Discussion of daily PM price moves

[JohnQPublic]

Au back to even with Pt.

But Pd still holding strong. The automakers are tied to Pd in the short-medium term.

[Son-of-Liberty]

I've been noticing red during the day and green all night for the past few days.

[gunDriller]

the Cartel is working awfully hard to smash Gold & Silver, with the Dow at a new nominal high.

i've been watching them since about 2003, and i don't remember them ever orchestrating 1 1/2 years straight of massive quarterly, monthly, weekly, and daily price beat downs.

they beat gold down each today, then it usually recovers about $10.

[Sparky]

the Cartel is working awfully hard to smash Gold & Silver, with the Dow at a new nominal high.

i've been watching them since about 2003, and i don't remember them ever orchestrating 1 1/2 years straight of massive quarterly, monthly, weekly, and daily price beat downs.

they beat gold down each today, then it usually recovers about $10.

Keep in mind that this 18-month beat down comes on the heels a 34-month upleg. This current up/down cycle is now 52-months old, by far the longest in this entire gold bull. This long down leg is a consistent proportion in length to the upleg. But, yes, this is how they wear people down.

[Neuro]

Based on this afternoon's flat price and diminishing volume, they have not. The big players are not stepping in at this price. They want a lower price. Their job is to discourage current holders in order to get a lower price. They want you to be tired of waiting.

So, it looks like we're going down to the next level. The next high volume swing point was $1565 on 14 December 2011. Later that month on December 29, the price bottomed at $1520. We're likely to see one of those two prices. The December low represents the post-record low so far. If I had to guess, I think the $1565 would be more likely, since historically a new low is not typically set this far out in time (17 months) from the previous high.

So get yourselves emotionally prepared for a drop to at least $1565. For those of you who don't care about the short term because only the long term matters, nothing has changed for the long term.
I really haven't payed that much attention lately, but have we had a drop significantly below $1565, it was $1566 earlier today according to KITCO ticker in the top right window, the question is, is this it? Or should we await $1520 soon?

Btw I'll promise to send you 4 trillion oz's of silver, once it reaches $25 in Zimbabwe old currency, according to the bill, if you send me the bill first. ;D

[Sparky]

I really haven't payed that much attention lately, but have we had a drop significantly below $1565, it was $1566 earlier today according to KITCO ticker in the top right window, the question is, is this it? Or should we await $1520 soon?

Btw I'll promise to send you 4 trillion oz's of silver, once it reaches $25 in Zimbabwe old currency, according to the bill, if you send me the bill first. ;D

It dropped to $1554 on February 20th. What's notable today is the V-spike upward today exactly at that same $1566 swing point. That's what we like to see. The mining stock index also spiked at the same moment, at exactly the .382 Fib retracement of the entire big 34-month upleg. Amazing how in sync those two things were. Let's see if it holds.

I'd mail you a bill for the silver, but I think a stamp is Z$500,000,000.00.

[Neuro]

It dropped to $1554 on February 20th. What's notable today is the V-spike upward today exactly at that same $1566 swing point. That's what we like to see. The mining stock index also spiked at the same moment, at exactly the .382 Fib retracement of the entire big 34-month upleg. Amazing how in sync those two things were. Let's see if it holds.

I'd mail you a bill for the silver, but I think a stamp is Z$500,000,000.00.
Try to Imagine the shipment costs of 4 trillion oz's of Silver FOB with insurance and shipping in Z$... ;D

[Son-of-Liberty]

Looks like the cabal is busy hammering PM's again this morning.

http://www.kitco.com/images/live/nygold.gif

Can't leave Gold above 1600 for long.

[gunDriller]

can't leave Gold above 1600 for long.

they've shown a lot of determination.

next week is options expiry. there's no reason to think the Cartel has changed their spots. i think they will raid again, to get it back to a $15** price.

no sympathy for the Cartel here. i don't know how many $ Russia has but China sure has enough FRN's to call the bluff.

[gunDriller]

options expiry this week.

dollar getting stronger against paper currencies.

i doubt the Cartel won't attempt a major raid.

another swan-dive for PM prices.


except this time Putin is especially sick of bankster bullshit.

Putin could so easily pull strings to crash the Comex. e.g. offering some form of military cooperation to China in exchange for them buying up $100 billion of gold and silver.

[Neuro]

options expiry this week.

dollar getting stronger against paper currencies.

i doubt the Cartel won't attempt a major raid.

another swan-dive for PM prices.


except this time Putin is especially sick of bankster bullshit.

Putin could so easily pull strings to crash the Comex. e.g. offering some form of military cooperation to China in exchange for them buying up $100 billion of gold and silver.
That spike at 11.30 was that Putin, puttin a floor on gold?

[gunDriller]

That spike at 11.30 was that Putin, puttin a floor on gold?

no idea.

but the 50 minute flat-line from 10:40 to 11:30 Eastern time ?!?!?

what's going on there.

[Neuro]

no idea.

but the 50 minute flat-line from 10:40 to 11:30 Eastern time ?!?!?

what's going on there.
They saw a huge order coming in the pipeline, they knew it wasn't one of them. They closed the market for a strategy meeting on how to deal with it? Does it look the same on other platforms apart from Kitco? Netdania (can't see it because iPad doesn't support flash software...)?.

[Son-of-Liberty]

The flat line does not appear on the goldmoney chart. Not sure about netdania didn't feel like updating my java software.

http://charts.goldmoney.com/graph/0-2-840-1-4-0.png

[Neuro]

Just the normal turning off of Kitco, when the price jumps...

[Cebu_4_2]

What is the name of that add-on for pms and frns? I tried the kitco but it's not the right one.

[Sparky]

Based on this afternoon's flat price and diminishing volume, they have not. The big players are not stepping in at this price. They want a lower price. Their job is to discourage current holders in order to get a lower price. They want you to be tired of waiting.

So, it looks like we're going down to the next level. The next high volume swing point was $1565 on 14 December 2011. Later that month on December 29, the price bottomed at $1520. We're likely to see one of those two prices. The December low represents the post-record low so far. If I had to guess, I think the $1565 would be more likely, since historically a new low is not typically set this far out in time (17 months) from the previous high.

So get yourselves emotionally prepared for a drop to at least $1565. For those of you who don't care about the short term because only the long term matters, nothing has changed for the long term.

It's time to revisit this discussion today. It's now 7 weeks later and we've just ducked under the $1554 of February 20th. This puts the $1520 back into play. More precisely the low on 29 December 2011 was $1521. In 2012, the price scraped along the bottom on May 16, 23, and 30 with prices of $1527, $1533, and $1533 respectively.

In order to maintain the "higher low", we'd really like to see this one turn before it gets to $1533. But $1521 is the floor (so far) in this 19-month consolidation.

For perspective, a completely normal pullback in a healthy bull market is a 38.2% retracement of a big move. The big move from 2008-2011 was from $680 to $1921. The 38.2% retracement would pull it back to $1447. That would be brutal to endure if you are a price-watcher, but it would still not represent a technical breakdown in this powerful gold bull market.

And the fundamentals have not weakened at all. Steady as she goes, mates.

[madfranks]

Silver is dropping fast too. I didn't think we'd see $26 again.

[Sparky]

Silver is dropping fast too. I didn't think we'd see $26 again.

Heh, this is the last sentence I wrote in Post #246:

"Silver price is tougher to get a read on; not nearly as well-behaved as gold. It usually takes a bigger percentage hit than gold, so think in the $26.xx ballpark. If you already have your base stack in place, I'd hold out for the fire sale at that level. "

[mamboni]

This guy gets it. We are in endgame for the dollar system. The short term prices of gold and silver are irrelevant. What matters now is how many ounces you hold. Bank accounts, retirement accounts, paper investments: they can all get frozen siezed or outright cancelled at anytime. If you wait and try to time the metals prices you risk losing everything. Do not pick up pennies in front of a steamroller. This is the calm before the storm.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bs_IIANWxBA&feature=player_embedded



Now I will engage in wild, unsubstantiated speculation and some fact-backed bullets:

1. The FED is terrified, knowing that we sit on a proverbial powderkeg in the US bond market and dollar
2. The North Korean situation is being orchestrated by the powers that be to prop up the US dollar
3. The FED is shorting paper gold and silver like mad in a desperate attempt to kill momentum and public interest
4. Bank runs in the south of Europe are inevitable, if only as slow motion chronic drawdowns by depositors.
5. The big smart money is quietly moving out of southern Europe
6. When the southern European banks go down, that will be the end of the EU as Spain, Italy and Portugal will either leave the EU or face massive unrest and economic collapse domestically.
7. China and Russian are quietly but quickly siphoning off physical gold bullion from the west. These recent price drops only fuel the fire and will ignite Indian demand. China and Russia are to be the nucleus of a BRIIICS trading zone backed by gold and excluding the dollar.
8. Nations are one by one dropping the dollar from trade arrangements. The dollar reserve status is dying.
9. Watch the yen and gold - gold prices in Yen continue to record highs - this is the tell. The Yen will be the first fiat currency to blow up. The dollar will stengthen in the short term, but blow up last.
10. This is the end of the petrodollar age and American hegemony. After this is over, Americans will be reduced to third world economic status and confetti for dollars. Do not hold all your wealth in dollars or you will suffer said fate.

[mamboni]

Brother John gets it too. Folks, these certainly are "interesting" times!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1vyuC4Il44&feature=player_embedded#!

[mamboni]

This guy gets it too.


Dr. Roberts: “As I have explained, the orchestrated move against gold and silver is to protect the exchange value of the US dollar. The Federal Reserve is creating one trillion new dollars per year, but the world is moving away from the use of the dollar for international payments and, thus, as a reserve currency.



The result is an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. That means a falling price. The orchestration against bullion cannot ultimately succeed. It is designed to gain time for the Federal Reserve to be able to continue financing the federal budget deficit by printing money and also to keep interest rates low and debt prices high in order to support the banks’ balance sheets.



When the Federal Reserve can no longer print due to dollar collapse which printing would make worse, bank deposits and pensions will be grabbed in order to finance the deficit....


“The manipulation of the bullion market is illegal, but as government is doing it the law will not be enforced. It is an act of desperation. If bullion were not a threat, the government would not be attacking it.



The fact that the Federal Reserve is short selling bullion means that there is something desperate going on, and I assume it’s related to the US dollar. If the dollar drops sharply in exchange value the Fed can’t control the interest rate and the bond price and so all of the bubbles would blow up.



All of the recent reports of countries moving away from the dollar to settle their international payments has most likely caused a great many countries to look at getting out of dollars. We not only have the BRICS moving away from the use of the dollar, but also China, Japan, and all of the East Asians.



Recently we have even seen reports out of Australia that they are going to deal directly with China in their own currency. So this drop in demand for dollars when the Fed is creating one trillion new dollars every year means the exchange value of the US dollar is untenable.



The first move out of the dollar is in to gold. In fact this has been going on since the beginning of the 21st century. But the Fed doesn’t want that because if the price of gold rises too rapidly in terms of dollars it scares everyone. Also, if you had a sharp movement out of dollars you would in fact see a sharp fall in the exchange value. At that point the Fed has lost control and the whole scheme blows up.



So that is what the situation is. They are desperate. They are having to drive down the obvious alternative to the dollar, which is gold, in order to affect the psychology of people throughout the world. But China sits on the largest collection of dollars in the world and they have to be worried about it. In fact they have been lecturing us for years about our irresponsible monetary and financial policies. So they will be very glad to get out.



Now I don’t think this attack on gold on the part of the Fed can last much longer because the Indians will buy gold here as well. The BRICS will also use this opportunity to get rid of dollars. But what this is designed to do is break up the sentiment among Americans and gold bugs. It scares them. It is designed to stop the flow of money from ordinary citizens into gold.



The Fed is also hoping the offsetting run of the central banks buying gold won’t be enough, at least any time soon, to push the price of gold back above where the Fed has capped it. The Fed has been at this for a long time. First they capped the gold price (at around $1,900), and then they drove it below $1,750. Gold would come back to and even above the $1,750 level and the Fed would drive it back down.



But now they have it even lower. I think the last couple of days there has been an amazing amount of selling on the part of the Fed. It’s paper shorts, not actual people selling bullion. But they are trying to bust up the momentum in gold so they can hold on to their low interest rates, high bond prices, and continue printing money.



You see if the Fed can’t print money they can’t finance the federal budget deficit. Printing money is also how the Fed buys the bonds to drive up the derivative debt-related instruments on the banks’ books. It makes the banks look solvent.



If the Fed can’t print money they can’t buy the bonds to keep the banks solvent and buy the bonds to keep the Treasury operating. The rising gold price is a threat to that. So the Fed is taking desperate action against gold. I agree with you that this will be temporary. I don’t know how long this will last, how long they can get away with it, but certainly not for very long.”

