Has anyone published saying the US dollar WILL NOT collapse?

[KenJackson]

I've read a couple books that predict the collapse of the dollar within a couple years, if not months. And I've seen a number of articles with the same theme. But I haven't noticed a single article or book that declares these are just alarmists and that the economy will continue or improve.

Has anyone read anything recently that says the US dollar will not collapse within the next couple years?

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Let me just add an example of what I'm talking about from MarketWatch:

So prudent investors please listen, very, very closely: It doesn’t matter whether the markets crash or merely suffer a major correction, GMO is warning us the S&P 500 has a high probability of falling to “negative real returns over one-year, three-year, and seven-year periods.” And that sure sounds like another way of saying a major crash is dead ahead.

[Sparky]

Yes. Many of my posts. I think the idea of a US Dollar collapse within the next couple of years is ridiculous. I know I'm in the minority here on this one. But I'm willing to debate all takers. And the debate starts with a definition of "collapse".

[KenJackson]

I meant published articles and books, presumably by people who are good enough at it that they make a living reading the financial markets' tea leaves.

And the debate starts with a definition of "collapse".

Ah, very good. I was kind of vague.

For the purposes of this question, I mean at least a panicked stock market sell-off worse than 2008, maybe worse than 1929, not just a correction.

In a larger context "collapse" means we have printed or created so much currency and have so much debt compared to revenue that obligated expenses (entitlements plus interest on the debt) surpass our ability to print more money to cover it. That is, printing new money shrinks the dollar faster than the sum increases. It would really be a loss of confidence in the dollar that would make everyone run to the bank to withdraw their money. Though in today's world, I guess everyone would try to log in and shift their cash somewhere. I don't know where.

The most common trip point I've heard of is the world's rejection of the dollar as its reserve currency. China is buying up as much gold it can possibly lay hands on so it can put the yuan on the gold standard. Any gold-backed currency would seem a lot more stable than the ever-shrinking dollar.

But what I want to know is, does any prognosticating author have a valid reason to say it's not going to happen.

[Sparky]

You don't want to be listening to people who make money reading financial tea leaves. They make money by telling you one thing, and then putting their money in the other direction.

Your premise is all messed up. Do you realize that during the 2008 market sell-off, the US Dollar soared? Your OP talks about a dollar crash, but then you talk about a stock market crash. Those two things usually work in the opposite direction. The reason that a dollar won't crash any time soon is for exactly that reason. At the slightest indication of fear, the world rushes to the dollar. Some day it will be exposed for what it is, but not until every other currency collapses first. So it won't be happening within the next two years.

Then, you don't really define a dollar collapse very well, which is very common in this forum. Loss of purchasing power is not a collapse. It's lost 95% of its buying power over a century, and yet it remains the "go to" currency for the rest of the world. The word "collapse" implies swift and complete disintegration. So a dollar collapse would have to mean something like at least one of these occurrences:

1) Rapid loss of purchasing power, like 50% in 18 months.
2) Sharp drop in the US Dollar index, well below it's low of 72. (It's currently around 80). I'd need to see something below 50 to call it a collapse.
3) Introduction of a replacement currency.
4) Record high interest rates (above 20%) required to defend its failing integrity.

I don't see how any of these could happen within two years. People here recognize the danger of fiat currency, but they don't seem to have a good understanding of the global puzzle pieces that need to come together in order for the USD to collapse. We're going to see a lot of global financial crises long before the dollar collapse. For one thing, both the Euro and Yen have to collapse first. Talk to me after one of those goes down in flames (per the above criteria), and then maybe we'll be within two years of a USD collapse.

[Bigjon]

I recently took a trip to Peru and can state emphatically that FRN's are held in high regard over whatever is the local currency (Soles). I assume it is that way all around the world and our role playing as the worlds reserve currency is far from over.

Still the question is can a group of governments put together trading partnerships that exclude the FRN? Our military is strapped as far as taking on all the evil perceived by our bankers in the world. I would guess that the "dollars" demise will be gradual, most of those foreign governments own a ton of "dollars" and at the same time will try to use their own currencies for trade sidestepping the dollar.

