OK, We Have A Debt-Limit Deal. Now What?

[mick silver]

there just making more new jobs for the people dont you guys see that ........ 12 jobs at a time

[keehah]

wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt-ceiling_crisis_of_2011

The debt ceiling has been raised 74 times since March 1962, including 18 times under Ronald Reagan, eight times under Bill Clinton, seven times under George W. Bush and three times (as of August 2011) under Barack Obama.

As of May 2011, approximately 40 percent of US government spending relied on borrowed money...

Since 2010, the U.S. Treasury has been obtaining negative real interest rates on government debt...

Prior to the debt ceiling crisis of 2011, the debt ceiling was last raised on February 12, 2010 to $14.294 trillion

$917 billion in spending "cuts" against a budget that is running at close to a $2 trillion deficit annually now? Is this some kind of joke?

Last year:
reuters.com: U.S. Congress approves boosting debt limit to $31.4 trillion

December 14, 2021
The U.S. Congress on Tuesday approved raising the federal government's debt limit by $2.5 trillion, to about $31.4 trillion, sending the bill to President Joe Biden to sign and avert an unprecedented default.

The passage follows a months-long standoff between Democrats and Republicans, with the latter seeking to force Biden's party to raise the debt limit on its own from the current $28.9 trillion level, generating fodder for attack ads during the 2022 congressional elections.

Could not find a Bing first page news result on current year debt ceiling crisis that even mentioned the size of the debt.
Furthermore, between September and December it seems Congress and reporters are no longer concerned about debt ceiling/shutdown threat on Dec 16, but I could find no explanation other than Mitch said so in November.

yahoo.com: U.S. debt limit increase not needed this year -Sen. McConnell

November 15, 2022
"I don't think the debt limit issue is until sometime next year," McConnell told reporters when asked whether the Senate could vote on an increase during the chamber's post-election work session that began on Monday and could extend until late December.

Treasury Department officials have voiced a desire for Congress to raise the debt limit during this Congress, fearing that it could become more difficult next year if Republicans, as expected, take majority control of the House of Representatives from Democrats.

govexec.com: House Delays Shutdown Threat by 10 Weeks After Approving Stopgap Spending Bill

SEPTEMBER 30, 2022
The House on Friday passed a stopgap measure to keep agencies afloat through Dec. 16, sending to President Biden’s desk a bill to avoid a shutdown Friday evening.The roughly 10-week spending bill will keep agencies funded at their current levels into the lame duck session of Congress, punting on full-year appropriations until after the midterm elections but creating a new deadline before the new Congress is seated... It also includes more than $12 billion for Ukraine aid,

nytimes.com: Leaders Back Away From Raising Debt Ceiling, Punting Clash to New Congress

Dec. 9, 2022
Democrats had urged party leaders to act during their lame-duck postelection session to increase the legal borrowing limit, taking advantage of their party’s final months of unified control. Doing so, they argued, would avert a potentially catastrophic conflict over the issue next year, when Republicans have threatened to block the move unless it is accompanied by substantial cuts to domestic spending and social safety net programs.

Failure to raise the statutory cap on the nation’s borrowing power — expected to be reached at some point next year — would lead to a first-ever default, creating financial chaos in the United States and the global economy.

But a lack of political urgency and a shrinking window to act before the holidays appear to have squashed the effort to address the issue this month...

Failure to act could result in staggering consequences for the U.S. economy, forcing American officials to choose between the continuity of assistance like Social Security checks and the payment of interest on the country’s debt. The threats from Republicans recall brinkmanship in 2011, when congressional Republicans sought to pressure President Barack Obama to accept similar spending cuts in exchange for raising the debt limit.

That standoff led to the downgrading of the credit of the United States and rattled American investors and the economy.

Goldman Sachs economists warned in an analysis this week that bipartisan support to raise the debt limit “will be necessary, but hard to achieve,” and that the United States could veer the closest it had come to the economic tumult of 2011 since that standoff. The analysts also noted that less than a quarter of Republicans and less than a third of Democrats who will serve in the House in 2023 were there in 2011...