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/3_Former_US_Treasury_Official_-_Fed_Desperate_To_Save_System.html

[LuckyStrike]

Well we shall see if the very strong physical buying comes in at 26-26.50 as it has in the past. If not, it may hit the teens :)

I really don't see why they wouldn't be able to manipulate these prices well into the future, I mean you are going short something without having to own the asset why wouldn't you do it forever?

IMO, the weak hands have been shaken out long ago. Anyone who bought on the way up at 40+ has probably slit their wrists by now and most here have probable been buying since the single digits or low teens and are probably pretty immune to these moves. Occasionally people who think they understand markets and know that I like PM's will say "man how about silver, it was 35 now it's 30, bet you wish you hadn't bought" I just smile and explain that I'm still up over 100% from my initial investment so I'm not too worried about it.


On a slightly different note, the mining shares are getting slammed and sentiment is like I've never seen it which from a contrarian view seems like we must be near a bottom. Thankfully I haven't taken a total bath in the shares and bought in at generally low prices but I'm still negative since I purchased them. Either way most/all pay a halfway decent Div and I don't really mind waiting. I know number one rule of investing is never double down on a losing bet and "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" buuuut it's tempting :D The lower the price the sweeter the Div :)

[mamboni]

Well we shall see if the very strong physical buying comes in at 26-26.50 as it has in the past. If not, it may hit the teens :)

I really don't see why they wouldn't be able to manipulate these prices well into the future, I mean you are going short something without having to own the asset why wouldn't you do it forever?


I'll give you three reasons you won't be able to short gold (and silver) forever: China, India and Russia.

[Uncle Salty]

Rats are most dangerous when they are cornered. The US dollar is cornered and gold and silver are paying the price...literally...for that gambit.

The upward explosion is going to be surreal...when it happens.

[gunDriller]

the US gov is like an addict.

instead of another injection, they just sell more paper gold and paper silver through their proxies JPM & HSBC.


i would say, it's not going to end well for them.

except for one thing ... they tend to take their frustrations out on the citizens, AKA US residents.

that's us.

[Son-of-Liberty]

My only frustration is that I had plans to turn some of my PM's into land this year. Ultimately they will go higher but time is important as it takes time to set up a homestead. Meanwhile financial conditions continue to deteriorate. I am hoping they can't suppress much longer but if they can I am going to have to make tough choices. This sucks.

[mamboni]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/29/Exter.png/600px-Exter.png

[Libertarian_Guard]

I have had enough of the phrase 'currency wars' it's misleading at best. The USD is only showing strength, as the euro & jap yen are announcing a printing spree. But it's all a race to the bottom with 'beggar thy neighbor' currency. And the funny part is the media calling China a manipulator, while nearly everyone else has put their fiat in the crapper with something close to zero % interest rates, that can only go lower!

Japan just ensured (as if it were needed) that interest rates across the world will continue to be chopped down.

2012 & 2013 interest rates might seem high compared with 2016 & 2017.

[gunDriller]

My only frustration is that I had plans to turn some of my PM's into land this year. Ultimately they will go higher but time is important as it takes time to set up a homestead. Meanwhile financial conditions continue to deteriorate. I am hoping they can't suppress much longer but if they can I am going to have to make tough choices. This sucks.

with real estate, timing is everything. if you have the cash for the "earnest fee", you might have 45 days to come up with the down payment (unless you're going all-cash.) there's usually enough time there to catch the market on an up-tick.

e.g. this morning, the crappy job stats came out at 8:30 Eastern. PM prices jumped at 8:30 Eastern. the Fed has said specifically that they will tie QE to job stats ... crappy job stats sort of guarantee more QE.

i think Au will make its way back to at least $1580 next week.

[Sparky]

It's time to revisit this discussion today. It's now 7 weeks later and we've just ducked under the $1554 of February 20th. This puts the $1520 back into play. More precisely the low on 29 December 2011 was $1521. In 2012, the price scraped along the bottom on May 16, 23, and 30 with prices of $1527, $1533, and $1533 respectively.

In order to maintain the "higher low", we'd really like to see this one turn before it gets to $1533. But $1521 is the floor (so far) in this 19-month consolidation.
...


For the record, the price turned at around $1537 yesterday.

[Sparky]

...
i think Au will make its way back to at least $1580 next week.

Or today.

[gunDriller]

seems like they're having an easier time slamming Gold today, than they are silver.

OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOH. Kilo-bars

http://www.providentmetals.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/300x/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/n/e/new-opm-silver_kilo-bars_1_1.jpg

[Sparky]

It's looking like we're not going to break off the bottom for good until we get into the summer doldrums. I would like to see the $1537 price hold, however.

[gunDriller]

the Vampire Squid has spoken -

Quoth Goldman Sachs, ""Despite resurgence in euro area risk aversion and disappointing U.S. economic data , gold prices are unchanged over the past month, highlighting how conviction in holding gold is quickly waning," said Goldman Sachs analysts Damien Courvalin and Jeffrey Currie in the note.

The analysts cut their gold forecast to $1,450 per ounce for 2013 and $1,270 for 2014, the second cut in their price target this year."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-says-time-short-132705633.html


Yeah, i trust them /sarc

[Sparky]

...
For perspective, a completely normal pullback in a healthy bull market is a 38.2% retracement of a big move. The big move from 2008-2011 was from $680 to $1921. The 38.2% retracement would pull it back to $1447. That would be brutal to endure if you are a price-watcher, but it would still not represent a technical breakdown in this powerful gold bull market.
...


OK, the message seems loud and clear from this morning's blowout that we are going after the $1447. Still looking for a July bottom, give or take a month.



...
And the fundamentals have not weakened at all. Steady as she goes, mates.


And both of these sentences still apply. ;)

[mamboni]

Gold and silver are dropping, Krugman says they're dead investments, Bernanke says gold is not money, bla bla bla. So, why does Draghi so desperately want Cyprus' gold? I'm sorry folks, but it is so obvious that we are being faked out by these bankster scumbags who are jawboning and naked shorting paper gold while simultaneously "demanding" physical gold. If you haven't figured this out by now than shame on you. This story says it all:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/pictures/picture-5.jpg (http://gold-silver.us/users/tyler-durden)
Mario Draghi Orders Cyprus To Sell Gold To Cover Bailout "Shortfall" (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-12/mario-draghi-orders-cyprus-sell-gold-cover-bailout-shortfall)

Submitted by Tyler Durden (http://gold-silver.us/users/tyler-durden) on 04/12/2013 - 11:52

Update, and sure enough: PANICOS DEMETRIADES SAYS CYPRUS CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE UNDER ATTACK. As a reminder, Panicos hold the now obsolete position of head of the Cyprus Central Bank.
As was noted two days ago (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-10/here-we-go-cyprus-sell-%E2%82%AC400-million-gold-finance-part-its-bailout) (so certainly not the news catalyst for today's gold sell off as some are trying to make it appear) as part of its bailout expansion by 35%, (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-11/cyprus-bailout-size-increases-35-one-month-%E2%82%AC23-billion-120-gdp)Cyprus announced, then refuted (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-11/cyprus-denies-gold-sale), then re-admitted, it would need to fund a portion of the incremental €7 billion in cash demands by selling €400 million, or nearly all 13.9 tons, of its central bank gold. Today, we learn that this demand came from none other than the head of the ECB Mario Draghi. Bloomberg reports: "European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the profits of any gold sales by the Cypriot central bank must be used to cover losses it may sustain from emergency loans to Cypriot commercial banks."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-12/mario-draghi-orders-cyprus-sell-gold-cover-bailout-shortfall

[gunDriller]

i wonder what their price goal is for today.

i'm thinking $1480 Gold & $26 Silver, meaning a dip into $147x & $25.yz territory, then a tiny rebound.

it seems like they're trying to go into the weekend with as low a price as possible, i.e. to stomp on any attempt at a rebound before markets close at 5:15 Eastern.

from the most recent Maguire interview, the initial waterfall down in Gold involved the sale of 500 paper tons - and that was hours ago.

they must have sold more Paper metals since then.

[osoab]

To the wood shed.

http://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=GC&cot=088691&p=m5

http://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=SI&cot=084691&p=m5

[Libertarian_Guard]

Paper trumps metal.

[gunDriller]

i remember several of their slams, where they hammered it into the close, and the price didn't climb back, indicating an all-day long full-court press.


also the December 2011 - January 2012 manipulation, i think they did this at least once - chased the price down, into the close, so that the lowest price was near or at the end of the trading day Friday.


but i would have to say that this is the most impressive manipulation i have seen in quite some time. i remember other 5% down days - but i could swear this one "took the cake".


that one, coupled with the psy-ops apparently being wrought upon Gold industry people, like Jim Sinclair, who is apparently being spammed relentlessly with anti-Gold, bear market BS ... Gosh Darn, you know, it seems like they're desperate.

there's an urgency to the manipulation this time.


since manipulation is part of the Strong Dollar Policy currency manipulation, and also connected to geo-political events, i wonder if today's relentless psycho push against the free market, bespeaks something "crawling under the carpet."

the Cartel knows that when the US gov. attacks Iran, oil prices will jump up markedly, most likely taking Gold with it. which would be very expensive for the Massive short positions of the Cartel.

[Glass]

Paper trumps metal.

Depends what metal but in markets, agreed. For as long as they want it to.

[steyr_m]

Mario Draghi Orders Cyprus To Sell Gold To Cover Bailout "Shortfall"


The Germans, in a back-room sigh of relief, know their gold is getting closer. Ever wonder why they agreed to have it all delivered by what -- 2020?

[Sparky]

OK, this is a plot of the GLD, which maps 1/10 the spot gold price, comparing the 2008 plunge with the current situation. The scaling on the vertical and horizontal (time) axes are the same.

Timing-wise, today's cliff dive was halfway between the last two bottoms of 2008, i.e. Sept and October. Today was very high volume which is analogous to the Sept 2008 volume. However, the severity of today's spike down matched the October 2008 bottom.

So if the two periods are analogous, it points to two possible scenarios looking forward:

1) Today's high-volume plunge will be followed by a rapid $200 rise over then next two weeks, followed by a second plunge to the final bottom of around $1350 some time in June.
2) Today's severe spike was the one that cleaned house and worst is now behind us.

However, history does not repeat, it rhymes. So I'm going to offer a hybrid scenario that includes less of a rebound, and less of a follow-up plunge. This would imply a 2-4 week rebound perhaps back to near $1600 in May, then a final move down in June-July to the .382 Fib retracement level of $1447 which will finally end this prolonged consolidation and mark the beginning of the next sustained leg up above the $1921 record high.

4693

[gunDriller]

The Germans, in a back-room sigh of relief, know their gold is getting closer. Ever wonder why they agreed to have it all delivered by what -- 2020?

"Es ist mein gold, Gott verdammt noch mal !"

[mamboni]

Superb interview with Andrew McGuire who explains the paper gold trading market, the involvement of the bullion banks acting as agents of the FED, and reactive massive physical bullion purchases by Asia in reaction to this engineered price drop:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/4/13_Andrew_Maguire.html

[gunDriller]

Superb interview with Andrew McGuire who explains the paper gold trading market, the involvement of the bullion banks acting as agents of the FED, and reactive massive physical bullion purchases by Asia in reaction to this engineered price drop:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/4/13_Andrew_Maguire.html

be great to hear the follow-up webcast. that one was released about halfway through the trading day.


the action seemed desperate. Herculean efforts and all that.


Would the Cartel throw the kitchen sink at the market Friday and not continue spending the money to Manipulate on Monday ?

It looks like the ability to print INFINITE (well, astronomical at least) amounts of money does make it easier to build massive naked short positions.

I wonder how much it costs the US government to conduct raids like occurred yesterday. I guess it's related to metal prices, e.g. if Silver went to $50 the game would fall apart, JPMorgan would find themselves in default and / or eating un-manageable losses.

But with Silver in the $25 to $30 range, then the massive short positions are easily resolved ?

[mamboni]

How the Gold Market was Crashed

There’s been a recent huge draw down of physical gold at the New York COMEX and at the JP Morgan Chase depository. Look at the physical market draw down on the charts below. It has taken a drastic plunge.

HOUSTON -- we have a problem.

Physical inventory drawdown at JPM


Charts by Nick Laird of www.sharelynx.com (http://www.sharelynx.com/)

http://goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2013/April/Gold/GoldInventoryJPMAPril2013.gif



Physical Drawdown at COMEX


Charts by Nick Laird of www.sharelynx.com (http://www.sharelynx.com/)



http://goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2013/April/Gold/GoldInventoryComexApr2013.gif



You can imagine the dilemma this is causing for the market interests behind these inventories. If the inventory runs out and one cannot meet deliveries then it has to be bought on the open market. Not only that but it could cause a run up in prices that would hurt the shorts in the market.

So what to do?