[Dogman]

I recently took a trip to Peru and can state emphatically that FRN's are held in high regard over whatever is the local currency (Soles). I assume it is that way all around the world and our role playing as the worlds reserve currency is far from over.

Still the question is can a group of governments put together trading partnerships that exclude the FRN? Our military is strapped as far as taking on all the evil perceived by our bankers in the world. I would guess that the "dollars" demise will be gradual, most of those foreign governments own a ton of "dollars" and at the same time will try to use their own currencies for trade sidestepping the dollar.

Dam good questions,

Think frn's will hold even if our gov baffles the world, because the us is considered stable compared its resources and history vs any other country in the world.

In time it probably will change, but china has major problems, they maybe over reached. South America (Brazil is cracking at the seams) Russia, other than their oil, which is the only thing keeping them healthy, lots off hot air, as on this forum.

Suspect it will be a a case of keeping on keeping on with the same players.

The big one which has not played out is what is Russia going to do concerning the Ukraine, will it be a worldwide let it happen, as in the mid 20th century which led to ww2. Who in the hell knows, tho stupidity does have a record to repeat itself.

Not all cards are on the table.

But as far as the dollar is concerned, it is more stable than any other in the world, so short term, it is probably safe. There is nothing that can be considered safe to replace it.

[KenJackson]

You don't want to be listening to people who make money reading financial tea leaves. They make money by telling you one thing, and then putting their money in the other direction.

Yeah, I know. Everyone's liar but you. But that's what everyone says. I'm trying to listen to all sides and piece together the truth. But right now I'm getting a resounding SHTF-soon signal and I'm looking for a some balance.

[The dollar has] lost 95% of its buying power over a century, and yet it remains the "go to" currency for the rest of the world.

That's been true since Bretton Woods, but apparently many countries HATE it, and want to do something about it. And China is making such a big shift in gold across the surface of the earth that the earth might shift on its axis. Why would China do that? Because they've been receiving payment for goods in depreciating dollars for decades to their great disadvantage and to our great advantage. And we label them "currency manipulators".

One of the things I've recently read is that China has signed agreements with 20 countries to do trade in its yuan instead of dollars, including Saudi Arabia where they buy oil. That's big.

The word "collapse" implies swift and complete disintegration.

Well, not complete. The citizens of Weimar could still buy things for a wheelbarrow full of currency. And they had lots of it.

But yes, some are predicting that the dollar will lose its reserve currency status and suddenly we'll have to buy yuan or some other currency to buy our oil and to trade with. But buying another currency with freshly printed dollars will be more difficult and expensive when other countries don't need them and are already irritated by having to suffer with them for so long.

4) Record high interest rates (above 20%) required to defend its failing integrity.

Another thing I've only recently learned is that the reason inflation is reported as being low is because they've taken food and fuel out of the equation. So apparently the two leading contributors to inflation are ignored when calculating it. Some have said current inflation would be perhaps 10% if it was calculated like it was in decades gone by.

I don't know, Sparky, I've been plodding along paying only a little bit of attention for most of my life but the fact that we're printing trillions of dollars with quantitative easing started to seem like such an incredibly stupid thing to do that I've started to pay attention and read about it. And oh good grief!

I hope you're right.

[KenJackson]

I recently took a trip to Peru and can state emphatically that FRN's are held in high regard over whatever is the local currency (Soles). I assume it is that way all around the world and our role playing as the worlds reserve currency is far from over.

That was a point one prognosticator made. He said that for years when he traveled overseas, he didn't even bother converting currency since everyone accepted dollars. But recently that's not been the case. So you've seen the same thing. (I haven't flown in about a decade and don't intend to until the Fourth Amendment is restored.)

[palani]

The collapse of the dollar will commence when a single event occurs.

That event is when you stop accepting them and stop passing them off to others as payment for debt.

[Horn]

Still the overwhelming opinion of both sides is to park your dollar in some sort of tangible assets when gaining them.