AI on cooking the GDP books:
There are indeed articles and analyses suggesting that the U.S. may overstate its GDP growth or manipulate economic data for political or economic reasons. Below are some sources and perspectives that discuss this issue:
1. Shadow Government Statistics (SGS) – John Williams
Claim: Economist John Williams argues that U.S. GDP (and inflation) figures are distorted due to methodological changes over time.
Source: ShadowStats
Key Points:
Williams claims that if older GDP calculation methods (pre-1990s) were used today, reported GDP growth would be much lower.
He argues that adjustments like hedonic pricing (accounting for quality improvements in goods) artificially inflate GDP.
2. Forbes – "Is The U.S. Government Inflating GDP Growth?" (2016)
Article: Is The U.S. Government Inflating GDP Growth?
Key Points:
Criticizes the use of "seasonal adjustments" and other statistical tweaks that may smooth or exaggerate growth.
Questions whether GDP growth would look as strong under older calculation methods.
3. ZeroHedge – "How The US Government Fakes GDP Numbers" (2014)
Article: How The US Government Fakes GDP Numbers (Note: ZeroHedge is a controversial source, often critical of official data.)
Key Points:
Claims that the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) uses "imputations" (estimated values for non-market activity) to boost GDP.
Argues that methodologies like counting financial sector profits inflate GDP artificially.
4. The Wall Street Journal – "The U.S. Economy May Be Overstating Growth" (2015)
Article: The U.S. Economy May Be Overstating Growth
Key Points:
Some economists argue that productivity and GDP growth are overstated due to flawed deflators (inflation adjustments).
Suggests real economic growth might be weaker than reported.
5. NBER Paper – "A Critique of the BEA’s Hedonic Quality Adjustments"
Study: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Key Points:
Some economists criticize hedonic adjustments (e.g., for technology products) as subjective and potentially inflating GDP.
Main Arguments for GDP Overstatement:
Methodological Changes: Adjustments like hedonic pricing, seasonal smoothing, and imputations (e.g., "owner’s equivalent rent" may inflate GDP.
Financialization: Counting speculative financial sector activity as "production" can exaggerate economic output.
Political Incentives: Governments may have reasons to present stronger growth figures.
Counterarguments:
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) follows international standards (UN System of National Accounts).
Most economists trust U.S. GDP data as relatively reliable compared to many other countries.
Would you like deeper analysis on any specific aspect?
Republicans (Forbes and Zerohedge) challenge the GDP numbers during Democrat years, forgetting that Washington does the same during the Republican years.
The rest of the globe knows of this, American public is unaware.
The numbers have been cooked for decades with new models and ways to calculate GDP, inflation, unemployment, etc.