There is only one way out of this for the market controllers would be to devise a plan that would collapse the market and trip up all the stops at the correction lows in gold of 1525 thereby setting off the stop loss orders under this important market low. And what if the plan included a way to stop the physical market from purchasing gold under 1525 while that correction was underway?


And how can that happen?

They have to hatch out a plan and carefully orchestrate it in a series of events that takes the gold market by surprise and force the players out of their positions.

Read on for today’s lesson in market manipulation and allow me to relay my speculation about what transpired last week.

A successful ambush usually involves surprise.

One of the main new weapons in the FEDS arsenal is TRANSPARENCY.

After a lifetime of silence the FED all of a sudden has come out of the closet and has decided that the best thing for the market is to be transparent and to that end they now have televised communication meetings with the general public so chairman Bernanke can explain the FED policy and answer any questions that the market has on its mind as well as the usual minutes that get released to the markets that review the policy decisions and discussion of prior meetings.

Why does the Fed need to explain what they are doing now?

Well it isn’t because everything is going just fine. Put it this way. They must figure when you have 50 million people on food stamps and the Dow Jones is going up a few hundred points a week and making all time highs and you have 16 trillion dollars in debt and interest rates are zero, its best to have a communiqué every month before someone asks you to explain what is going on. It’s called staying ahead of the curve if you will. If you tell them what’s going on it makes it look like you know what you’re doing. Otherwise all we have is the statistics and by themselves they tell you something is wrong, something is terribly wrong. So they have become transparent.

During the last communiqué the chairman made it abundantly clear that QE was here to stay until the unemployment rate reached acceptable levels. This communiqué whether by personal appearance or by releasing the FOMC minutes of the prior meeting is something the FED relies on so market participants can remain comfortable and abreast of Fed monetary policy.

Three strikes and you’re out

The FOMC minutes from the last meeting were due for release during last week. But a funny thing happened. They got released EARLIER than expected. It was all a big mistake and the FED let the SEC and the CFTC know right away that the error had occurred. And lo and behold even with all its transparency there happened to be some language we didn’t get updated on until the FOMC minutes were released. The notes say that several members have been discussing cutting back on the stimulus. That was strike one. It got the gold market thinking that stimulus cuts might be coming.

Strike one

Surprise number two

Then a bombshell was released from news sources. It was reported that Cyprus would have to sell 400 million Euro’s of gold as part of the bailout package of raising money for their failed banking system. Gold prices came down to 1550 on the news and the day passed by. Even though Cyprus bankers tell us the next day that they didn't discuss selling any gold, market jitters seemed to remain and Friday was just around the corner. This was strike two.

Now we need a strike three and you’re out. Gold is a nervous market to begin with as a lot of people have already lost a lot of money in the last six months.
With Gold at 1550, all that is needed for the market to drop is to get one more push where all the stops are (just below the 2 year low of 1525).

The selling began in the Friday sessions overseas. By time we got to the New York COMEX gold open, the price was down to 1542. Now all the players are there and the volume and liquidity is there to create the final blow to the market.

And then the attack began. Wave after wave of selling until gold got to 1525. Then they break down the price below the two year low and all the stops that have been accumulating there start getting tripped up and the selling accelerates as it begins to feed on itself. The physical market for gold sees this as a gift and gets ready to make their move and buy up the gold.

Now comes the part that is pure genius or a total coincidental thing that just so happens to be a gift to those who are short the market and those who would be responsible to deliver gold should the inventory deplete.

ALL OF A SUDDEN THE LONDON PHYSICAL PLATFORM THAT BUYS AND SELLS PHYSICAL GOLD GETS LOCKED UP. THE SYSTEM FREEZES.

The screens all freeze.

What does that mean?

No one can get to the physical market to buy at these low prices but at the same time, they can’t sell or protect their position either. The system is frozen. Yes, just like at Bit-coin. The system locks up. And of course the results are going to be the same, just on a lower percentage level.

What can the physical holders do?

Meanwhile the futures market continues to drop.

So what happens? The physical market holders begin to panic. How can they protect themselves as they can’t sell either?

What would I do if I were in that situation?

There is only one solution, especially during a panic. Short and ask questions later.

Therefore it is my speculation that based on 350,000 contracts sold on Friday and the massive drop, some of those contracts was the physical market having no choice but to enter into the futures markets and in order to hedge their physical position holdings, sell contracts or short the market. It’s either that or wait until Monday and be subject to potentially heavy losses should margin calls go out over the weekend. With no time to think and survival instinct kicking in, the physical holders most likely did what they could to protect themselves. They went in and shorted the futures market.

From there the market goes into a free fall as the physical market can’t buy at these low prices because the computer system is down; they can only sell futures to hedge their long physical holdings and so they do what they have to and begin selling futures.

Now it gets worse. As the price drops even more, underfunded players are getting wiped out and now they begin to liquidate. The market goes into a total collapse as all the stops below 1500 get tripped up and the market tanks to 1490.

The market finally closes in New York and returns to the 1500 area.

But it’s not over. There's another situation going on. The weekend is arriving and players begin wondering about margin calls? How are holders going to get money to their brokers over the weekend for the Monday trade session?
But there is not enough liquidity as the COMEX has closed and only the aftermarket GLOBEX is there to execute trades.

But guess what folks?

The banks and brokers are open all weekend and as long as it takes to go through all the accounts and issue all the MARGIN calls.

If they get the margin calls out by Saturday, the customers have 24 hours to get more money to their brokers. If the money is not received by Sunday night or Monday morning, the positions will have to be liquidated, just when the market is at its lowest liquidity and the longs have had all weekend to think about it and the media has had time to tell everyone that the bull market in gold is over.

Not only that but the shorts know exactly what is about to transpire.

I hope you got the picture on how the control boyz forced a major sell off. I speculate the panic over low gold inventory had someone hatch a plan to save their accounts and a lot that is at stake.

They started with leaked information with explosive potential changes in USA policy, and then they published information that Europe/Cyprus would have to sell 400 million Euro's of physical gold. Finally once the sell off began the physical gold market platform in London locks up and no one has buy or sell access in the physical spot market.

As the market players begin to work this out in their mind there is only one thing left to do. Try and exit and get out in the Globex market. So the selling begins again. The market hits below 1500 and then 1490 get broken. The market sells as much as it can up until the very last minute of trade at 5PM New York time. Even then it’s not over. For some reason the volume and the price keeps moving. Was there special consideration going on for those connected who wanted out? I don't know. But at 5:07 PM Eastern standard time the market closes at 352,248 contracts and a price of 1476.10 down a whopping 5.67% -88.80 dollars.

Did the control boys lock down the physical market platform or was it pure coincidence? Either way they have total plausible deniability. HOW?

The computer system went down. It couldn’t handle the traffic and it shut down or a glitch happened in the server. It can be any one of many reasons.

This exact same thing happened during the last take down of gold in late December 2011.

VOILA. The perfect excuse and the perfect scenario.

The physical markets couldn’t buy at those low prices.
Let me repeat that. The physical markets couldn’t buy. They could only sell futures to hedge their physical gold positions.

Of course this will all be reported on the news and in the financials right?

Wrong.

None of it will be reported as none of it was reported on Dec 29th, 2011 when the control boyz did the same thing and locked out the computer and left the physical market holding the bag. Not one word hit the papers.

Most people are not even aware that the physical market is run by computers. They have never considered or thought about how the physical market works and executes. Guess what folks? It works the same way as Futures via computers and programs.

How do you think it works? Did you think that people show up with all their gold at an auction house and buying and bidding goes on with a mediator who can speak two hundred words a minute and gold is auctioned off like rugs or art?

No it runs off a computer system.

How do I know all of this happened today?

Because I was in direct contact with a big physical dealer out of the mid-east as it was happening. They have taken the time to explain the physical market and how they get SHUT out of the game --- just like they did during the last panic (and physical shortage) in Dec of 2011.

Here is the screen shot of the actual physical market in action from January 4th 2012 that the physical trader sent me.


http://goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2013/April/Trade/PLATFORM.gif

That completes our lesson for today on how to force a major sell off. You start the ball rolling with disinformation and early leaks and surprise with potential policy change considerations at the Federal Reserve level and you follow it up with a potential huge gold supply story that could come to the market.

You've shaken up the market and the selling begins and gets to within 20 dollars of two year lows where all the stops are and then you bring it down to where all the stops start getting tripped up and you just sit back and watch the market do the rest. Finally, you shut off the physical system and stop gold buying and at the same time you force physical dealers to sell the futures to hedge themselves.

There's even a term for this in the trading world. It's called "Beat the Beehive." You smash the nest and then watch the total confusion feed on itself. By the next day all the bees are gone and all that's left is a smashed up beehive.

There has been a lot of speculation on the markets and manipulation that is going on. What I've offered in this report using the fact that gold crashed on Friday is a scenario on how it could have been orchestrated. I leave it to the reader to pass judgment on the potential.

At 8:33 AM Friday morning with gold just beginning to trade, GoldTrends listed a potential for $1490 on twitter if $1525 was taken out. Here is the chart of the COMEX session. Note the low. That blue channel line was what we based our projection potential on. The rest as they say is history.


http://goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2013/April/Trade/GolHrly12AprIntra1.gif

What Next?

I will be assessing the damage over the weekend.

If there really is a shortage then there will be clues that should show up that should show up in the physical markets. We will be on the watch for them if they develop. If we see these clues we will advise subscribers as they develop. The last system lock out was on December 29, 2011. The clues showed up then and a 270 dollar rally took place from 1525 to 1795 by February 29th. Interestingly on Feb 29th, gold fell 100 dollars an ounce on a Bernanke announcement that the Fed was considering slowing down on QE.

Let me say this. IF the Feds were to slow down on QE the entire system would collapse in a major deflationary spiral. In a speech two months ago at a college Mr. Bernanke admitted that the FED always tries to "talk" control or what they want to see happen. When that doesn't work they expand to other more important methods of policy.

There are only two things that can bring gold down. A manipulated event like we just saw or a liquidity squeeze like we saw in 2008 where an immediate need for cash forced the liquidation of all assets. Can it happen again? Yes, but this time it would be on a global scale and much more powerful than the Lehman crisis of 2008. While many think a sovereign default would create an inflationary spiral, it’s the opposite could happen. A default would result in liquidation and 99 cents out of every dollar in the banking system has been lent out. The need for cold hard cash would be enormous and the only way to get it to avoid leverage margin calls would be to sell assets at a low enough price to attract immediate cash. That is what happened in 2008. With one penny in banks and 99 cents of debt a spiral the other way could develop.

But you say the FEDS could print the money. Would they have time?

Once a deflationary collapse takes place, then a HYPER INFLATIONARY event can take place. But this is all for another report.

Stay tuned as it's probably going to get real interesting.

We are now at a critical juncture in gold’s 21st century bull market. At www.GoldTrends.net (http://www.GoldTrends.net) we monitor the price patterns on an hourly, daily, weekly and monthly basis. We offer commentary on what it all means along with support and resistance levels along the way in advance of each day’s trade. If you would like to join us for 30 days we offer a free trial. Visit our website home page for details. We’d like you to join us and try us out.


May you all prosper,
Bill Downey



Bill Downey (Goldtrends@gmail.com)
http://www.goldtrends.net/ (http://gold-silver.us/)

[Sparky]

You don't hear much talked about the 20-month gold bear that occurred inside the 1970s gold bull. I remember writing about this a few years ago, saying that a similar occurrence during this bull would probably signal the final viscous shakeout of weak hands. And now here we are 19 months into a grinding consolidation, 23% off the high, and licking our wounds after a brutal $84 one-day smack-down.

Here's a log scale chart of what happened in the 1970s:

4702


Now here's a look at the bottom, which occurred in Summer 1976:


http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au1976.gif

Notice the brutal spike down that occurred around July 18. That was followed by a few weeks of recovery, leading up to the final gut-wrenching bottom in late August. This is similar to what happened in Sept and Oct 2008, which I described in Post #294.

So let's see if history is about to rhyme once again. If so, it's time to batten down the hatches and hang on for the wild ride that's coming over the next few months. Hopefully, after the dust settles, the GSUS stackers will emerge on Labor Day with their metals intact.

[mamboni]

You don't hear much talked about the 20-month gold bear that occurred inside the 1970s gold bull. I remember writing about this a few years ago, saying that a similar occurrence during this bull would probably signal the final viscous shakeout of weak hands. And now here we are 19 months into a grinding consolidation, 23% off the high, and licking our wounds after a brutal $84 one-day smack-down.

Here's a log scale chart of what happened in the 1970s:

4702


Now here's a look at the bottom, which occurred in Summer 1976:


http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au1976.gif

Notice the brutal spike down that occurred around July 18. That was followed by a few weeks of recovery, leading up to the final gut-wrenching bottom in late August. This is similar to what happened in Sept and Oct 2008, which I described in Post #294.

