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Thread: Has anyone published saying the US dollar WILL NOT collapse?

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    Great Value Carrots Sparky's Avatar
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    Re: Has anyone published saying the US dollar WILL NOT collapse?

    Quote Originally Posted by KenJackson View Post
    ...
    I hope you're right.
    It's not like I'm painting a rosy scenario Ken! All of your concerns are warranted. Trouble lies ahead because of the many things you mentioned. And we should be taking precautionary steps.

    But a dollar collapse is low on the list of immediate concerns. There's a better chance that your money will get locked up, or steadily lose its buying power (not collapse), or that the availability and distribution of food and tangible items will be disrupted, or that the gravy train for those on the dole can't be met and it will cause social unrest that could turn violent. The dollar will likely be in relatively short supply and strong demand as these things begin to take place. Only when the gov't accelerates the dollar creation program to meet these needs will it start to become at risk.

    People think the dollar printing is high now, but it's really only at a few percent annual rate compared to the total money supply. Although long term harmful, they are able to mask this in the short term. When the handouts begin to overwhelm the system, then you'll see some serious printing, and some accelerated dollar damage (potential collapse) rather than the continuous erosion we see now. But this is not within a couple of years. More likely it's 5-15 years down the road. Other trouble will surface before that.

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    Great Value Carrots Sparky's Avatar
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    Re: Has anyone published saying the US dollar WILL NOT collapse?

    Haven't seen much talk of a dollar collapse lately as the USD broke the 100 mark yesterday, up 28% in just 9 months. Technically, it's probably due for some type of a retreat because this type of move in a major currency is astounding. The .618 Fib level is at around 101 and it's almost reached par with the Euro, so it may be reaching an interim top soon. It's probably ready for a period of retreat. But remember, it can't really be in trouble until the Euro and the Yen go under. Only then does the clock start ticking on the Dollar.

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    Re: Has anyone published saying the US dollar WILL NOT collapse?

    The dollar collapse is ongoing. It's a 100+ year collapse, but the curve has accelerated severely in recent years, signalling the approach of terminus. If you are looking for signals there are plenty. History will likely mark the start of the "final collapse" in 2008, so where does that leave us?

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    Re: Has anyone published saying the US dollar WILL NOT collapse?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sparky View Post
    Haven't seen much talk of a dollar collapse lately ...
    I have. But it's a little different now. Last year several people predicted it would collapse by the end of 2014. Now they're all a little more cautious.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sparky View Post
    But remember, it can't really be in trouble until the Euro and the Yen go under. Only then does the clock start ticking on the Dollar.
    Can't? Who says? I've heard or read a number of authors saying the world's financial systems have become to tightly intertwined that when one goes, they'll all go together.

    One of Mike Maloney's videos presented a graph that showed the stock markets of Japan, Russia and Brazil used to rise and fall totally independently of each other. But now, as of about 2008, all the world's stock markets rise and fall in lock step. There is one world market. Interesting, but scary.

    Quote Originally Posted by Half Sense View Post
    History will likely mark the start of the "final collapse" in 2008, ...
    History will indeed have a lot to say about 2008. But the discussion seems to be about a specific event that causes a fast domino effect (e.g. Greece defaulting on it's debt with the other PIIGS nations looking on admiringly).

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    Great Value Carrots Sparky's Avatar
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    Re: Has anyone published saying the US dollar WILL NOT collapse?

    I don't buy this "100-year collapse" business. That's not what a collapse is. That's like saying a bridge starts to collapse the day you finish building it, because eventually it is destined to collapse. There is no collapse until you can't use the bridge any more. The dollar will not be considered collapsed until transactions with it become problematic.

    I agree that 2008 was significant in the historical sequence of events, and that the world's financial system is intertwined. But it is so large that I think it will take time for the entire sequence to play out. Look how long it has taken just for the European crisis to unfold. Even this first domino with Greece has taken years, and it's still not there. The "world leaders" can see the writing on the wall, so they can plan each domino. The whole system is based on perception, and they have lots of tools for controlling perception.

    Greece, Europe, then Japan...I say they play out in 2015-2020. The U.S. and the fate of the dollar play out 2020-2025. This is just the opinion of someone who has been preaching all along that a dollar collapse in 2014 was just a ridiculous thought.

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    .999 Unobtanium Horn's Avatar
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    Re: Has anyone published saying the US dollar WILL NOT collapse?

    Whats your thoughts on the supposed "international" China yuan being introduced, Sparky.

    Do you think they can managed to keep that huge population over there in chains long enough to make it some sort of reality, and the implications.

    Or smoke and mirrors?

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    Great Value Carrots Sparky's Avatar
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    Re: Has anyone published saying the US dollar WILL NOT collapse?