Several Republicans, however, have said they do not feel the same urgency to take up the debt limit, amid a December pileup of unfinished legislative work. In the evenly divided Senate, at least 10 Republicans would need to join Democrats to ensure such a measure could advance absent a move to use the reconciliation process...

After weeks of negotiations, Republicans and Democrats remain at odds over how to split funding between military and social programs. Talks are set to continue through the weekend ahead of the Dec. 16 deadline, though aides said lawmakers could pass a one-week stopgap bill to give negotiations additional time...

While several officials in private acknowledged their chagrin that Congress might delay action on the issue, Democrats reiterated that they were prepared to oppose any Republican proposals to cut domestic spending, particularly for Social Security and Medicare.

“It’s an incredible thing that they’re even contemplating going down this road,” said Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, who is set to become the minority leader in January. “But if that’s a fight they want to have, with respect to holding the American economy hostage to the debt ceiling, that is a fight that we are prepared to lean into aggressively — and we will win.”

[keehah]

Two weeks to fatten or flatten the DC budget.

sports.yahoo.com: Biden signs short-term budget deal to avoid government shutdown for a week

December 16, 2022
President Biden on Friday signed a short-term budget deal hammered out by Congress, narrowly avoiding a government shutdown while giving legislators another week to negotiate a full spending package.

Biden's signature came just one day after the Senate voted to advance the continuing resolution, which would keep government spending levels unchanged for an additional week. The House passed its continuing resolution the previous day by a largely partisan vote of 224 to 201. The short-term deal expires at midnight, Dec. 23, at which point Congress must act again to avert a full government shutdown.

"Negotiations keep trending in the right direction," Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said ahead of the Senate's vote. "But," he cautioned, "we still have a lot of work left to do and not enough time to do it, unless we extend government funding for another week."

[keehah]

reuters.com: U.S. government posts $378 billion deficit in March

April 12, 2023
The U.S. government recorded a $378-billion budget deficit in March as outlays outpaced revenues, the Treasury Department said on Wednesday.

That compared to a budget deficit of $193 billion in the same month last year...

The March deficit brought the year-to-date fiscal deficit to $1.1 trillion, up 65% from a year earlier...

Unadjusted receipts last month totaled $313 billion, down 1% from $315 billion in March 2022, while unadjusted outlays were $691 billion, an increase of 36% from the same month a year earlier.

reuters.com: US debt ceiling deadline could be sooner than anticipated, banks warn

April 18, 2023
The U.S. government's deadline to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling could be sooner than expected, raising the prospect of a short-term debt limit extension, analysts said on Tuesday...

The Treasury Department has warned that the federal government could reach the moment when it will no longer be able to meet its financial obligations as early as June 5, while the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has forecast that moment would come sometime between July and September.

Meanwhile, on Monday, U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy outlined spending cuts his fellow Republicans would demand in exchange for voting to raise the debt limit...

The cost of insuring U.S. debt against default for one year stood at about 95 basis points as of Monday, according to Refinitiv data - well above 2011 levels, when a standoff over the debt ceiling triggered the first credit downgrade of the U.S. government.

Goldman Sachs had projected the Treasury would exhaust its cash and borrowing capacity by early to mid-August, but they said weak April tax receipts could pull the deadline forward.

cnn.com: Here’s what’s in the House GOP debt limit bill

April 20, 2023
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has unveiled his plan to address the nation’s looming debt ceiling drama, offering to raise the borrowing cap by $1.5 trillion to prevent a default....

The Treasury Department is temporarily using cash on hand and “extraordinary measures” to pay the federal government’s bills on time and in full until Congress grants it the authority to resume borrowing beyond the current $31.4 trillion limit. Once those are exhausted, the US would start to default on its obligations, which would unleash economic upheaval globally.

[osoab]

What a great thread...