So let's see if history is about to rhyme once again. If so, it's time to batten down the hatches and hang on for the wild ride that's coming over the next few months. Hopefully, after the dust settles, the GSUS stackers will emerge on Labor Day with their metals intact.

Excellent post Sparky! If it was easy to make money investing, everyone could do it. It is not easy, because there are cruel tests, like bear runs within bull runs that test your courage. Only someone who truly understands the asset and appreciates it's value relative to all else can withstand the vicious corrections that send lesser investors running for the perceived safety of cash.

[Neuro]

Damn, we are as low as the all-time high in April 2011...

http://charts.kitco.com/KitcoCharts/?Symbol=GOLD&Currency=USD&multiCurrency=true&langId=EN&period=2329200000&names=,LFGOLDAM,LFGOLDPM&descs=,Gold%20%20London%20Fix%20AM,Gold%20%20Londo n%20Fix%20PM&byValue=true&utm_source=kitco&utm_medium=banner&utm_content=20110407_iCharts_1825day_gold_chart&utm_campaign=iCharts

Soon time to start panic selling... Sure it is depressing right now, and it might go down a fair bit from here, or it might turn soon, but I wouldn't give the cartel my gold at these prices, hang in there, this smack down is a great buying opportunity, possibly as Sparky alluded to we may get the best prices in the summer... Bull riding is difficult!

[mamboni]

Gold Trader: “Expect Margin Calls Monday Morning As Big Players Do Whatever It Takes To Get Physical Metal”


April 14, 2013 | By Tekoa Da Silva

"Following Friday’s panic sell-off in gold, one of the world’s top gold traders and recent interview guest, Gary Savage, shared some powerful commentary on what the smart money is doing in the market right now.


Gary said, ”Let me be clear. Just because we got a max ‘Blees’ rating and a large ‘Buying On Weakness’ (BoW) number Friday doesn’t mean the bottom [actually] occurred [on] Friday. It almost certainly didn’t. Margin calls are going out Monday morning [which] is probably going to continue the selling at least into the first hour or two, and it could continue until options expiration, although I doubt we have anything like what we saw on Friday ahead of us. That was a stop-run, and there were obviously a whole lot of stops [hit] below $1523.


That being said I think the [large] BoW number is a clue that this was a manufactured event, and as such it means there are big players that want into the market. They want in because they know [where] the market is going. Of course there’s no way to know for sure unless you are the party or parties that created the [selling] event, [but] only they know for sure if the support was breached intentionally.


Because of the BoW, COT levels and duration of the intermediate and yearly cycle I believe this was a staged event. I’ve been through dozens of these yearly cycle lows in my career, I know how they go. I said weeks and months ago that almost no one would make it through [this bottom]. That [comment] wasn’t meant to be snide, I’ve just seen enough of these to know that technicals get broken during yearly cycle lows and [it] almost always knocks out the majority of traders.
This is just what happens during a yearly cycle low. This one in gold is exceptionally frustrating because it’s been manufactured and artificial. A normal rising intermediate cycle that should have tested $1900 was aborted and turned into a failed cycle. In my opinion [it was] probably [staged] by central banks in Germany, China, Russia, etc. to create a selling panic and bring physical into the market.


When Bernanke fired his next shot into the currency wars…with QE3 & QE4, it forced other countries to take action also to maintain currency crosses. Unlike our clueless Federal Reserve, there are plenty of people in the world that understand how this is going to end, and the role gold is going to play in the end game. Those players don’t care about the current price of gold in US dollars. All they care about is getting their hands on the actual physical metal, and they will do whatever necessary to accomplish that goal [in] preparation for the end game.


So if you are holding, don’t freak out on Monday morning if gold is down again. It almost certainly will be. But if this was an artificial event, and I’m confident it was, then once it’s finished gold is going much, much higher. The big players that created the event don’t do so to sit in a stagnate market. They do so because they know the manipulation has ended and there are big gains ahead as the secular trends resume with a vengeance.”

http://bullmarketthinking.com/gold-trader-expect-margin-calls-monday-mor... (http://bullmarketthinking.com/gold-trader-expect-margin-calls-monday-morning-as-big-players-do-whatever-it-takes-to-get-physical-metal/)

[Sparky]

Yow, another $40 sliced off the top with the Asian open. Plunged below the $1447 Fib retracement, but then quickly rebounded to about that level.

What's below $1447? The 33% off the top that occurred in 2008 would put it at $1350. The 50% Fib retracement is $1300.

[Sparky]

You don't hear much talked about the 20-month gold bear that occurred inside the 1970s gold bull. I remember writing about this a few years ago, saying that a similar occurrence during this bull would probably signal the final viscous shakeout of weak hands. And now here we are 19 months into a grinding consolidation, 23% off the high, and licking our wounds after a brutal $84 one-day smack-down.

Here's a log scale chart of what happened in the 1970s:

4702


Now here's a look at the bottom, which occurred in Summer 1976:


http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au1976.gif

Notice the brutal spike down that occurred around July 18. That was followed by a few weeks of recovery, leading up to the final gut-wrenching bottom in late August. This is similar to what happened in Sept and Oct 2008, which I described in Post #294.

So let's see if history is about to rhyme once again. If so, it's time to batten down the hatches and hang on for the wild ride that's coming over the next few months. Hopefully, after the dust settles, the GSUS stackers will emerge on Labor Day with their metals intact.

FYI, the treacherous drop from Dec 1974 to Aug 1976, was nearly 50%, from $195 to $104. That would be the equivalent of going to $1000 now.

[osoab]

Yow, another $40 sliced off the top with the Asian open. Plunged below the $1447 Fib retracement, but then quickly rebounded to about that level.

What's below $1447? The 33% off the top that occurred in 2008 would put it at $1350. The 50% Fib retracement is $1300.


You got a link to the fib charts Sparky?

[madfranks]

I don't remember the last time we saw a $100 down day in gold.

[Son-of-Liberty]

I wonder how much it costs the US government to conduct raids like occurred yesterday. I guess it's related to metal prices, e.g. if Silver went to $50 the game would fall apart, JPMorgan would find themselves in default and / or eating un-manageable losses.


Probably not much. The naked shorters will cover their positions when the general investor capitulates, which hopefully is soon. Then these fuckers go long and make money on the way back up. They are profiting both ways but yeah the US treasury is going to back them if they make a mistake.

[gunDriller]

do you think they will stop at 3 PM Eastern time and say, "OK, that's enough" ... or will they grind it into the close @ 5:15 ?

i think they will grind it into the close.

and try to get down to $23 for Ag by closing time.


i think of the personality of the Cartel as being manic, like a (meth) tweaker.

a Tweaker with a big budget. government endorsed tweaker too.

[mamboni]

do you think they will stop at 3 PM Eastern time and say, "OK, that's enough" ... or will they grind it into the close @ 5:15 ?

i think they will grind it into the close.

and try to get down to $23 for Ag by closing time.


i think of the personality of the Cartel as being manic, like a (meth) tweaker.

a Tweaker with a big budget. government endorsed tweaker too.

At this point they are beating on a bloody corpse. Silver and gold look like Rocky Balboa in the 15th round of Rocky V. BTW, I've been watching SAE sales on Ebay and I sense something strange: the single coin sale prices bottomed at $31-32 and now I'm seeing prices for common date SAEs rising above $33-35 even as spot continues to free fall. We're talking $10 premia for physical, albeit SAEs. Maybe the customers have been shut out of the online bullion dealers and are running to Ebay for their silver?

[mamboni]

I don't remember the last time we saw a $100 down day in gold.

I think this is a first.

[osoab]

What happens in Asia tonight? China upped their margins...

[gunDriller]

I think this is a first.

the Cartel is just trying to make sure we don't get to a position where we could have $100 down days in Silver.

[Neuro]

At this point they are beating on a bloody corpse. Silver and gold look like Rocky Balboa in the 15th round of Rocky V. BTW, I've been watching SAE sales on Ebay and I sense something strange: the single coin sale prices bottomed at $31-32 and now I'm seeing prices for common date SAEs rising above $33-35 even as spot continues to free fall. We're talking $10 premia for physical, albeit SAEs. Maybe the customers have been shut out of the online bullion dealers and are running to Ebay for their silver?
That is certainly a possibility...

[Neuro]

I don't remember the last time we saw a $100 down day in gold.
There was a $100 up day in 2009, but I can't remember any $100 down days...

[mamboni]

the Cartel is just trying to make sure we don't get to a position where we could have $100 down days in Silver.

Yes!

[mamboni]

Jim Willie explains it all:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c5rZlkoDZKQ&feature=player_embedded

[JohnQPublic]

Interesting comment on Zerohedge: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-15/obama-addresses-nation

new WhiteNight123129 (http://www.zerohedge.com/users/whitenight123129) http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/pictures/picture-72818.jpg (http://www.zerohedge.com/users/whitenight123129)

Vote up!
(http://www.zerohedge.com/vote/comment/3453320/1/vote/upanddown/10e76e734c3d6fa690da1fc3c84827df) 1
Vote down!
(http://www.zerohedge.com/vote/comment/3453320/-1/vote/upanddown/c07c75bb0c2c8215e1444c47d39c663e) 0


HERE IS WHY GOLD HAS TO GO LOWER: JAPAN The Gold price has risen in Japan even before the attempt to debase the currency. If Gold were to spike in Yen terms, it would have triggered a panic buying of Gold in Japan and central banks do not want that. SO: WE SHOULD HAVE FIGURED THIS OUT!! I THINK SOROS AND GARTMAN AND OTHERS WERE FIGURING THIS OUT. There is no meltdown is soft commodities as we speak, it is just to avoid a disorderly price of Gold coming from the Japanese public.

[osoab]

To follow China and add insult to injury...

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/pictures/picture-5.jpg (http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden)
CME Hikes Gold, Silver Margins By 18.5% (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-15/cme-hikes-gold-silver-margins-185)Submitted by Tyler Durden (http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden) on 04/15/2013 - 18:29 Anyone surprised, please raise your hands. And yes, it was fun when margin were hiked only on surges in the various futures contracts. Now, dumps works just as well. The logic, of course, is that gold shorts are also margined. However, judging by the immediate $15 drop in gold upon the announcement, those who are short the metals certainly have a much, much bigger balance sheet and cash hoard to satisfy any collateral requirements than those long it. And now, expect the Shanghai Gold Exchange to hike margins in a few short hours next.

[Jersey Thursday]

Jim Willie explains it all:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c5rZlkoDZKQ&feature=player_embedded


He keeps saying this is the separation between physical price and digital/paper price.
Here is the current prices at Colorado Gold. How aren't these in line with the current spot price?

[mamboni]

He keeps saying this is the separation between physical price and digital/paper price.
Here is the current prices at Colorado Gold. How aren't these in line with the current spot price?

Yes, if Provident can deliver physical at those prices. Have you called them to ask?

[Sparky]

OK, returning to the analogies in 1976 and 2008.

The ultimate lows both occurred 6 weeks after the high volume interim low. If history were to rhyme, that would put us into the last week of June. Historically, the seasonal cycle for gold price is the first week of July.

In both cases, the intervening rally peaked at roughly one month after the high volume low. That would be mid-May. What's different in the two cases is the magnitude of the rebound. In 1976 it was about 7%. In 2008, it was a whopping 21%. The analogy here would be a rebound to anywhere between $1400 to $1600, which is quite a broad range.

To summarize:

High Volume Low: $1321 on April 15.
Intervening Rally: $1400-$1600 peaking in mid-May.
Consolidation Bottom: Late June $1250-$1300.

Let's see if this plays out.

[Sparky]

Edited to make correction of dates (in red):


OK, returning to the analogies in 1976 and 2008.

The ultimate lows both occurred 6 weeks after the high volume interim low. If history were to rhyme, that would put us into the last week of May. Historically, the seasonal cycle for gold price is the first week of July.

In both cases, the intervening rally peaked at roughly one month after the high volume low. That would be mid-May. What's different in the two cases is the magnitude of the rebound. In 1976 it was about 7%. In 2008, it was a whopping 21%. The analogy here would be a rebound to anywhere between $1400 to $1600, which is quite a broad range.

To summarize:

High Volume Low: $1321 on April 15.
Intervening Rally: $1400-$1600 peaking in mid-May.
Consolidation Bottom: Late May: $1250-$1300.

Let's see if this plays out.

[optionT]

Metals on the move down again.

ag 22.46 au 1342

[LuckyStrike]

These miners are getting slaughtered. We may be in line for another oil at 35$ moment (not with oil but PM's and miners) if that happens you will regret not backing up the truck.

At these prices pretty much all of them pay a higher dividend than 30 year treasuries, Barick at 4.5%, GORO at 8.5% the only risk I see is possibly bankruptcy if metals are in the gutter for many months, although I find that scenario to be quite unlikely. I think that until significant signs of inflation come to the surface metals may be subdued, however the money is there and ready to move throughout the economy, once velocity heats up I think instead of seeing normal bull market charts we will be seeing parabolic up moves.

