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Thread: $18.50 silver?

  1. #11
    Unobtanium gunDriller's Avatar
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    Re: $18.50 silver?

    Quote Originally Posted by 1970 silver art View Post
    Yeah it is doable. I see silver breaking 2013 intra-day low of $18.14 and I think that $14-$15 will be the low for silver for 2014 and will go further down after that.
    Heck Yeah $18.50 is doable.

    that's 1 1/2% down from this morning's low around $18.80. not a big deal.


    Silver is currently one of the lowest priced commodities, relative to other commodities. It was tracking lower with copper, but gave up that correlation when Copper climbed back into the $3's and silver retreated to the $19's.


    I wonder how much of production costs are in the $21 range, the $15 range, the $9 range. I have seen all sorts of numbers reading mining articles.


    I think a big part of the games we have seen since the price action of April 12/ 15 2013, is (in addition to being an expression of the Strong Dollar policy and all the currency manipulation teams & games assoc. with it), is to twist the arms of the miners to hedge their production.

    If they hedge at $20 per ounce, the profits from any price rises will accrue to the bullion bank that sold them the contract - or whoever they re-sold the hedge contract to.
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  2. #12
    Great Value Carrots Silver Rocket Bitches!'s Avatar
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    Re: $18.50 silver?

    We're close to the edge here. If it goes any lower, mines will start closing in droves. If that happens it will choke supply. Can't wait to see what happens.
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  4. #13
    Iridium Spectrism's Avatar
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    Re: $18.50 silver?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sparky View Post
    Spectrism, your hypothetical seems misplaced. If this is a Zimbabwe marketplace flooded with dollars, why does it take fewer of them to buy silver than it did a year ago, or two years ago?
    No... re-read it. I said the opposite.


    Silver has not held its value better, as you say. It buys 15% less than it did a year ago, 30% less than two years ago, and 45% less than three years ago. There is very little in the marketplace that has LOST more of its purchasing value than silver has over this period.
    In Z dollars, we saw nothing but devaluation of that currency. Don't mix metaphors in time zones. I used the devaluation of Z dollars to illustrate the way the US dollars will devalue compared with silver. Z dollars in the past example.... US dollars in the future.



    How does your commentary relate to the price of silver, which is the subject of this thread? You say we are on the verge of transition. My point is that we don't know this at all. We may say dramatic transition is inevitable, but we are mistaken to assume that it is just around the corner. This is a lesson that we have been slow to learn.
    There is a chain of events to unfold. That chain will be much like this:

    unemployment and underemployment ---> destruction of US marketplace ---> drop in sales volume

    ---> falling business production ---> more unemployment ---> less $$ to buy non-essentials

    ---> drops in certain assets (some temporary and some permanent) ---> system crash

    ---> bank failures and business closings ---> fiat money becomes worthless as money takes other forms

    When the system crashes, the US dollar will crash too. The few essentials available won't be traded for paper dollars.
    SPECTRISM time is almostout

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    Unobtanium gunDriller's Avatar
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    Re: $18.50 silver?

    Quote Originally Posted by Silver Rocket Bitches! View Post
    We're close to the edge here. If it goes any lower, mines will start closing in droves. If that happens it will choke supply. Can't wait to see what happens.
    http://allthingsd.com/files/2011/05/rocket.jpeg


    it's interesting how it becomes logical to pick $18.50 as a price point, not $18.55.

    i ask because i wonder if the market collectively works the same way. targeting round numbers with buy and sell triggers. ($18.50 is sort of a round number).


    that's not to say it will hit $18.50 exactly.
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    Unobtanium Dogman's Avatar
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    Re: $18.50 silver?

    Cycles of boom and bust, market is driven by demand, demand drops and supply's/prices bust! Rinse and then repeat, once supply drys up prices go higher, mines open and kadybarthedoor, then repeat.

    Ever hear of the story about the tulup and people that wear wooden shoes, and their investor's?
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    Re: $18.50 silver?

    All I know is I got my buy order in at 8:12am EDT this morning, at the very bottom of today's activity, and I have a 'gut feeling' that's as low as she's going to go. I'm very patient, and it's been years since I've pulled the trigger.
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    Unobtanium osoab's Avatar
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    Re: $18.50 silver?

    Quote Originally Posted by VX1 View Post
    All I know is I got my buy order in at 8:12am EDT this morning, at the very bottom of today's activity, and I have a 'gut feeling' that's as low as she's going to go. I'm very patient, and it's been years since I've pulled the trigger.
    great success in that trade.
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    Re: $18.50 silver?

    Quote Originally Posted by VX1 View Post
    All I know is I got my buy order in at 8:12am EDT this morning, at the very bottom of today's activity, and I have a 'gut feeling' that's as low as she's going to go. I'm very patient, and it's been years since I've pulled the trigger.
    No sub $18.50 silver yet, but kudos to all those that took the opportunity to pull the trigger at lower prices...

