Latest on ELENIN

[JJ.G0ldD0t]

ahh- missed that link keehah

This one is interesting

[Silver Rocket Bitches!]

Rumors that this comet could be the Blue Kachina prophecized by the Hopi indians which is the predecessor to the Red Kachina which will cause the cleansing of the Earth.

Prophecy, I know but interesting nonetheless.

http://strictlyhonest.com/comet-elen...-star-kachina/

[keehah]

Keehah's Prediction: That was it. The show is over.
(other than a small meteor shower in fall)

http://members.westnet.com.au/mmatti/sc.htm
http://members.westnet.com.au/mmatti...lightcurve.gif
http://www.universetoday.com/wp-cont...isrupition.gif
http://www.universetoday.com/88494/c...isintigrating/

Animation of 5 images taken Aug 19,22,23,27,29 ...Astronomers monitoring Comet Elenin have noticed the comet has decreased in brightness the past week, and the coma is now elongating and diffusing. Credit: Michael Mattiazzo.

On August 19, a massive solar flare and coronal mass ejection hit the comet, which may have been the beginning of the end for the much ballyhooed lump...

“We’ve been following it in the STEREO spacecraft images and a number of amateurs have been following it in their telescopes,” said Australian amateur astronomer Ian Musgrave, author of the Astroblog website. “Shortly after the coronal mass ejection the comet flared up and you could see some beautiful details in the tail, with the tail was twisting about in the solar wind. But shortly after that Earth- bound amateurs reported a huge decrease in the intensity of the comet.

Perhaps the CME also electrically blasted the comet apart, but I have yet to see evidence of this.

Comet Elenin is unique in its orbital interaction exposing the earth to it and the sun. But it is not a large one.

But for most comets the last century the entire show has basically been the coma brightening for days or months. Then it drops and the comet just fades away.

I would not be at all surprised if this ends up being the end of the show for Elenin. It normally is.
It may have electrically stabilized with the local environment.

Perhaps a solar flare will knock off the rest of the tail in the next month that may come our way. But it seems to have already happened and drained away that charged plasma before any such event would cause it to come our way in the next few weeks.

In other words we did't dodge a bullet, but that the sun fired too soon.
Elenin it seems was only loaded with one cartridge, it only had the power of a BB, and the sun dischared it when it was aimed 90 degrees away from earth.

If the comet was larger or had more capacitance, it would have quickly recovered its brightness after the solar flare and continued to brighten as it traveled towards the sun, and be recharged to take another shot (eject another tail) better aimed at earth.

[sirgonzo420]

so what's the story?

Doom or no doom?


(cue Howie Mandel) lol

[keehah]

http://images.nationalgeographic.com...98_200x150.jpg
National Geographic, June 22, 2011: New Comet Found; May Be Visible From Earth in 2013
Icy body may even be bright enough to be seen in the day, expert says.

By March 2013 the comet, named C/2011 L4 (PANSTARRS), is expected to come within 30 million miles (48 million kilometers) of the sun—closer even than the innermost planet, Mercury...

"The current path of the comet ...showing it coming up from the south—underneath the Earth—going up the back side of the sun and into the north sky, very nearly perpendicular to the plane of the solar system," Wainscoat said.

The fact that it's going around the back of the sun from our point of view may ultimately affect the comet's visibility, but a lot will depend on how close the body actually gets to the sun.

Also, whether the comet is north or south of the sun when it reaches peak brightness will determine which hemisphere on Earth gets the better view.

For now, "we think it will be an easy binocular target, but it may very well make it to naked-eye level, and there is even a potential that it may be visible during the day," Wainscoat said.

"But it's just really too early to tell. We may not know for sure until only a few weeks before it gets here."

[platinumdude]

http://www.spaceweather.com/

SO MUCH FOR DOOMSDAY: Comet Elenin (C/2010 X1), widely known for inaccurate reports of its threat to Earth, appears to be breaking apart. Observations by amateur astronomer Michael Mattiazzo of Castlemaine, Australia show a rapid dimming and elongation of the comet's nucleus akin to that of Comet LINEAR (C/1999 S4), which also disintegrated when it approached the sun in 2000. Comets are fragile objects, so this development while unexpected comes as no surprise. Readers with pertinent images of Elenin are invited to submit them here.


Here is another article on the disintegration:

http://www.examiner.com/space-news-i...disintegrating

[Horn]

But now we'll get sugar coated and glazed...

[keehah]

Here is another article on the disintegration:

What disintegration? Why is this claim made?
The link mentions "nucleus in the process of disintegrating" but all I see in the images is the coma fading. In no way are those pictures clear enough to show a 2km rock breaking apart inside that Jupiter sized plasma coma.

[Joe King]

What disintegration? Why is this claim made?
The link mentions "nucleus in the process of disintegrating" but all I see in the images is the coma fading. In no way are those pictures clear enough to show a 2km rock breaking apart inside that Jupiter sized plasma coma.

The coma is also elongating. Which indicates that the comet may very well not be in one chunk anymore.
ie smaller pieces spread out over a larger distance should make it appear dimmer and to look more elongated.
Being as close to Perihelion as it is, it should be getting brighter and more well defined, but it's not.

http://members.westnet.com.au/mmatti...isrupition.gif


Besides, if it breaks up is that a problem? Those pieces are still many millions of miles away and they will have no effect on the Earth. Same as if it were in one piece.

[keehah]

Let us just say the coma is elongating then. The rest is just speculation bias towards incorrect theoretical understanding of the situation. Disinformation.

If it did break up, then this could increase the strength of any meteor storm in early November as we cross the comet's path. I would expect any nucleus disintigration should follow observations of energetic electromagnetic jetting. Observations suggest CME discharge (coma got smaller) and more distorted coma due to higher solar wind as the comet gets nearest to the sun. I have yet to see any pictures showing anything other than the smaller coma after being hit by the CME.

http://www.thunderbolts.info/tpod/20...0119comets.htm

“Splitting and jetting may be connected … At the moment Comet West split, the individual fragments brightened noticeably, and propelled large quantities of dust into space in the first of some dozen bursts”. The same could be said for the more recent Comet Linear breakup.

Why would intense, high-velocity jets and explosions of dust, traveling at supersonic speeds, precede the fragmentation of a comet nucleus? In the electrical model of comets, the answer is obvious. The behavior of comets will never be understood in simple mechanical terms because they are electrified bodies orbiting within the plasma environment of an electrified Sun. The solar plasma behaves like a very good conductor in the Sun's electrical connection with the galaxy. And just like any good conductor, the electric field within the plasma is very low. But unlike good metal conductors, the solar plasma is of extremely low density and therefore its current-carrying ability is limited.

Comets must adjust to the changing plasma potential as they move radially toward or away from the Sun. This adjustment is not so difficult on the long, slow journey through the outer reaches of the solar system. But it usually involves visible electric discharge effects as the comet dashes through the inner solar system.

The comet nucleus behaves like a capacitor. And as any electrical engineer knows, if a discharge occurs within a capacitor it will explode violently. That is what causes comet nuclei to fragment and it is why the event is commonly preceded by outbursts far more energetic than could be explained by sublimating ices. The energy is provided by the stored electrical energy within the nucleus.

All that is required to trigger the comet fragmentation is an electrical breakdown within the comet. In this sense, it may be analogous to the electrical breakdown evident in an earthquake. And that breakdown in the comet may happen with any sudden change in the solar plasma environment. The more sudden the change in the comet's electrical environment, the more likely that flaring and fragmentation will occur.