[optionT]

How does the current sentiment compare to the destruction in the metals in 2008?

[Sparky]

How does the current sentiment compare to the destruction in the metals in 2008?

I'd say the sentiment is much more negative now than in 2008. Gold bears are not just far outnumbering gold bugs, they are outright mocking them. I don't recall that in 2008. Last time around, the gold price collapse was in synch with the initial stock market plunge, so it was viewed more as being swept into the general downdraft. This time the plunge began with the stock market still near record highs, so it is making for a much easier target for criticism.

[Steal]

OK, returning to the analogies in 1976 and 2008.

The ultimate lows both occurred 6 weeks after the high volume interim low. If history were to rhyme, that would put us into the last week of June. Historically, the seasonal cycle for gold price is the first week of July.

In both cases, the intervening rally peaked at roughly one month after the high volume low. That would be mid-May. What's different in the two cases is the magnitude of the rebound. In 1976 it was about 7%. In 2008, it was a whopping 21%. The analogy here would be a rebound to anywhere between $1400 to $1600, which is quite a broad range.

To summarize:

High Volume Low: $1321 on April 15.
Intervening Rally: $1400-$1600 peaking in mid-May.
Consolidation Bottom: Late June $1250-$1300.

Let's see if this plays out.

Awesome Sparky. Have been afk due to peak month of my business. Been trying to read , chart etc late night , took the weekend off. I have held back on jumping at the price smack down. I came up with a price of $1280ish for gold and average 70:1 ratio $18ish in silver early summer.

[ronTsilver]

You got it right.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/19_Sinclair_-_The_US_Will_Be_Cyprused_%26_We_Will_See_%2450%2C0 00_Gold.html

[mamboni]

Silver paper price battle rages at the COMEX while retail supplies of silver have gone all but totally dry.


Submitted by Turd Ferguson on April 19, 2013 - 4:18pm.
MODERATOR

REMEMBER, THIS SURVEY WAS TAKEN ON TUESDAY, AFTER THE MASSIVE 2-DAY BEATDOWN. FOR THE CoT WEEK, GOLD FELL $200 ON AN OI DROP OF 3,400 AND SILVER FELL $4.25 ON AN OI DROP OF 4,900.

Two main things:


Both the gold and silver LargeSpecs aggressively covered shorts. The gold LargeSpecs added net long 9,500 contracts. Even larger on a % of total OI basis, the silver LargeSpecs added net long 9,700.
But that's not the BIG NEWS. What is truly breathtaking is that the silver commercials who are long...and gross long at a record-breaking 60,000+ contracts...and which suffered incredible losses during the reporting week...and were subjected to Tuesday's margin hike...ACTUALLY ADDED MORE LONGS. THEY WERE NOT DEFEATED OR DISSUADED. THEY ARE STEADFAST.


GOLD
For the week, the LargeSpecs added 850 longs and covered 8,650 shorts. The SmallSpecs really got burned by the drop and also felt the sting of the margin hikes. They sold 7,150 longs and compounded their future issues by adding 4,250 shorts. Yikes! This allowed the Gold Cartel to not only cover 6,800 shorts, they also added 8,700 longs. (I would imagine that almost all of this Cartel activity took place on Monday.) The updated Cartel net short ratio is a still-bullish 1.98:1.

SILVER
Just as in gold, the silver Large Specs added 1,200 new longs while covering 8,500 shorts. Their updated net long ratio is 1.8:1. And the silver SmallSpecs were burned just like the gold SmallSpecs. They sold 3,100 longs and added 2,000 new shorts. Double Yikes!
And now check this out. As mentioned above, not only did the everybody-but-JPM crowd NOT sell last week, they actually BOUGHT! They increased their already record breaking gross long position by 581 contracts to 61,641. Incredible mainly because they are subject to the margin hikes, too. Not only did they not bail...they gave JPM the finger and bought more!


This forced JPM and their two pals to issue even more naked paper. For the week, they added 5,155 new shorts, bringing their total back up to 84,139. The new Silver Cartel net short ratio is still extremely bullish at 1.36:1.
Let me state this clearly:
THIS
IS
NOT
HOW
IT
IS
SUPPOSED
TO
WORK!!!!
On massive selloffs, whoever is long (be it the specs or some commercials) is supposed to sell. This allows JPM and their friends the ability to cover. This is how it has worked for time immemorial. Period. End of story. NOT THIS TIME! Silver fell over $4 (15+%) in two days and yet JPM had to ADD SHORTS?!?! Are you kidding me???
Fully consider this:




Think about all of the physical demand, the anecdotal supply shortage info, the pace of ASE sales and the wholesale disruptions after Monday's decline.
Think about the Pascua Luma and Kennecott mine "issues".
Will either of these "situations" be exacerbated or enhanced by another steep drop in price?
But yet, what must JPM now consider? They only have two choices and both of them are BAD.



Raid price again in the hopes that you can force the "other commercials" and specs to finally give up and sell. Into this selling you can finally cover your naked position. However, it would appear at the surface that an even-deeper discount will only worsen the already-tenuous physical supply situation.
Start covering your shorts, even if its at a loss. Hope that the other commercials sell into your buying (covering) so that price doesn't go screaming higher, out of control to the upside.


Look, I clearly need to spend some more thinking about this over the weekend. I look forward to reading what Uncle Ted has to say tomorrow. And I'll need to read Andy's Sunday Commentary for Army members. But, at first glance, this might be an historic CoT report in terms of its implications.
More later.

[Sparky]

...
To summarize:

High Volume Low: $1321 on April 15.
Intervening Rally: $1400-$1600 peaking in mid-May.
Consolidation Bottom: Late May: $1250-$1300.


I did a little day-by-day comparison to 1976 and 2008. For a near-perfect match, the details would look like this:

High Volume Low: $1321 on April 15.
Intervening Rally: $1400-$1600 peaking May 1-4. (Guessing $1500)
Consolidation/Capitulation Bottom: May 28-31: $1250-$1300.
Sustained breakout: Above $1500, August 1-7.

[Neuro]

I did a little day-by-day comparison to 1976 and 2008. For a near-perfect match, the details would look like this:

High Volume Low: $1321 on April 15.
Intervening Rally: $1400-$1600 peaking May 1-4. (Guessing $1500)
Consolidation/Capitulation Bottom: May 28-31: $1250-$1300.
Sustained breakout: Above $1500, August 1-7.
It will be interesting to see if this works out, my mum is interested to invest her savings in gold. I am going to recommend the late May purchase, but we'll see how it develops...

[Sparky]

I did a little day-by-day comparison to 1976 and 2008. For a near-perfect match, the details would look like this:

High Volume Low: $1321 on April 15.
Intervening Rally: $1400-$1600 peaking May 1-4. (Guessing $1500)
Consolidation/Capitulation Bottom: May 28-31: $1250-$1300.
Sustained breakout: Above $1500, August 1-7.

It didn't take very long to blow $1400 out of the water, so it still looks reasonable to keep our eyes on at least $1500 as an interim top. The vigor of this rebound is very encouraging. But keep in mind that this playbook still includes one last plunge to make this look like a sucker's rally. Those folks at Goldman are very clever.

[optionT]

Excellent analysis sparky!

[Steal]

at a present high today of $1,474.68.......this is getting interesting.

[gunDriller]

Yet Another Raid Day. (YaRD)

the Cartel reminds me of a child who keeps touching the stove, daring it to burn them.

eventually, they get burned, or worse

http://p.twimg.com/A36zaoqCIAAUgL1.jpg:large


except with Bankster Economy Management 101, it's not the bankster daring the Fire to burn him who gets his head blown off.

when it's time for someone to get burned, the Banksters hides behind Mommy's apron, and the General Public gets burned.

[mamboni]

Gold and silver just got smacked down hard at the European closing. The predictable Friday smackdown.

Fuck you Bernanke. Fuck you JPM. I just ordered more silver. You are doomed - the physical markets will bury you and your paper house of lies and leases.

[Sparky]

Not much of a raid. 1% drop after a 12% gain in 9 days.

Check this out. 1976, 2008, and 2013 gold price movement, put in synch to match the initial plunge date. Horizontal dates are from 2013 to project future timing.

4810

[Neuro]

Not much of a raid. 1% drop after a 12% gain in 9 days.

Check this out. 1976, 2008, and 2013 gold price movement, put in synch to match the initial plunge date. Horizontal dates are from 2013 to project future timing.

4810
Excellent chart Sparky. The low for 1976 was close to $100, so in about 4 years it gained about 700% from that to the high. If we'll get a similar development now with gold bottoming at around $1250, we would have gold at $10,000 an ounce in 2017, the price inflation in the late 70's was around 10% annually, which seems likely for the time going forward, so we might end up with $10,000 gold which is worth about $6000 in today's dollar... Silver would of course be a very interesting play, in 1980 it got down to a G/S ratio of around 16, which if repeated would give a silver price of $600 and in todays dollar value around $400/ounce a 20 bagger if silver hits $20!

[Sparky]

Excellent chart Sparky. The low for 1976 was close to $100, so in about 4 years it gained about 700% from that to the high. If we'll get a similar development now with gold bottoming at around $1250, we would have gold at $10,000 an ounce in 2017, the price inflation in the late 70's was around 10% annually, which seems likely for the time going forward, so we might end up with $10,000 gold which is worth about $6000 in today's dollar... Silver would of course be a very interesting play, in 1980 it got down to a G/S ratio of around 16, which if repeated would give a silver price of $600 and in todays dollar value around $400/ounce a 20 bagger if silver hits $20!

Thanks. I've been predicting a $3200 gold top since about $450. So I'm sticking with that for now. But I must say, that might be insufficient to accommodate the typical bull market structure ending in a blowoff top.

For fun, here's a real blowoff top, in log scale:

4817

We need to learn what bubbles really look like so that we'll recognize a gold bubble if we see it. Notice the last severe drop that went from about $2000 to below $1500. Sound familiar? Let's look at it in linear scale, so we can see how pronounced the bubble top is, above $5000:

4818

Now let's zoom in on that last dip, to see how the end of the bubble played out:

4819

So a gold bubble would probably have similar characteristics, and may also need to get to $5000 in order to accommodate the rapid blowoff at the end. So if I have to yield on my $3,200 guess for gold, I think somewhere around $5,000 would be my guess for a more dramatic top. Have you figured out what this bubble is yet? The dates are a hint. It's the Nasdaq.

[Sparky]

I did a little day-by-day comparison to 1976 and 2008. For a near-perfect match, the details would look like this:

High Volume Low: $1321 on April 15.
Intervening Rally: $1400-$1600 peaking May 1-4. (Guessing $1500)
Consolidation/Capitulation Bottom: May 28-31: $1250-$1300.
Sustained breakout: Above $1500, August 1-7.

Rally price peaked at $1488 on May 3. Today looks like we have decisively turned south for what could be the final plunge in this 20-month price consolidation, if this analogy is to remain intact.

[madfranks]

Bad time for those needing to sell...

[mamboni]

This is an excellent interview. Yeah I know it's KWN, but this is really good. This guy Kaye really spells out nicely how and why the FED and the bullion banks are massively manipulating the metals and how they are bluffing because they don't have the gold to deliver:

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/5/14_W... (http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/5/14_William_Kaye.html)

[gunDriller]

This is an excellent interview. Yeah I know it's KWN, but this is really good. This guy Kaye really spells out nicely how and why the FED and the bullion banks are massively manipulating the metals and how they are bluffing because they don't have the gold to deliver:

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/5/14_W... (http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/5/14_William_Kaye.html)

it works until there is no gold or silver left to rob.

from the sound of it, e.g. from Harvey Organ, there is almost no gold or silver left to rob.

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

but i hear Spain has 300 tons - which is kept in Madrid.


is this the part where the banksters force Spain into bankruptcy and then - at the last minute - say, "oh, we hear you have some gold you could use as collateral."

at present rates of consumption, though, that would only last another month.

[mamboni]

it works until there is no gold or silver left to rob.

from the sound of it, e.g. from Harvey Organ, there is almost no gold or silver left to rob.

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

but i hear Spain has 300 tons - which is kept in Madrid.


is this the part where the banksters force Spain into bankruptcy and then - at the last minute - say, "oh, we hear you have some gold you could use as collateral."

at present rates of consumption, though, that would only last another month.

I think the bullion banks have no where near the gold they claim and are bluffing at this point. The only ones in a position to call their bluff are the Chinese and Indian buyers. Apparently, India and Shanghai are not receiving the physical gold they've ordered. The bullion dealers are holding them off waiting for what? They need to shake out more physical gold from private holders at GLD or shake down another soveriegn. I wonder who's next in this great gold robbery caper.

