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Thread: Ohhhh Ahhhh Ohhhh! Palladium!

  1. #1
    Dangerous Donald Neuro's Avatar
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    Ohhhh Ahhhh Ohhhh! Palladium!

    It is about to break $500!. Had a good week. Is Silverbach here?
    Cultural Marxism: -The idea that good, hard working, white people should pay for those who are not, and thus in the name of equality create the conditions for their own genetic annihilation

  2. #2
    coopersmith
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    Re: Ohhhh Ahhhh Ohhhh! Palladium!

    I hope this price holds until I can make it to the shop later in the week, as ive got some nice pall maples id love to trade for some gold.

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    Re: Ohhhh Ahhhh Ohhhh! Palladium!

    Quote Originally Posted by coopersmith
    I hope this price holds until I can make it to the shop later in the week, as ive got some nice pall maples id love to trade for some gold.
    Maybe I'm crazy but what's the advantage of trading palladium for gold?
    deme queso para el payaso

  4. #4
    coopersmith
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    Re: Ohhhh Ahhhh Ohhhh! Palladium!

    I see gold as being more recognizable. I bought these particular maples for $360 + $30 premium. They have appreciated $110 in the last 6 months.

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    Administrator JohnQPublic's Avatar
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    Re: Ohhhh Ahhhh Ohhhh! Palladium!

    Palladium is $504 right now. It has really recovered well after late 2008 (~$180).
    "What Difference, at this time, does it make?"

    "What is 'is'?"

    "Because you'd be in jail"

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    Dangerous Donald Neuro's Avatar
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    Re: Ohhhh Ahhhh Ohhhh! Palladium!

    Quote Originally Posted by JohnQPublic
    Palladium is $504 right now. It has really recovered well after late 2008 (~$180).
    I think it was down to 158 even... I bought 1.5 ounces at 230... But I am holding it for the long haul... I am thinking $10.000/ounce, but I might get greedy/nervous before that!
    Cultural Marxism: -The idea that good, hard working, white people should pay for those who are not, and thus in the name of equality create the conditions for their own genetic annihilation

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    Dangerous Donald Neuro's Avatar
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    Re: Ohhhh Ahhhh Ohhhh! Palladium!

    This thread needs a chart:

    http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/pd1825nyb.gif

    IMO we are still in the early stages of a steep parabolic curve...
    Cultural Marxism: -The idea that good, hard working, white people should pay for those who are not, and thus in the name of equality create the conditions for their own genetic annihilation

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    Administrator JohnQPublic's Avatar
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    Re: Ohhhh Ahhhh Ohhhh! Palladium!

    Quote Originally Posted by Neuro
    ...IMO we are still in the early stages of a steep parabolic curve...
    It is nce and smooth. Certainaly not a spike.
    "What Difference, at this time, does it make?"

    "What is 'is'?"

    "Because you'd be in jail"

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    Re: Ohhhh Ahhhh Ohhhh! Palladium!

    As silverbach would say, It has been the most predictable metal since its fall.

    Nero, only 1.5oz? with all the interest i thought you would be in it for a lot more than that. It is highly speculative but the history is there, IMHO its a better play than silver at this point. My only regret is that i didnt buy in at those low 158$ levels a few years back. I would dare to say that it is still a bargain at these levels, but personally wouldn't buy in over 500$. If we see metals take a bite on the next correction and PD dips back into the 450$ range, might be a good idea to think about getting a few more of those maples. I liked Silverbachs idea of buying into the pool account on monex. The yearly global consumption of palladium is 7.5 million ounces, in 2006 the russians where said to have about 15million ounces left, a 2 year supply, now it is reported that there stock pile is depleted.......For me the highly speculative part has to do with believing the reports, russia, cold fusion...bla bla bla bla bla. Who knows what they have, send me an Fn picture and i might believe! Whatever the case may be palladium has been the best performing metal so far!


    Silverbach is on the other forum. he posted on Some BS threads, nothing to do with palladium.
    Be cool,<br />Answer2me

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    Re: Ohhhh Ahhhh Ohhhh! Palladium!

    For your palladium reading enjoyment.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1857...-even-stronger

    Russia's Norilsk Nickel Mine (NILSY.PK) is the world's largest nickel mine, with its by-product, palladium, accounting for 45% of the world’s production.

    Recent termination of Russian government palladium stockpile sales, due to depletion of the stockpile, is just one of the reasons why palladium has extremely bullish supply/demand fundamentals, and why palladium performed the best among all four precious metals in 2009.

    Reduction of palladium production from the Norilsk Mine could further restrain the supply, and may prompt major industry users to panic hoard as they did in 2000/2001.

