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Thread: Where are gold, silver, pgm prices going: big bank forecasts

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    Where are gold, silver, pgm prices going: big bank forecasts


    Where are gold, silver, pgm prices going: big bank forecasts

    While expected to remain broadly supported for the rest of the year, big banks do differ in their outlooks for gold, platinum and silver. pgm = Platinum Group Metals, basically platinum and palladium
    Monday June, 14, 2010
    LONDON (REUTERS)

    Gold prices are expected to remain broadly supported in 2010 by ongoing concerns over elevated sovereign debt levels, with the low interest rate environment also seen as beneficial to the precious metal.

    Platinum and palladium are expected to rise steadily after correcting sharply in May, with industrial demand for the autocatalyst materials seen rising as the broader economic environment improves.

    Below are recent forecasts for gold XAU=, silver XAG=, platinum XPT= and palladium XPD= prices from major market watchers.

    Gold prices were quoted at around $1,225 an ounce in afternoon trade on Monday, having reached a record high at $1,251.20 an ounce last week. Silver prices are currently near $18.50 an ounce, platinum near $1,550 and palladium near $450.
    MORGAN STANLEY (JUNE 13)

    * Morgan Stanley said it expects gold prices to average $1,159 an ounce in 2010, silver prices to average $17.48 and platinum prices to average $1,665.
    * "We... continue to like the outlook (for precious metals) in the coming months amid low global interest rates and an unresolved eurozone debt turmoil," it said. "We expect prices to rise on a quarterly average basis for the rest of the year.
    * Next year, it expects gold prices to dip to $1,125 an ounce, silver to average $17.28 and platinum to rise to $1,802.

    SOCIETE GENERALE (JUNE 11)

    * SocGen sees gold prices averaging $1,300 an ounce in the third quarter, rising to $1,350 in the last three months of the year. It expects silver to average $21 an ounce and $22 an ounce in the same periods.
    * For the full year, it sees gold at an average $1,240 an ounce, rising to $1,425 in 2011. It expects silver to average $19.60 an ounce this year and $24 in 2011.
    * "Gold and silver prices should continue to benefit from so-called safe-haven buying and inflation hedging," it said. "Inflation fears are likely to be persistent due to strong economic growth in emerging economies and on concerns that developed countries may be tempted to monetise some of their large amounts of sovereign debt."
    * The bank expects platinum to average $1,640 an ounce in 2010, and palladium to average $515. Next year it sees platinum at $1,680 and palladium at $550.

    DEUTSCHE BANK (JUNE 11)

    * Deutsche Bank sees gold prices averaging $1,215 an ounce this year. In the third quarter it expects to see the metal at $1,200 an ounce, rising to $1,400 in the final quarter of 2010. In 2011, it sees gold at $1,450 an ounce.
    * The bank expects silver to average $18.73 an ounce this year, rising to $22.00 in 2011. It sees platinum at $1,652 and palladium at $470 in 2010 as a whole, rising to $1,750 and $525 respectively in 2011.
    * "Gold markets continue to perform well, reflecting, in our view, the uncertainties with respect to future global monetary conditions," it said in a note. "We also expect that the other precious metals, silver and platinum in particular, could also start to perform in-line or out-perform gold."

    RBS GLOBAL BANKING & MARKETS (JUNE 11)

    * RBS sees gold averaging $1,000 an ounce this year and $1,075 in 2011. That forecast rises to $1,200 in 2012 and $1,300 in 2013. It expects silver to average $15.50 this year, rising to $17.50 in 2011.
    * The bank expects platinum to average $1,550 an ounce and palladium to average $450 an ounce in 2010, rising to $1,650 and $525 respectively in 2011.

    BARCLAYS CAPITAL (JUNE 11)

    * Barclays see gold prices at $1,215 an ounce in the third quarter of 2010, rising to $1,235 in the last three months of the year. In the same periods it sees silver at $18.50 an ounce and $18.80 an ounce respectively.
    * "A hat trick compiled of China slowdown concerns, fears of sovereign debt contagion and flight-to-safety investor demand has created a gold-friendly environment, and prices have subsequently risen to a new high," it said.
    "We believe motives for buying gold remain intact for now and that investor appetite should drive prices higher."
    * In the full year 2010, the bank sees gold at $1,166 an ounce, silver at $17.80, platinum at $1,643 and palladium at $470. Next year it sees the metals at $1,010, $14.30, $1,660 and $480 an ounce respectively.

    Dates are those on which research notes containing the forecasts quoted were released by the organisations involved, and do not necessarily correspond to the date the original forecast was made.
    A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Heinlein, Robert

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    Re: Where are gold, silver, pgm prices going: big bank forecasts

    Aren't all these banks on some sort of welfare or financial aid?

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    Re: Where are gold, silver, pgm prices going: big bank forecasts

    Yes so they are bullish on gold hahahahaa.
    A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Heinlein, Robert

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    Re: Where are gold, silver, pgm prices going: big bank forecasts

    Good point NOOB.

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    Re: Where are gold, silver, pgm prices going: big bank forecasts

    Morgan Stanley>* Next year, it expects gold prices to dip to $1,125 an ounce, silver to average $17.28 and platinum to rise to $1,802.

    So, I guess they are counting on a full recovery? With a serious boom to the auto industry?
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    Re: Where are gold, silver, pgm prices going: big bank forecasts

    Interesting and nice read. Most of the clowns should be out of business though so I'm not really sure what to make of their statements.
    deme queso para el payaso

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    Re: Where are gold, silver, pgm prices going: big bank forecasts

    so Gold to $1400 and Silver to $22?

    Might dig around and see what they were saying about gold in 2008. If I recall it was quite dire at the time. All those financial planners trying to save me from making a mistake with real money.

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    Re: Where are gold, silver, pgm prices going: big bank forecasts

    Let's sticky and revisit at the end of the year.
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    Re: Where are gold, silver, pgm prices going: big bank forecasts

    Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a hard battle.

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    Re: Where are gold, silver, pgm prices going: big bank forecasts

    Morgan Stanley had enough foresight to buy $6 or $7 billion in SF real estate in 2007.

    subsequently sold for a loss.

    i could have told them it was a bad investment.

    maybe i should apply for a consulting position.
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