    ...$20.80 at the moment

    I picked up some 1 oz Crocs a few days ago @ $19.50...nice lookin' coins and reasonably priced, they're cheaper than kooks and koalas!

    http://cdn.goldstackers.com.au/store...crocodile3.jpg

    Anyhow, the question I keep asking myself is how many more times is the price going to puch down to the $18.50 level before it makes a solid move beyond $30?

    I was predicting that it was going to be $30 in July, but I'm not so sure at all anymore.

    Looking back I remember it hovering for liker a year around the $17 to $19 region after it got slamed down to $8.50 in late 2008/early 2009...then it spent the next nine months going vertical...

    Giddy days, hey kids?

    The other point to make about that $17 to $19 region is thats where the price peaked to before the smackdown as well. If the next phase is anything like that, the next leg up will have major resistance at $50. So its not going to shoot vertically up beyond here immediately.

    It will move up in an orderly fashion to $50 like it did to $17 to $18 in 2009/2010 .

    Then moonshot =====> $120 to $150 (or maybe even just a round $100 initially) at which time $50 becomes the new support...

    I don't think I'm saying anything revolutionary here, everyone knows about support and resistance. I've just been getting a little bored of all the prognosticators and just wanted present some rational perspective on price movement.

    My gut feeling is it won't ever go below $18.50 BEFORE it takes out $50...I cant see $8.50 or even $13.50 silver again for a long time to come...

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    Unobtanium gunDriller's Avatar
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    Re: $18.50 silver?

    Silver has made the round-trip from the $18's to the high $20's about 4 times, including the June 2013 lows.

    But the whole game ends as soon as very small amounts of capital start entering the PM markets.

    This week's action was started by the purchase of about 10 tons, followed by the piling on of momentum investors.
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    Great Value Carrots Sparky's Avatar
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    Re: $18.50 silver?

    Quote Originally Posted by aeondaze View Post
    No sub $18.50 silver yet, but kudos to all those that took the opportunity to pull the trigger at lower prices...
    I snagged a handful at about $18.85.


    ...$20.80 at the moment nyhow, the question I keep asking myself is how many more times is the price going to puch down to the $18.50 level before it makes a solid move beyond $30?
    I don't think it's going to make it to $18.50 again. It may drop below $20 over the next month, which tends to be the seasonal low period. But I think there will now be a lot of buyers at sub $20, so it will be hard to go much lower.



    The other point to make about that $17 to $19 region is thats where the price peaked to before the smackdown as well. If the next phase is anything like that, the next leg up will have major resistance at $50. So its not going to shoot vertically up beyond here immediately.

    It will move up in an orderly fashion to $50 like it did to $17 to $18 in 2009/2010 .

    Then moonshot =====> $120 to $150 (or maybe even just a round $100 initially) at which time $50 becomes the new support...

    I don't think I'm saying anything revolutionary here, everyone knows about support and resistance. I've just been getting a little bored of all the prognosticators and just wanted present some rational perspective on price movement.
    I think this is about right. I think we're setting up for a prolonged upleg. It may take through the summer to finally emerge, but I think we are in for an orderly move from $20 to $50 that will take 18-24 months. By orderly, there could be a number of surges and retreats, but I expect an orderly series of higher highs and higher lows.

    I agree about the resistance at $50. It's common to require three shots at breaking major resistance, with the third finally punching through. That will probably open the gate for the final run-up over a 6-12 month period, probably in 2017. I think the top will be somewhere in the middle of your $100-$150 range. After that, this bull cycle will be over and prices will subside for a generation.

    I've often thought about when the peak gold/silver price will occur relative to peak financial doom. Under this 2017 scenario, the financial crisis may climax during the 10-year period following 2017. This would imply a deflationary period. If it is inflationary, I still think silver's peak purchasing power will come in 2017. For instance an ounce of $20 silver today buys 6-7 loaves of bread. $125 silver might buy 15-20 loaves of bread at $7/loaf. Then if high inflation ensues and the silver price extends even higher, $200 silver might buy 10 loaves of bread at $20/loaf. I don't see $200 silver, but it's not out of the question.

    I could see the long-term post-peak silver price retreating to either $20 or $50 for a full generation. Yes, there will be a lot of support at $50. But that will likely only be a third of peak price. In the 1980's, the bottom was less than a tenth of peak price. That would be argument for the $20 level. But perhaps I'm looking too far ahead, for when my unborn grandchildren are adults and planning their own stacking strategy...


    My gut feeling is it won't ever go below $18.50 BEFORE it takes out $50...I cant see $8.50 or even $13.50 silver again for a long time to come...

    Anything can happen, but I expect that we won't ever see $8.50 or $13.50 again.

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