Ponce, LT....

Olmetein! haven't seen the man for quite a spell. Along with AndreaGail (psyop cough/cough)

I pissed Mick Silver off. Apologies Mick! It's been too long.

I have nothing more to add.

Evening to all.

[monty]

Devvy Kid writes on the madness of the Congress and all the backers of a fiat currency and their runaway infaltion.

A quote that tells the actual state of affairs in (failing) USA today

No where in the U.S. Constitution does Congress or the USDA have any authority to fund welfare programs. No doubt the socialists and communists in Congress will want to fall back on the “general welfare” clause when they have no idea what it means. General Welfare Clause (A must read, not too long) – Naturally, none of this is taught in the government dumbing down indoctrination sewers they call public schools. It’s more important to learn what pronouns to call Johnny who thinks he’s Cathy or Susan who thinks she’s Robert.

Debt Ceiling Battle – More of the Same


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By: Devvy
May 1, 2023

Yet another debt ceiling whizzing contest is going on between the two parties. Much of it is nonsense and bull excrement by selected, er, elected members of the U.S. Congress. Such geniuses are killing this country. If two sparks touched between her ears, this nincompoop would electrocute herself. Moore’s rant is good for the primaries next year.

Dem Rep. Moore: Work Rules in Debt Limit Bill ‘Would Save a Lot’ But They Force People to Work for ‘Small Businesses’ that ‘Exploit People’, April 28, 2023
Rep. Do-Gooder is missing the point. TANF (Temporary Assistance for Needy Families): “The Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program provides states and territories with flexibility in operating programs designed to help low-income families with children achieve economic self-sufficiency. States use TANF to fund monthly cash assistance payments to low-income families with children, as well as a wide range of services.” Division of HHS (Health & Human Services), another unconstitutional cabinet.
Right now, the TNAF budget is running about $17 BILLION dollars that does not exist. Every penny has to be borrowed from the candy store called the Federal Reserve which we pay interest on through eternity. States receive ‘block grants’ to fund TANF.

the remainder of Devvy’s writing

[keehah]

April 12, 2023 The March deficit brought the year-to-date fiscal deficit to $1.1 trillion, up 65% from a year earlier...

cnn.com: Federal budget deficit expected to nearly double to around $2 trillion, government watchdog says

September 6, 2023

The federal budget deficit is expected to balloon to about $2 trillion for fiscal year 2023, roughly double what it was in the previous fiscal year, according to a government watchdog group.

[image]
Federal Deficit
2017 $665B
2018 $779B
2019 $984B
2020 $3.1T
2021 $2.8T
2022 $996B
2023 $2T (estimated)
[/image]

The deficit projection from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget and its tally for fiscal year 2022 do not include President Joe Biden’s federal student debt cancellation plan, which the Supreme Court struck down earlier this year before it took effect.

The US Treasury Department lists the fiscal year 2022 deficit as $1.4 trillion because it takes into account the cost of the president’s proposal. The agency is expected to report that the current fiscal year’s deficit will be about $1.7 [1.02?] trillion because it will reflect the cancellation of Biden’s initiative...

Tax receipts were an estimated 10% lower in the first 10 months of the fiscal year, compared to the same period in the prior year, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s latest report...

At the same time, spending is up 10%, compared to the prior year, according to the CBO.

Spending on Social Security benefits jumped 11%, mainly because of a hefty annual cost of living adjustment stemming from a spike in inflation and because more people have joined the entitlement program as the Baby Boomers age.

Medicare outlays increased 18% because of changes in payment rates and in the types and amount of care beneficiaries received, the CBO said. And federal spending on Medicaid rose 6%...

In addition, spending on education, defense and veterans’ health care services all increased.

Even more notable, spending on interest on the public debt skyrocketed 34%, mainly because interest rates are much higher than they were in the first 10 months of fiscal 2022...

