Suggestions for a SHTF Index

[Sparky]

What objective measures would you include in an index to monitor a general degradation to a SHTF scenario? It would be interesting to examine some fundamental components to track this, though it would be hard to keep objective. Once we agreed on the components, maybe we could do a regional GSUS poll. The idea would be to rate each component 0-10. It would need to be a prevailing rating for an entire region, either the U.S., or large regions of the U.S. Below are some thoughts. Maybe others have more suggestions:

1) Accessibility of food- A rating of 0 would mean that you can essentially go to the grocery store and get whatever you want, at what would be considered historically cheap prices. A 5 would mean that prices are noticeably high for all items (not just specific items), and there may occasionally be some items that are temporarily unavailable. A 10 would mean that you would go to the grocery store with the expectation that there would be little food available at any price. I'd assess the current situation as a 2. I'm surprised how relatively inexpensive food is considering its real value, and how most everything remains available.
2) Accessibility of water- Similar metric as food. In my part of the country, I'd rate this as a 3. Water is widely available to all, but some local water costs are high, and bottled water isn't cheap. In some regions, it is not as readily available.
3) Accessibility of gasoline. Widely available, but historically expensive. I'd rate this a 5. A rating of 0 might be current wide availability at under a buck a gallon. A 10 would be gas lines, rations, and $10+ per gallon.
4) Accessibility to heating energy (gas, oil, propane, etc.). I'd rate a 4; similar to heating energy, but natural gas remains relatively less costly.
5) Accessibility of other supplies. I'd rate this as a 2. I can still get whatever I want, but some things are somewhat expensive by historical standards. Other things remain surprisingly inexpensive for their value.
6) Functioning of the banking and currency system. I'd rate this a 1. Cash is still readily available at banks and ATMs, with only anecdotal disruptions. For the most part, you can convert your digital account to a payable bank check at any time, or convert a check to cash, or back to digital. During 2008, I would have bumped this up to a 3 on a regional basis where bank failures were observed, but it still remained relatively isolated. A 10 would be a nearly complete breakdown in the banking system, where you couldn't access your account, or with limited availability to FRNs.
7) Availability of revolving credit. I'd rate this a 2. It still seems like credit is widely available, even to those of meager means, but it has contracted somewhat, especially for younger people.
8 ) Availability of non-revolving credit. Cheap mortgages for unqualified people would be a 0, like in 2007. Tight credit at 20+% interest rates would be a 10. I'd say we're at a 2 right now with historically low rates, but not accessible to all.
9) Accessibility to digital and paper investments. If you own stock or paper assets, can you liquidate them easily. For the most part, this still works fine, but there are occasional high-profile issues as with MF Global. I'd put this at a 1. A 10 would mean most all paper assets are frozen or non-convertible.
10) Availability and cost of housing. Housing is still widely available, but regionally expensive historically. I'd put this at a 5.
11) Incidences/intensity of public demonstrations. The Occupy scuffles would push this up to a 2.
12) Incidence of violent crime. Historically, we're probably somewhere in the middle, but most people are generally safe. I'd say a 3, factoring in high publicity events. But most crime is concentrated into known areas.
13) Incidence of personal property theft and home invasion. Maybe a 3.
14) Rate of unemployment. The nominal rate is 8.5%, the underemployment rate is 16%. Historically, this is probably at about a 6.
15) Restrictions of civil rights and liberties. We complain, and the trend is getting worse, but I think we're still only at about a 3.
16) Restrictions and availability of firearms and ammunition. Also still good, with an ominous trend. 3 for now.

That's what I've got so far. Adding up my totals, I get a 47 out of 160 total points, which is 29%, or a SHTF Index of 29 on a 100-scale. A SHTF threat probably starts at about a 50, with crisis mode beginning at 75.

Feel free to suggest other components, or criticize my initial assessments. I think a challenge is making the distinction between a global, national, regional, or local assessment. My suggested number are for the U.S. as a whole. This can be a GSUS work in progress.

[platinumdude]

http://www.raptureready.com/rap2.html

[Sparky]

For comparison, here's how I would have rated things during the height of the 1970's recession:

1) Food = 5. Expensive but no shortages. Meat was prohibitively expensive for some.
2) Water = 0. Incredibly cheap and available.
3) Gasoline = 8. Fights in gas lines, at relatively expensive prices.
4) Heating Fuel= 6.
5) Other Supplies = 4. Similar to food, i.e. available but pricey.
6) Banking system = 2. Still worked, with isolated incidences of failure.
7) Revolving credit = 6. Would have peaked at about 8 in the 1980s, with 20% rates.
8 ) Non-revolving credit = 6. Would have peaked at about 8 in the 1980s, with 15% mortgage rates.
9) Paper investments = 2. No widespread problems.
10) Housing = 5. There was a bump in prices and rates were elevated.
11) Violent demonstrations = 3
12) Violent crime = 6. Urban areas were notably worse than today.
13) Property theft = 5.
14) Unemployment = 6.
15) Restriction of liberties = 2.
16) Restriction of firearms = 3.

Total of 63/160, for an index of 39. That seems about right. I still think it was worse at the height of the 1970s than it is now, but it didn't really approach SHTF levels.

[Sparky]

http://www.raptureready.com/rap2.html

Interesting and related, but I'm eliminating the spiritual and prophetic fulfillment element.

[Spectrism]

Interesting and related, but I'm eliminating the spiritual and prophetic fulfillment element.

I like the concept. If, however, you eliminate the spiritual/scriptural/prophetic portion, you really have no foresight about what comes next. I know why you do it. Also, you are not looking at major global influences, starting from debt and going to wars, earth calamities, international economic changes.

With just the initial items, you could be at 60/160 and the next day a worldwide monetary system shuts down as the Euro crashes, war erupts in Korea & Iran, and Russia moves two armies into Turkey.

[Sparky]

I like the concept. If, however, you eliminate the spiritual/scriptural/prophetic portion, you really have no foresight about what comes next.
...

I wasn't really looking at it as predictive; more of an ongoing "assessment". For example, from my previous post, I don't think we've even matched the 1970s recession yet.

[Spectrism]

I wasn't really looking at it as predictive; more of an ongoing "assessment". For example, from my previous post, I don't think we've even matched the 1970s recession yet.

Yes- not a bad idea to look at where we are compared with history. One challenge is to sort through the fake numbers and methods for counting those numbers.

Putting it on a bar chart might be a nice presentation.

I also like the idea of making it useful for predicting when things will crash- if at all possible. It could impact what we do- like avoiding cities or buying certain preps. When an item/category goes into the red zone, we can be more sensitive to those news items.

[Sparky]

OK, now adding a SHTF Doom Clock. You know, just for fun.
Initial target date: March 7, 2014.

Today: February 20, 2012
Index: 29/100
Target: March 7, 2014
T- 746 days and counting

Have a nice day.

[Book]

It would need to be a prevailing rating for an entire region, either the U.S., or large regions of the U.S.

http://www.lawboiseid.com/Boise_Divo...torney__3_.jpg

Thought-provoking thread Sparky.

Compared to Boise, Idaho it appears to me that much of the USA has already scored high in the SHTF index. Even in this very depressed economy, this town is very civil and relatively low-crime. Half the index doesn't even apply here. I imagine there are other areas also immune from this:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_GVV37PRkPp...university.jpg

[vacuum]

Missed this thread. It would be good to have these reports quarterly, Sparky.