[gunDriller]

I wonder who's next in this great gold robbery caper.

this may be the part where they go into the warehouse at Barrick and sweep up all the gold dust.

it's interesting that one of the primary silver suppliers at the retail level is Ohio Precious Metals - who does silver recycling.

i guess the Great PM Recycling Machine continues, even when the vaults have been cleaned out.

there's a guy at GoldRefiningForum.com named "Kadriver", who does recycling for a living. buys Sterling Silver & 14K gold, refines it, and sells the silver as .999 bars (gets a premium higher than Engelhard, too), and sells the refined Gold to refiners like NTR, where i think he gets 97% of spot, even though he refines to .995 or better.

it would take a lot of "Kadriver's" to keep the recycling pipeline supplied. AND - these low prices don't exactly tempt people to go looking through their attics for old silver to pawn.


i think today's price targets (for the Cartel raiders) are
Gold $1350
Silver $22


so i'm thinking, if someone REALLY wanted to find out how these guys operate, you would need to work inside the JP Morgan Bullion Bank.

https://careers.jpmorganchase.com/career/jpmc/careers/experienced/jpmorgan

"Investment Bank
Asset Management
Treasury & Securities Services
Global Corporate Bank "

those are the 4 choices. i think "asset management" means, managing money for rich people.

so, Precious Metals Manipulation would be done by a 'secret' group, possibly within "Treasury & Securities Services".

[mamboni]

i think today's price targets (for the Cartel raiders) are
Gold $1350
Silver $22


so i'm thinking, if someone REALLY wanted to find out how these guys operate, you would need to work inside the JP Morgan Bullion Bank.

https://careers.jpmorganchase.com/career/jpmc/careers/experienced/jpmorgan

"Investment Bank
Asset Management
Treasury & Securities Services
Global Corporate Bank "

those are the 4 choices. i think "asset management" means, managing money for rich people.

so, Precious Metals Manipulation would be done by a 'secret' group, possibly within "Treasury & Securities Services".

Gold and silver are selling for below the all-in costs of production. The central banks have succeeded in completely fucking up the price discovery mechanism and the economies.

[EE_]

Gold and silver are selling for below the all-in costs of production. The central banks have succeeded in completely fucking up the price discovery mechaniam and the economies.
Forget about these useless metals...the stock market is where the money is!

Wall Street has no moral conscience. No public values. Zero. Will never change. Why?
May 15th, 2013 By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch

Wall Street has no moral conscience. No public values. Zero. Will never change. Why? Wall Street insiders have one goal: get personally rich.

How? Wall Street gets rich by stealing money from America’s 95 million investors. Yes, they steal, skim, scam, siphon off your money, using the neurosciences that a decade ago promised to level the playing field for investors. But today it’s worse.

Too harsh? No. Vanguard’s Jack Bogle has been comparing Wall Street to Vegas for decades. He sees gambling casinos with a million “croupiers” manipulating Wall Street’s gaming tables 24/7, skimming a third of your returns off the top.

You can’t win. They get richer pocketing millions by betting against average Americans who work all day. Yes, the games are fixed. They have zero morals. The house always wins. Always.

And we should go easy on Wall Street? No, they are crooks, stealing your life savings, skimming, siphoning, scamming you. In his classic on neuroeconomics and brain science, “Thinking, Fast and Slow,” Nobel economist Daniel Kahneman uses similar gambling imagery: “50 years of research” proves the stock-picking skills of fund managers are “more like rolling dice than like playing poker.” Most underperform. The few winners rarely repeat.

Worse, Wall Street brain scientists — all the neuroeconomists, quants and behavioral-finance experts — all believe they’re “making sensible, educated guesses.” But they “are not more accurate than blind guesses,” says Kahneman. “This is true for nearly all stock pickers, whether they know it or not … and most do not.”

Get it? Wall Street insiders don’t even know they are not beating the market. They are in denial, lying to themselves and to you.

Brain science feeds Wall Street’s addiction, killing its moral conscience
Wall Street’s million insiders are so blinded by their addiction to getting richer they’ve lost their moral compass. They’re so deep in denial, so convinced they’re beating the market even when they’re not, that they must project the lies hidden deep in their brain’s dark shadows.

So they must manipulate data, hiding the truth from the outer world, lying in an endless barrage of PR material to the 95 million investors who are risking (and losing a third of) their hard-earned retirement money to the croupiers running the casinos.

Folks, behavioral science is not complicated. And the DNA guiding Wall Street’s brain is simple: Markets go up. Markets go down. Their DNA loves the action. And they know how to get rich in markets, up and down. Yes, the casino makes money skimming a third off the top … on the way up, and on the way down. And the house always wins. They pocket millions skimming a third off average Americans. Just ask Bogle.

But you already know all of this, right? Wrong. You forgot. Your brain’s on overload. Wall Street knows you’re vulnerable, takes advantage of you. Yes, all of today’s “smart technology” is just giving investors an illusion they’re smarter.

Wrong. Wall Street’s lying to us, transforming us into the dumbest investors in history. You even forget you’re being scammed, that Bogle and Kahneman are right: Wall Street is stealing a third of your money.

Wall Street’s decade-long brain-science “revolution” really has accelerated the investor’s worst nightmare, with broken promises, deceit and betrayal. This “new science of irrationality” is a combo scam/snow job/cover-up. Since 2002, Wall Street’s new neuroscience tools have failed America in six ways, with dire moral consequences:

1. Wall Street uses brain science to gain even more control of investors
Back in 2002 when Kahneman won the Nobel Prize in economics we had hopes for a level playing field. It’s worse today. Kahneman exposed Wall Street’s centuries-long myth of the “rational investor.” Gave us hope investors could change, hope the brain sciences would give investors new tools, new technologies, teach new behaviors, that Wall Street might even help.

Just the opposite. Casinos and their cohorts were the “first adapters” of neuroscience advances like high-frequency trading algorithms and investor profiling in marketing. Plus neuroscientists got paid big bucks to come work for Wall Street banks, Corporate America, for politicians … to manipulate investors, consumers, savers, voters and taxpayers.

2. Brain scientists keep investors predictably irrational for Wall Street
Kahneman proved investors have always been irrational. But note, he also proved investors brains will always be irrational. Always. So Wall Street can control our irrational brains using their high-tech neuroeconomic data, strategies and algorithms.

As University of Chicago Prof. Richard Thaler writes in “Advances in Behavioral Finance II”: Wall Street “needs investors who are irrational, woefully uninformed, endowed with strange preferences.”

Why? Wall Street’s a money machine generating hundreds of billions in fees, commissions, bonuses, options for insiders. Their casinos will always be one step ahead of you, monitoring your action, mapping, manipulating your behavior with algorithms that guarantee you can never beat the market with your perpetually irrational brain.

3. Brain scientists will never deliver on Kahneman’s promise in 2002
When Kahneman, a psychologist, won the Nobel Prize in economics, there was an implied promise that if investors, taxpayers, voters simply followed the advice of the new brain sciences, they would prosper because behavioral economists promised this new science would make you “less irrational,” in control, and a successful investor.

Get it? Yes, brain science would give all investors the right tools to become “less irrational,” and more successful investors … but that would obviously hurt Wall Street’s bottom line.

Sorry, but that will never happen. Never. Neuroeconomics is based on a false premise: That “irrational investors” can teach themselves to become “less irrational.” No way, the human brain is — and always will be — irrational, genetically “irrational,” and incapable of reprogramming itself. No can do.

And ironically, the more we learn about our irrational brains, the more we’re just kidding ourselves (with the help of the casino’s neuroscientists) into believing we’re in control, acting rationally. We’re not.

Remember, 88% of our behavior is driven by the subconscious, stuff we don’t grasp but quants control with their algorithms. So they can manipulate you into making irrational decisions. Amazing isn’t it: Your brain really is your worst enemy.

4. Brain scientists mislead investors, only help the super-rich get richer
In congressional testimony a few years ago, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan admitted that his capitalist ideology had failed America: “I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interests of organizations, specifically banks and others, were such as that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and their equity.” But there was a huge “flaw in the model … that defines how the world works.” Except nothing’s change.

Greenspan admitted: “Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholders’ equity, myself included, are in a state of shocked disbelief,” he told Congress. Unregulated markets “held sway for decades,” then “the whole intellectual edifice, however, collapsed.”

Capitalism failed because it lost its moral compass, and there was America’s long-term monetary head confessing his guilt. Unfortunately, it’s worse today.

5. Brain scientists are partisan mercenaries with political biases
Bloomberg BusinessWeek put it this way: All economists, including neuroeconomists, are political animals whose opinions are up for sale: “No surprise, the equilibrium school mainly leans Republican, and the interventionist school seems to be crawling with Democrats.”

In short, all economists are mercenaries for hire who can “prove” either ideology, prompting “Black Swan” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb to predict that the 2008 crash will happen again unless we “build a society that doesn’t depend on forecasts by idiotic economists.” We didn’t.

6. Brain-science books are useless self-help pop-psychology solutions
But investors keep asking: Aren’t there some of their books that will help investors become “less irrational?” Well, the promise of neuroscience is imbedded in all their books. And they’re by the best-of-the-best. But don’t be misled by the titles: “Blind Spots: Why Smart People Do Dumb Things”; “Blunder: Why Smart People Make Bad Decisions”; “Sway: The Irresistible Pull of Irrational Behavior”; “Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives”; “The Logic of Life: Rational Economics in an Irrational World”; “Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth and Happiness”; or “Predictably Irrational: Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions.”

Unfortunately, no book can ever teach investors how to make their brains “less irrational.” It’s impossible, because Wall Street’s brain scientists will always be way ahead of that illusion … constantly inventing new technologies, algorithms and marketing tools that’ll run circles around America’s 95 million “predictably irrational” investors.

So you can’t change. Only Wall Street can change … but won’t. They have no moral conscience. You should never expect Wall Street to give up its addiction to getting rich off others … at least till after the coming collapse, a market megacrash bigger than 1929, 2000 and 2008 combined.

So forget about making your brain “less irrational.” As Thaler put it, Wall Street “needs investors who are irrational, woefully uninformed” … and that’s you.

Paul B. Farrell is a MarketWatch columnist based in San Luis Obispo, Calif. Follow him on Twitter @MKTWFarrell.


Read more at http://investmentwatchblog.com/wall-street-has-no-moral-conscience-no-public-values-zero-will-never-change-why/#Bv8u4QMRIktzAvve.99

[gunDriller]

Forget about these useless metals...the stock market is where the money is!

i do notice myself thinking, "Hmmm, dividend paying stocks. if i bought dividend paying stocks, would i have more $$ ?"

but only for a few seconds at a time.


i don't think the PM price smash and the stock market run-up is 'just for the fun of it.'

i think these acts are part of a larger plan that involves geo-politics. the attack on Iran is a likely candidate.

[Sparky]

Updating chart from Post #337, showing only 2013 and 1976...

4908

[mamboni]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BKVQggACUAAt5jg.jpg:large

[Sparky]

mamboni, your chart is sourced to Bloomberg. Is there an accompanying article or text discussing the 1976 analogy?

[mamboni]

This is a really really superb video by Brother John with lots of meat and lots of facts. People - DO NOT SELL YOUR METALS INTO THIS MANUFACTURED PAPER CRASH OF THE PRICES! The physical demand for gold is on fire with no sign of abating. The MSM is lying to you. Kitco is lying to you. While these presstitutes for the central bankers publsih their twisted anti-gold headlines, the banksters are going long paper gold and Soros is now starting to buy the miners. These fucking crooks absolutely shameless and balck hearted. It's really quite unbelievable the level and pervasiveness of the corruption in the financial markets and the press in the USA today. Thank God that the peoples of India, China and other nations are buying gold hand over fist - they know, they know! After generations of getting screwed over by the bankers and despotic governments, they know! Gold is Money. We won't be fooled again!


http://www.youtube.com/user/brotherjohnf


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rp6-wG5LLqE

[mamboni]

mamboni, your chart is sourced to Bloomberg. Is there an accompanying article or text discussing the 1976 analogy?

I lifted off a twitter post.

[gunDriller]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BKVQggACUAAt5jg.jpg:large

was that completely pre-Cartel, or was there an equivalent of the HPM/HSBC PM price manipulation duo even back then ?

[Sparky]

An observation on this chart. This 1976 comparison indicates for a low to occur on the London daily fix price (11 AM EDT) on 5/20/13 (today). Amazing that today's run-up began at 11:30 EDT this morning after the new fix low was set at 11 AM. Although a few more weeks of descending prices are possible, the reversal today was so striking that we may have just established the long-term reversal low, and that all subsequent major interim highs and lows will form an ascending slope over the next one to three years.


Updating chart from Post #337, showing only 2013 and 1976...

4908

[mamboni]

was that completely pre-Cartel, or was there an equivalent of the HPM/HSBC PM price manipulation duo even back then ?

Supposedly, there was no price suppression by the paper traders back then. Volker reportedly lamented after the 1980 gold spike that it was "a mistake not to suppress the gold price." Who knows what really went down.