    One must correctly project Norilsk Nickel's 2010 metals production, to have an accurate picture of global platinum and palladium supply/demand outlook for 2010.

    Norilsk's Russian operation has two divisions, the Polar Division, which produces platinum and palladium as by-products, and the Kola Division, which handles only nickel and copper.

    The Polar Division proven reserve mineral ore contents are as follows:
    Ore Type Ni (%) Cu (%) Pt (g/ton) Pd (g/ton) Cu/Ni Ratio
    Rich 2.86% 3.98% 1.49 7.04 1.392
    Cuprous 1.13% 4.58% 2.57 10.80 4.053
    Disseminated 0.49% 0.89% 1.45 3.97 1.816

    There are mainly two types of ores, as the third, called disseminated, is insignificant:

    1. Rich type, which is rich in nickel but poor in copper, platinum and palladium content.

    2. Cuprous type, the opposite, poor in nickel, but rich in copper, platinum and palladium.

    In the past, I pointed out that Norilsk was switching to the rich nickel ore to cut costs and increase nickel revenue, or possibly due to the geologic structure of the ore body being mined.

    The effect of the production switch is that for the same amount of nickel, much less copper, platinum and palladium will be produced.

    The data in the past two years and Norilsk’s own projection for 2010 have confirmed my predictions of this, made in previous posts. The ore type switch can be closely monitored by looking at the Copper/Nickel production ratio and seeing how it changes over time.

    Here are the Norilsk Nickel Russian production numbers (Polar + Kola Divisions) over the years, plus 2010 projections:
    Year Ni (tons) Cu (tons) Pt (troy oz) ±% Pd (troy oz) ±% Cu/Ni
    2005 243,000 427,000 751,000 3,133,000 1.757
    2006 244,000 425,000 752,000 +0.13% 3,164,000 +0.99% 1.742
    2007 234,454 404,465 727,000 -3.32% 3,049,000 -3.63% 1.725
    2008 232,302 400,338 632,000 -13.1% 2,702,000 -11.4% 1,723
    2009 232,813 382,443 636,000 +0.63% 2,676,000 -0.96% 1.643
    2010* 234,000 363,000 655,000 +2.99% 2,715,000 +1.46% 1.551

    (* Based on Norilsk Nickel projection for 2010)

    We are interested in palladium, so we want to see only the productions of the Polar Division. After subtracting the Kola Division, here are the numbers for the Polar Division:
    Year Ni (tons) Cu (tons) Pt (troy oz) ±% Pd (troy oz) ±% Cu/Ni
    2005 123,000 361,000 751,000 3,133,000 2.935
    2006 122,000 351,000 752,000 +0.13% 3,164,000 +0.99% 2.877
    2007 119,000 338,000 727,000 -3.32% 3,049,000 -3.63% 2.840
    2008 122,000 339,000 632,000 -13.1% 2,702,000 -11.4% 2.779
    2009 122,813 321,443 636,000 +0.63% 2,676,000 -0.96% 2.617
    2010* 124,000 302,000 655,000 +2.99% 2,715,000 +1.46% 2.435

    (* Based on Norilsk Nickel projection for 2010)

    As shown in the chart, nickel production has remained pretty flat over the years. However the copper/nickel ratio consistently dropped. The drop of the Cu/Ni ratio accelerated since 2008 and continues to go significantly down in 2010 projections.

    As a result, I predict Norilsk’s palladium production in 2010 will not go up slightly as projected by Norilsk Nickel itself, but rather, should continue to drop significantly from 2009 levels, commensurate with the drop of the copper/nickel production ratio.

    I am predicting a palladium production level at 2.55M ounces for 2010, and platinum at 600K ounces.

    Is it ridiculous to expect that readers should believe my prediction, rather than Norilsk’s own prediction? From early 2008 on, based on my observation of the ore type switch, I insisted on my prediction of Norilsk palladium production at 2.7M level for 2008.

    But Norilsk has re-iterated that it’s on target to reach 2008 palladium production levels of 3.02M to 3.07M ounces. They still insist that previous full year projections were unchanged. In Q3 they did not revise annual guidance either. When the final result of 2008 came out to be 2.7M ounces, I was right, Norilsk Nickel was wrong. Why they insist on a wrong and overly optimistic guidance, is beyond me.

    The bullish case for global palladium markets now looks even stronger. Investors in the world’s only primary palladium producers, Stillwater Mining (SWC) and North American Palladium (PAL), will stand to profit from the expected palladium price surge in 2010.

    After falling continuously for 8 days, for a healthy correction from recent high, it’s now time to buy back these two stocks, SWC and PAL.
    Be cool,<br />Answer2me

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