Even if interest rates drift down to the CBO’s estimates, the national debt is on track to reach a record share of the economy by 2029, and the US will have to shell out $10 trillion in interest payments over the next decade, according to the committee. That would add to the pressure on Congress to cut spending or increase taxes.


“We made a lot of economic policy assuming that interest rates would always be low and assuming that revenue would be strong,” Goldwein [senior policy director at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget] said.

Croc was a little off in the OP; cpo.gov: Federal Budget Deficit for Fiscal Year 2011: $1.3 Trillion

However the federal debt has gone from a ceiling of 14.294 February 2010 to
The debt ceiling was last raised on February 12, 2010 to $14.294 trillion to a 32.6 Trillion debt August 2023

[keehah]

investopedia.com: U.S. Debt by President: Dollar and Percentage

_______________Total Change____Percent Change

Franklin D. Roosevelt $178,464,714,660.98 791.8%

Woodrow Wilson $23,036,251,492.50 789.9%

Ronald Reagan $1,604,482,712,041.16 160.8%

George W. Bush $4,217,261,484,712.34 72.6%

Barack Obama $7,663,615,710,425.00 64.4%

George H. W. Bush $1,207,189,695,334.34 42.3%

Richard Nixon $121,339,561,890.14 34.3%

Donald Trump $6,700,491,178,561.60 33.1%

Joe Biden $2,499,993,043,258.10 8.8%

Jimmy Carter $208,861,000,000.00 29.9%

Bill Clinton $1,262,689,326,747.48 28.6%

Theodore Roosevelt $483,479,337.65 22.6%

Gerald Ford $87,244,000,000.00 16.4%

Lyndon B. Johnson $35,865,507,168.58 11.5%
Herbert Hoover $2,555,913,960.03 15.1%

William Howard Taft $228,827,633.12 8.7%

Dwight D. Eisenhower $20,259,699,209.80 7.6%

John F. Kennedy $16,888,694,386.36 5.8%

Harry S. Truman $422,991,375.50 0.2%

Warren G. Harding -$1,627,743,187.18 −6.8%

Calvin Coolidge -$3,646,519,788.06 −17.2%

...As of August 2023, the U.S. national debt stands at $32.6 trillion.

In January, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced that the government hit its debt ceiling, the maximum amount of money that the federal government can legally borrow. When this happens, the U.S. Treasury needs to find other ways to pay expenses until the debt ceiling is raised by Congress.

Yellen said the U.S. government would begin taking “extraordinary measures” to prevent a sovereign default[29].

A hotly contested deal was finally struck between Democrats and Republicans in June, suspending the debt ceiling and allowing further spending until 2025[30].

Reranked by total change:

_______________Total Change____Percent Change

Barack Obama $7,663,615,710,425.00 64.4%

Donald Trump $6,700,491,178,561.60 33.1%

George W. Bush $4,217,261,484,712.34 72.6%

Joe Biden $2,499,993,043,258.10 8.8%

Ronald Reagan $1,604,482,712,041.16 160.8%

Bill Clinton $1,262,689,326,747.48 28.6%

George H. W. Bush $1,207,189,695,334.34 42.3%

Jimmy Carter $208,861,000,000.00 29.9%

Franklin D. Roosevelt $178,464,714,660.98 791.8%

Richard Nixon $121,339,561,890.14 34.3%

Gerald Ford $87,244,000,000.00 16.4%

Lyndon B. Johnson $35,865,507,168.58 11.5%

Woodrow Wilson $23,036,251,492.50 789.9%

Dwight D. Eisenhower $20,259,699,209.80 7.6%

John F. Kennedy $16,888,694,386.36 5.8%

Herbert Hoover $2,555,913,960.03 15.1%

Theodore Roosevelt $483,479,337.65 22.6%

Harry S. Truman $422,991,375.50 0.2%

William Howard Taft $228,827,633.12 8.7%

Warren G. Harding -$1,627,743,187.18 −6.8%

Calvin Coolidge -$3,646,519,788.06 −17.2%