[SWRichmond]

The daily moves right now look to me like what an impending market failure look like. Desperation moves by the controllers, and the actual market trying, with increasing forcefulness, to exert itself. No way anyone should expect to be told any truth by any MSM, ever again, about the markets. PM prices falling, "leaders" begging the masses not to buy PMs, bullion bank defaults starting. This is EXACTLY what I expected it to look like. Next up: stock crash, to drive the prices of PMs lower and force what's left of capital into "safe" Treasuries once again. Then a nice global war to make everyone forget about why consumer goods are so damned expensive, why living standards suck so bad, why there is no gasoline to be had. It's the damned EastAsians! Just a slight ramp up, frankly, from where we are right now: constant war, just more nations involved. Russia into the Caucasus and Syria, China increasingly into Persian Gulf and PacRim and Africa, client state wars in Pakistan and Iran. And the central bankers will be printing money and lending it to make it all possible, plus interest. And it will all be borrowed in the taxpayers' name, and they will labor to pay it all.

[gunDriller]

"leaders" begging the masses not to buy PMs

that is wierd.

sort of like telling us where their weak point / Achilles Heel is.


on, No, i like <barf> this government, i would never attack their weak point ! /sarc

[mamboni]

No Bear Market In Gold — Paul Craig Roberts

May 20, 2013


You know that gold bear market that the financial press keeps touting? The one George Soros keeps proclaiming? Well, it is not there. The gold bear market is disinformation that is helping elites acquire the gold.

Certainly, Soros himself doesn’t believe it, as the 13-F release issued by the Securities and Exchange Commission on May 15 proves. George Soros has significantly increased his gold holding by purchasing $25.2 million of call options on the GDXJ Junior Gold Miners Index.

http://bullmarketthinking.com/soros-reports-over-239mm-in-gold-positions-buys-25mm-in-call-options-on-juniors/
(http://bullmarketthinking.com/soros-reports-over-239mm-in-gold-positions-buys-25mm-in-call-options-on-juniors/)

In addition the Soros Fund maintains a $32 million stake in individual mines; added 1.1 million shares of GDX (a gold miners ETF) to its holdings which now stand at 2,666,000 shares valued at $70,400,000; has 1,100,000 shares in GDXJ valued at $11,506,000; and 530,000 shares in the GLD gold fund valued at $69,467,000. [values as of May 17]


The 13-F release shows the Soros Fund with $239,200,000 in gold investments. If this is bearish sentiment, what would it take to be bullish?


The misinformation that Soros had sold his gold holdings came from misinterpreting the reason Soros’ holdings in the GLD gold trust declined. Soros did not sell the shares; he redeemed the paper claims for physical gold. Watching the gold ETFs, such as GLD, being looted by banksters, Soros cashed in some of his own paper gold for the real stuff.


More… (http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2013/05/20/no-bear-market-in-gold-paul-craig-roberts/)

[mamboni]

The new dichotomy of the physical investor buying while the paper investor is liquidating is a healthy sign for the gold market.


http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/the-commodity-investor/4822-the-commod... (http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/the-commodity-investor/4822-the-commodity-investor-physical-gold-market-feeding-off-paper-market-selling.html)

[gunDriller]

To Raid or Not to Raid ?

any gut feels or luminescent predictions about today's action, May 28 - Options Expiry day ?

at least i think it's options expiry, the market's been mostly closed since Friday May 24.


i don't feel terribly confident about it, but i wouldn't mind another dip to $21.

as long as i'm near my computer when it happens.

[mamboni]

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Huge Rally Fuel in Place for Gold Futures

HOUSTON -- Sometimes the data we gold analysts track tells a story that looks unbelievable in the current environment. That’s assuming we apply our usual analysis to it and ignore the flood of news flowing at us by the minute. By unbelievable we mean in an epic, potentially explosive sort of way.

A case in point is the positioning of the largest traders of gold futures on the COMEX bourse, which is what this short memo is about.

Looking first at a longer term chart of gold, with the HUI index of relatively larger miners thrown in, it would be difficult to make a bullish case based just on the signature showing today, Tuesday, May 28, 2013. Clearly both gold and mining shares have been in a cascade sell down so far this year.


http://treo.typepad.com/.a/6a0120a6002285970c0192aa70c829970d-500wi (http://treo.typepad.com/.a/6a0120a6002285970c0192aa70c829970d-popup)
Continued...


Contrarians will quickly point to the obvious – that gold is very strongly oversold on standard momentum indicators (RSI and MACD) and therefore overdue for a technical bounce. They might also point to the fact that the HUI has been driven so far down that it is currently at levels first reached in 2005 (eight years ago) when gold changed hands well under $500 the ounce. Both observations are accurate, but they don’t move markets by themselves. What can move markets is the action of the largest traders of gold futures. As long time members of the Got Gold Report know we track the positioning of the largest traders of futures through their reported positioning to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/commitmentsoftraders/index.htm) (CFTC) in weekly commitments of traders reports (COT).

Tracking the large trader positioning won’t tell us what they will do tomorrow, exactly, but when we compare large trader positioning today with similar periods in the past, we can gain at least some insight into what the largest, best funded and presumably the best informed traders of gold futures might do looking ahead.

Extreme Positioning in Gold Futures

We track and chart about a dozen different trader positions each for gold and silver, but today we will tell the story we are seeing using just a few of the graphs.

Only rarely do we see truly anomalous or extreme positioning in large trader positioning, but the positioning today certainly qualifies as both anomalous and extreme as we think you will agree.
Take, for example, the chart below, which tracks the positioning of the very large traders the CFTC classes as Producers, Merchants, Processors and Users – the natural hedgers of gold via futures. This category includes the largest bullion merchant/dealers, the refiners they buy from and who buy the rough gold from producers; as well as the producers themselves. It includes jewelry merchants and manufacturers, bullion management firms and it also includes the bullion banks that many of them end up trading through.


http://treo.typepad.com/.a/6a0120a6002285970c0192aa70ccc5970d-500wi (http://treo.typepad.com/.a/6a0120a6002285970c0192aa70ccc5970d-popup)

(Source, all COT charts: CFTC for COT, Cash Market for gold, GGR.)

Please note: The Producer/Merchants are always net short, so their positioning shows up as a negative number. So the higher the blue line on the graph the lower the actual net short positioning. The net position is simply the long contracts minus short contracts. Spreading contracts, which are simultaneous long and short contracts in different months, are ignored.
What is this graph telling us? Well, for one thing, the Producer/Merchant (PM) commercial traders of gold futures currently have a very, very low net short position for gold futures. Specifically, as of May 21, the PMs reported a net short position of 34,334 contracts in the futures-only COT report. That’s actually up 7,268 contracts from the prior week (May 14), when the PMs reported a tiny 27,066 contracts net short, the lowest PM net short position in the entire disaggregated commitments of traders report dataset (data begins in 2006).

The PMs are near a record low net short position. Hedgers are reluctant to put on hedges with gold in the $1,370s in other words. Let that sink in a moment.

While that is sinking in, below is another chart showing the positioning of the large speculative traders the CFTC calls Managed Money (MM) – hedge funds, commodity pool operators, commodity trading advisors and other large speculative funds who trade gold futures for clients.


http://treo.typepad.com/.a/6a0120a6002285970c019102a84e1e970c-500wi (http://treo.typepad.com/.a/6a0120a6002285970c019102a84e1e970c-popup)

As of May 21, the Spec Funds, or just the “Funds” as we sometimes call them, held just 36,358 COMEX 100 ounce contracts net long – the lowest MM net long position since June 26, 2007 (26,494 then with $642 gold).

So, on the one hand the Big Hedgers are at a near record low number of hedges at the same time the Funds are at 6-year low number of contracts net long.

Note please, that since last October there have been absolutely huge changes in the positioning of both classes of traders shown. On October 9, 2012, with gold then about $1,763, the Producer Merchants (first graph) held a very high 216,654 contracts net short. So as of May 21, as gold had corrected a big $387 or 22%, the Big Hedgers reduced their net short positioning by a whopping 182,320 contracts or 84%. (Gold -22%, PM net hedges -84%.)

On October 9, the Managed Money traders (second graph) held a quite high 167,473 contracts net long. By May 21 they had reduced their net long bets by a huge 131,115 contracts or 78% to just 36,358 contracts net long. (Gold -22%, MM net longs -78%.)

What is pretty clear is that as gold has corrected by a large 22% since October, the traders who use futures to (mostly) hedge against price declines in gold, the PMs, are now at an extremely low, near record low level of hedges, meaning with gold in the $1,370s they are not positioning like they believe gold has much downside left.

What is also pretty clear is that at the same time the speculative Funds – the traders we normally associate with the long side of gold futures – have gotten the heck out of their NET long positions in almost as big a way. Importantly, note the word “net” in that sentence. Because as it happens, the Funds really haven’t reduced their long contracts at all since January.
You read that right. The Funds held 111,076 long gold contracts on January 29. As of May 21 they held 113,088 long contracts. The Funds have not been selling off their long gold contracts, but they have been adding to their short contracts, and as the graph below shows, they have been adding shorts in a very big way.


http://treo.typepad.com/.a/6a0120a6002285970c0192aa70d613970d-500wi (http://treo.typepad.com/.a/6a0120a6002285970c0192aa70d613970d-popup)

As of May 21, Managed money traders reported holding a huge 76,730 short gold contracts, the highest in disaggregated commitments of traders history.

The very low NET long position now held by the Funds is not because they have sold off their long contracts. It is because they have added a record high number of short contracts.

It can be said that the Funds are momentum following traders without much of a dogmatic point of view on gold. Since October 9, when remember gold changed hands in the $1760s, as gold corrected $387 or 22%, the Funds increased their gross short contracts by 66,559 contracts or 650%, from 10,171 to 76,730 shorts. (Gold -22%, MM shorts +650%.) Hello!

Perhaps now one might have an inkling of why we have been saying that the COT reports have become “very imbalanced” and “dangerous for both sides of the battlefield.” On the one hand the largest hedgers of gold are positioned as though they see very little downside left, while on the other the Funds, while still net long gold, have put on their largest gross short position since the disaggregated data begins in 2006.

Simply put, as long as the price of gold continues to fall, the Funds seem determined to increase their short positioning. But by doing so, they are sowing the seeds of the next important rally for gold. There is no stronger or more powerful “fuel” for a gold rally than Spec Funds covering shorts. That’s when both sides of the battlefield are on the buy side and that is almost certainly exactly what is about to happen – once a catalyst emerges for gold.

When, not if, but when a bona fide reversal shows itself, the hedgers will more than likely add to their long contracts as some of the hedgers are hedging against higher gold prices. Typical hedgers won’t be too quick to add to their hedges when prices begin to rise either, so there could be a short term vacuum of sellers for a period of time.

But the Funds (and smaller non reportable traders who also have a very high short position) will find themselves eager to close their shorts (while also adding to their longs), again once it is clear that the downward momentum has exhausted itself. With so many shorts to cover, local traders and other mercenary types will undoubtedly attempt to front run the rush to cover that record high short position.

We here at Got Gold Report see the gold market as being oversold to the downside, even if momentum currently still favors the bears. We have no way of knowing what it is, in advance, or when a catalyst will show itself. However, at major turning points there usually is at least one primary trigger we can end up pointing to in retrospect.

The one thing we are pretty confident in predicting is that the current downward impulse for gold will exhaust itself at some point. When it does, there is a tremendous amount of “high octane rally fuel” already in place to make watching for it very interesting.

We have to admire the courage of those willing to sell gold short in this, very imbalanced environment, knowing that a reversal could occur any moment and that it could be epic in its violence. Rest assured we have neither the courage nor the inclination to do so ourselves.

That is all for now, carry on.
Gene Arensberg for Got Gold Report.



http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2013/05/huge-rally-fuel-in-place-for-gold-futures.html

[Sparky]

Great no-nonsense article mamboni. The gold short position does look like a tinderbox awaiting a spark.

[mamboni]

Great no-nonsense article mamboni. The gold short position does look like a tinderbox awaiting a spark.

Indeed Sparky! We have this superbullish COT structure. Underneath this is the macroeconomic picture which is a powderkeg waiting for a trigger event:

1. The Japanese bond markets is hanging off the edge of a cliff, threatening a massive selloff. Yesterday alone the BOJ had to infuse $1 Trillion yen ($10 billion US) into the bond marlet to prevent a spike in yields. The Japanese bond market is ENORMOUS. The BOJ will have to monetize $trillions trying to prevent a bond price collapse that would wipe out all the major Japanese banks, countless pension and benefit plans and no doubt the rest of the western banking system. The pressure on bond yields will not let up - Abe cooked Japan's goose by projecting their massive monetization plan. Every rational bondholder on planet earth will frontrun the BOJ.

Where will all this new money go? All the stock markets are looking toppy, overbought and engorged with liquidity.

