Originally Posted by
FreeEnergy
CJay8, my barometer is also Fedex. Fedex pickup guys are actually independent contractors in US, not employees, they are running routes as a business. My Fedex guy (25 y.o.) in the past 3 years has built himself a nice business with 4 or 5 employees driving trucks. He probably could retire by the time he's 30. So...my barometer is how much packaging they are doing in our area (which is an upper middle class residential area with business centers sprinkled all over). Fedex is doing very good, they had no shipping volume decreases, and some routes actually increased.
Another barometer. Mostly older and expensive homes in our area, very few new homes available (no free land). About 2.5-3 years ago a developer built a development....sorry for tautology...of stickhouse McMantions. They planned about 30 new homes. Started building maybe 15. Sold about 7-8, then halted. Then for about a year it had 0 activity on the lot, nada, nothing. Until this month. This month, 2 new homes are being built. same stuff, sticks, drywall inside, plastic wrap and shingles on the outside, two storied ceiling...I can see a heating bill being $1K month, easy. So there's still throwaway money out there.
Another local developer. Had 0 activity for about a year, they've been building townhomes. Actually, in great location IMHO, walking distance to shops and local train. Up until 1.5 years ago they've built maybe 50, or a 100. Then halted for close to a year, half the lot still undeveloped. This has changed in late February, early March, they are building like crazy again.
The other side - local commercial properties market is in shambles. I am looking for a unit.... everything is available. Office, street corners, facing the street where there was 0 availability for years - pick the one you like. Discounts or additional perks are thrown in all the time. If you want to buy commercial, now maybe the time.