee the area...
Through comments like these, Putin is not just trying to antagonize the West—he is also trying to render events in the Balkans an appropriate and relevant historical frame through which to interpret current Western actions and criticism of Russia. In so doing, he uses supposed Western hypocrisy to excuse his own disregard for international law, rendering it a matter of principle, parity, and pride that Russia should also be able to ignore the rules...
Seen through the prism of Kosovo and Russian grievances, an invasion that at first seemed entirely irrational begins to make more sense. By unleashing this war on Ukraine, Russia is demonstrating status parity with the West and calling a bluff on the latter’s lack of courage, and therefore power. Although Russia’s 2021 National Security Strategy detailed at length the Kremlin’s belief that the United States and the wider West are decadent powers—self-indulgent and in moral and cultural decline—it was not entirely clear until the invasion that Putin was so confident of Western cowardice he would act this brazenly.