    Quote Originally Posted by Horn View Post
    Whats your thoughts on the supposed "international" China yuan being introduced, Sparky.

    Do you think they can managed to keep that huge population over there in chains long enough to make it some sort of reality, and the implications.

    Or smoke and mirrors?
    I think this is a significant development in the long sequence of events that are unfolding. The unveiling of this new international transaction system was delayed from last year to later this year. I think it's success/failure will have a large impact on the ultimate path of the dollar over the next decade. If it is embraced quickly, the threat to the dollar is accelerated. As such, there will be highly influential parties interested in creating obstacles to its success.

    Even if its initial implementation is not successful, it does set the groundwork for organized challenges to U.S. dollar hegemony. It's a significant event, but is probably consistent with the time frame that I've identified. In the short run, it will force countries to "choose a side". I think we can guess who they are already, but it will put them out there visibly. This is one of the reasons it may face resistance, i.e. countries will have to openly spite the U.S., which is usually not in their best interest.

    I think keeping the Chinese population in chains is a non-factor. The real factors exist at the much higher political level. Everyone else is a pawn. The politicians are smart enough to keep the pawns fed and entertained.

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    .999 Unobtanium Horn's Avatar
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    Re: Has anyone published saying the US dollar WILL NOT collapse?

    Right, a tainted fig leaf.

    My estimation is of another fiat Euro, meant to create velocity where there otherwise is none. Then again becoming disposeable rapidly.

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    Re: Has anyone published saying the US dollar WILL NOT collapse?

    When talking "collapse" you must be referring to something's ability to hold weight, or support value.

    The dollar has gained value recently against other currencies and commodities have become less expensive in that deal. The global economy has been thrown off balance. America was the marketplace of the world and America was a strong- the strongest manufacturing place as well. You cannot have a marketplace unless the people have money to spend. And you cannot have honest money if you are not producing value for others.

    China soaked up the manufacturing base, which also soaked up the engineering and support markets. This depleted Amerika of millions of jobs... productive jobs. Instead we now have government jobs, low-paying menial service jobs and welfare. This does not make a strong consumer base. The purchasing of cheap crap from China will slow down more and eventually Amerika will be marginalized out of the equation if the Chinese market can gain enough purchasing power to support its production. Methinks not.

    We are seeing deflation. There are less dollars on the street to buy the still-abundant supply of goods. The wages do not support further expenditures. That does not stop government from spending further into debt and legislating more blood-sucking parasites onto the economic machine. Money velocity drops. This deflates the money supply. Borrowing drops. This is the lack of new money production. Debt default is direct money destruction.

    The debt money system requires payback plus interest, which has deflation built into the design. Its life cycle pulls more money from the marketplace than what was created. To combat this, more money must be borrowed into existence with a growing economy than is destroyed by debt payment and debt default. Fail at this and the money system- not the dollar- collapses. The dollar will follow as a component of the money system since its value is based on confidence in the money system.

    There is no fair way to inflate the money supply when the sytem is broken, and it is broken by design. Government printing- or borrowing on behalf of those who cannot borrow, and then putting that debt onto the unwilling taxpayers is a sure way to destroy the money system. It buys some time but its result is like tasty poison water to a thirsty crowd. Debt money is poison water to a consuming body. When the body can take in no more water and is still dying, more water is not the answer.

    We all consume more than we produce. The supply of solar energy grows food and provides energy for our physical needs. If the sun stopped shining, we would soon die because our energy source was cut off. The money system requires an energy source to survive. As good old Hypertiger noted, when we can no longer supply what the sytem needs, the system dies. And since the system is so intricately tied into the survival of many people, they will die. Imagine having a son that was emitting energy on and off sporadically. It would be unbalanced and impact plant growth. We have an unbalanced economy that cannot sustain economic growth.

    How long will it last? As long as the people continue to allow the parasite to make their decisions.
    SPECTRISM time countdown2025

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    Iridium
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    Re: Has anyone published saying the US dollar WILL NOT collapse?

    Quote Originally Posted by KenJackson View Post
    I've read a couple books that predict the collapse of the dollar within a couple years, if not months. And I've seen a number of articles with the same theme. But I haven't noticed a single article or book that declares these are just alarmists and that the economy will continue or improve.

    Has anyone read anything recently that says the US dollar will not collapse within the next couple years?

    ------------------------------------------------------------
    Let me just add an example of what I'm talking about from MarketWatch:

    andy gause has faded it. i agree with him. rickards and the like are selling books/subs pushing fear and ignorance

    deflation is a f-ing joke without specie money. as is any mention of biflation. there is ALWAYS biflation. but more price rises than price reductions

    the one world currency is here, been here...and not going anywhere soon. it operates under various names -- frn, euro, yuan, yen, peso, pound, etc

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