Quote Originally Posted by FreeEnergy
CJay8, my barometer is also Fedex. Fedex pickup guys are actually independent contractors in US, not employees, they are running routes as a business. My Fedex guy (25 y.o.) in the past 3 years has built himself a nice business with 4 or 5 employees driving trucks. He probably could retire by the time he's 30. So...my barometer is how much packaging they are doing in our area (which is an upper middle class residential area with business centers sprinkled all over). Fedex is doing very good, they had no shipping volume decreases, and some routes actually increased.

Another barometer. Mostly older and expensive homes in our area, very few new homes available (no free land). About 2.5-3 years ago a developer built a development....sorry for tautology...of stickhouse McMantions. They planned about 30 new homes. Started building maybe 15. Sold about 7-8, then halted. Then for about a year it had 0 activity on the lot, nada, nothing. Until this month. This month, 2 new homes are being built. same stuff, sticks, drywall inside, plastic wrap and shingles on the outside, two storied ceiling...I can see a heating bill being $1K month, easy. So there's still throwaway money out there.

Another local developer. Had 0 activity for about a year, they've been building townhomes. Actually, in great location IMHO, walking distance to shops and local train. Up until 1.5 years ago they've built maybe 50, or a 100. Then halted for close to a year, half the lot still undeveloped. This has changed in late February, early March, they are building like crazy again.

The other side - local commercial properties market is in shambles. I am looking for a unit.... everything is available. Office, street corners, facing the street where there was 0 availability for years - pick the one you like. Discounts or additional perks are thrown in all the time. If you want to buy commercial, now maybe the time.
Your situation sounds similar to mine. I live in upper middle class neighborhood that was in Phase 3 of development. That phase being being the most expensive homes. About 15 lots sitting empty but in the last month they've started construction on 2 new houses. Builder does not have buyers, just taking a chance. However, I've seen a lot of people looking at the houses under construction. The price is down from 2 years ago but there is some progress. I have empty lot sitting next to me that I'm thinking about buying. It was 50 grand 2 years ago, we heard he'll now take 20 grand and I'm thinking of offering him 12K cash but would go 20 possibly. Downside is I don't want to stay here so when it's time to move that lot will be an albatross. But it's investment property so sometimes you gotta say "What the f*ck."

I'm amazed that FedEx makes money in spite of itself. I've never seen such stupid business practices in all my life. But I feel better about my future here than I did at Delta airlines.