2. Cyprus deposits are collapsing, no doubt a delayed but powerful reaction to the bail-ins a few months ago. Where will all this cash go? Can people really trust paper money at this late date when the entire banking system is a shell on top of a megaleveraged shadow banking illusion of make-believe valuations and currencies can be devalued or even cancelled with the stroke of a pen?

3. Merkel has now signalled that monetary easing is OK and austerity can wait. When Germany throws in the towel and falls in line with the "print your way to prosperity" meme, you know it's late in the day to be holding fiat money in any form. Where will all this cash go?

4. The US economy is dead, sitting atop some FED-made bubbles in housing, student loans, car loans and a bubblicious overbought stock market with excessive leverage and NASDAQ-like PEs in the stratosphere. There are no fundamentals supporting any of this. The only direction left to go is down. When all the cashouts start and the smart money runs for the exits, where will all this cash go? Sure as shit not to bonds. The US bond market is topped out, the ultimate bubble of them all, offering real negative yields and only downside valuation risk. Where will all this cash go?

I'll tell you where: the one place money goes to when there is no place else to go that is safe.


GOLD!

[mamboni]

They call it Dr. Copper for a reason: it is an excellent guage of general economic activity. Well Dr. Copper is diagnosing a stock market bubble:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user20289/imageroot/2013/05/sc-2_1.png

[gunDriller]

They call it Dr. Copper for a reason: it is an excellent guage of general economic activity. Well Dr. Copper is diagnosing a stock market bubble:

i'd say copper is holding pretty steady. it's at $3.285 now, been trading between $3.25 & $3.50.

http://www.kitcometals.com/

i'm not saying economic activity is strong. China engages in channel-stuffing (make-believe manufacturing) just like the US does.


though i guess, if both countries stopped channel stuffing, they would need less copper. a lot less.

seems like the economy is all Facebook ads, cable subscriptions, super high priced medical "care" (no offense), and, OH YEAH, "homeland security" and military contracting.


i'd still like to find out if Logitech is selling any cameras for homeland security aps, and what hard drives the NSA uses.


it's the post-9-11 Judeo-Fascist Economy.

Silver @ 22.80, Gold @ $1406.

[gunDriller]

so, did you guys notice - Silver is 'sort of' on sale today ?

Gold-Silver ratio is up to 63+.

Sinclair says it's un-wise to sell Gold to buy Silver.

i'm not sure if he's saying that from the perspective of a very wealthy man, or if he is thinking from the perspective of 'one of us'.

instead of a rocket, a picture of a submarine ?

http://www.naval-technology.com/projects/astute/images/8-ssn-astute-submarine.jpg

[gunDriller]

RUMP

i mean BUMP.


NO CHANGE IN FED POLICY. time to raid.

i expected them to raid after the Fedspeak. he was a little late, like 2 minutes. 2:02 Eastern, Whammo !!!!

another mini-waterfall.

[osoab]

Party like it's 1999. (low for the overnight) Do we see 18.xx today?

http://www.finviz.com/fut_image.ashx?si.png&rev=635073040256260000

[Neuro]

WOOHOO!
http://www.marksonland.com/Rocket%20Launch%20(slide%2021)_jpg.jpg

[EE_]

WOOHOO!
http://www.marksonland.com/Rocket%20Launch%20(slide%2021)_jpg.jpg

http://ext.alwayson-network.com/blogfiles/images/rocket_crash_300x302.jpg
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/__-2xERuIE_c/TP4Nj1wICKI/AAAAAAAAEfQ/6uR2OLvp0_0/s1600/rocket_crash_150x194.jpg
http://chpn.net/news/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/going_out_of_business-420x277.jpg

[EE_]

If it makes you feel any better, William Devane is taking it in the ass on his gold purchases.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCJCcnhbmr0

[gunDriller]

i was going to guess, next stop $1300/$20 with a GSR of 65.

the Cartel will jam it as low as they can.

i had to go back to September 2010 to find a chart with Gold crossing $1300 and Silver crossing $20.

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//ausep10.gif

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif//agsep10.gif

[Sparky]

OK, returning to the analogies in 1976 and 2008.

The ultimate lows both occurred 6 weeks after the high volume interim low. If history were to rhyme, that would put us into the last week of May. Historically, the seasonal cycle for gold price is the first week of July.

In both cases, the intervening rally peaked at roughly one month after the high volume low. That would be mid-May. What's different in the two cases is the magnitude of the rebound. In 1976 it was about 7%. In 2008, it was a whopping 21%. The analogy here would be a rebound to anywhere between $1400 to $1600, which is quite a broad range.

To summarize:

High Volume Low: $1321 on April 15.
Intervening Rally: $1400-$1600 peaking in mid-May.
Consolidation Bottom: Late May (corrected) $1250-$1300.

Let's see if this plays out.

Well, we have plunged into the long-awaited consolidation bottom range of $1250-$1300. We'd like to see some evidence of short covering beginning in this range, which would be reflected as a distinct rebound well above $1300 before the close today. It would be troublesome if this massive group of shorts is willing to remain short at these prices, rather than cash in on these profits.

[LuckyStrike]

Silver in the teens again, amazing.

I think it will be interesting to see what premiums do and the availability of metal, redemptions from GLD, JP morgan etc have been immense. I also want to see what physical buying does at these levels, did everyone use all of their powder in the 20-30 range? Only time will tell.

It's interesting to see what happens when just the vague mention of scaling back money printing does to markets these days. Everyone gets slaughtered, I'd love to see the governments deficits with interest rates at 8% not to mention this miraculous housing recovery. At the same time I'm sure a lot of the variable rate mortgages from the middle of the last decade have been reset to a very low rate so perhaps housing can somewhat afford slightly higher rates. But the government can't at all.

It's all pure noise though, the bottom line is the government becomes insolvent if interest rates go significantly higher even ignoring unfunded liabilities. I will love to hear CNBC explain away 5 trillion dollar deficits. They have printed money like mad since 08, nothing has changed, they won't stop now I don't care what they say.

[Shami-Amourae]

What I would like to know is if there was any real demand why are there no Silver shortages? Why can I buy Silver at $1.09 above spot? That's a very low premium.

If it goes any lower I may buy myself, even though I regret most of my Silver purchases now.
http://www.providentmetals.com/2013-year-of-the-snake-10-oz-999-fine-silver-bar.html

[LuckyStrike]

If it goes any lower I may buy myself, even though I regret most of my Silver purchases now.
http://www.providentmetals.com/2013-year-of-the-snake-10-oz-999-fine-silver-bar.html


Don't look at it that way. What if silver would have gone to 100 how much would you have bought then? When silver hit 50 I was like well I guess I've bought the last I'm going to buy for some time, now I've been given 2 more years of prices I can afford.

[gunDriller]

Don't look at it that way. What if silver would have gone to 100 how much would you have bought then? When silver hit 50 I was like well I guess I've bought the last I'm going to buy for some time, now I've been given 2 more years of prices I can afford.

if i had any silver, i'd be more likely to sell a little bit if Ag got back into the 40's.

[ximmy]

Don't look at it that way. What if silver would have gone to 100 how much would you have bought then? When silver hit 50 I was like well I guess I've bought the last I'm going to buy for some time, now I've been given 2 more years of prices I can afford.

I finished stacking but got addicted enough not to stop so now I'm more of a collector... these prices are great for that!! ;D

[Neuro]

If it makes you feel any better, William Devane is taking it in the ass on his gold purchases.

It does, I don't know who he is, but I am sure he deserves it! Now percentage wise silvers descent must be greater than 2008-9, or in the ball park at least. A nice cup and handle stretching over more than 33 years is forming, where you have the highs of the cup at $50 in 1980 and 2011 the low of the cup at $4 and possibly the low of the handle at around $20 now, and I would guess break out over $50 a couple of years later 2015/16...

SILVER IS A BITCH!

[Shami-Amourae]

Don't look at it that way. What if silver would have gone to 100 how much would you have bought then? When silver hit 50 I was like well I guess I've bought the last I'm going to buy for some time, now I've been given 2 more years of prices I can afford.

Yeah but with that hindsight I wish I put all my cash into Bitcoins, not Silver. Bitcoin has had more insane gains. I think no one knows what's going on, besides the people in the metals retail industry and the bankers. According to silverfuturist, Rob Grey of the Mulligan Mint mentioned to him that Silver would drop down to $19:

Listen @4:30

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7r8w6L-8Yg

Keep this stuff in mind though. A lot of us have been sold a lot of bullshit by the precious metals retail industry. They will do whatever they can to get us to buy at any price.

[gunDriller]

SILVER IS A BITCH!

small market, highly manipulated by some of the most dishonest people on Earth.

it looks like the only thing stopping a drop to the $15 / $18 range is unavailability of physical.

[Down1]

Up 11 whole pennies.
Commence posting rocket pics !

[Neuro]

small market, highly manipulated by some of the most dishonest people on Earth.

it looks like the only thing stopping a drop to the $15 / $18 range is unavailability of physical.
The only thing I can say is that I am less surprised by this drop from $49.xx, to this level, than i I was in 2008 when it dropped from $21.30 to 8.50, I guess I am more cynical nowadays. However when it went under $10 back then physical was virtually unavailable. So maybe you are right it will go down more. It is funny though, back then just like now I run out of cash to build the stash... Anyway back then I was able to buy significantly when it was in the $12-16 range, and I almost sold everything in the $38-47 range, I traded it for gold then and dollars and I bought in again at $28, so I am still good in terms of monetary value...

[gunDriller]

"Is Gold Still a Safe Investment for You?

On April 15, gold plunged $130 in value... its biggest loss in the past 30 years! Not to mention the precious metal has always been noted for its volatility. But gold prices rebounded recently, reinvigorating the age-old debate on how (and whether) to play the fickle currency."

from the Motley Fool ad on Kitco.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

i wonder how much they pay for that slightly out-of-date ad.


i'm not disputing gold's value, i think it's a 'buy' at $1000 above today's price.

or should i say, i do not think highly of the $FRN.

[osoab]

Up 11 whole pennies.
Commence posting rocket pics !

http://global3.memecdn.com/rmx-rocket-sumo_o_872553.jpg

[gunDriller]

http://global3.memecdn.com/rmx-rocket-sumo_o_872553.jpg

given how much Sumo's eat, they must produce a lot of methane.


do you think the Cartel is going to go for another SLAM next week ?

if i was them (a member of Blythe's currency manipulation staff), i'd try for $1200 Gold and $19 silver.

[Shami-Amourae]

We are at $18 Silver. Discuss.

I'm definitely considering purchasing myself now.

[ximmy]

If I was still stacking, I'd be stacking, but I'm all stacked up... sure is tempting though.

[Shami-Amourae]

If I was still stacking, I'd be stacking, but I'm all stacked up... sure is tempting though.

Personally I don't want anymore Gold/Silver. It's to large a percentage of my wealth already, but it's too tempting. I've been stacking cash a lot lately.

[Libertarian_Guard]

Sub $19 in the paper markets.

Try buying the real stuff, if you can get it, the premiums have never been higher.

[ximmy]

Personally I don't want anymore Gold/Silver. It's to large a percentage of my wealth already, but it's too tempting. I've been stacking cash a lot lately.

I'm thinking of stacking some of these...
http://www.beutilityfree.com/pdf_files/NiFeFlyer.pdf

[ximmy]

Sub $19 in the paper markets.

Try buying the real stuff, if you can get it, the premiums have never been higher.

ATB coins are a steal right now...
check provident... they just popped up one dollar.

[ximmy]

I just bought great basin... hehee



2013 Great Basin National Park 5 oz Silver ATB
BBUS-02544

$111.82

Ordered: 1

$111.82

[Shami-Amourae]

I'm thinking of stacking some of these...
http://www.beutilityfree.com/pdf_files/NiFeFlyer.pdf


I heard about those on the John Moore radio show. He advertised them monthly, but I stopped listening a year ago. He had a representative from Zapp Works (http://www.zappworks.com) on all the time.


I purposely moved to the Magic Valley area since I knew it had a renewable source of hydroelectric power. Power prices here are super cheap and even while Obama/Globalists are out trying to destroy coal power, the power here should stay cheap and plentiful. It's so cheap here that almost almost no one uses gas to heat, since electricity is actually cheaper here than gas. I'm surrounded by farms in every direction, renewable water, and power source. If SHTF happens places with renewable power will most likely keep civilization going IMO.

Plenty to hunt and fish from. My landlord told me it's normal for people here to have 1-2 years of food storage here. I finally sleep a lot better at night.

[Shami-Amourae]

ATB coins are a steal right now...
check provident... they just popped up one dollar.

I disagree with your philosophy. I think buying the cheapest you can buy is all that counts. OPM Bars (http://www.providentmetals.com/opm-10-oz-silver-bar.html) on Provident seem to be the best deal in town, and are only $1.09 above spot.

Almost all the Silver I have is junk, and now that has a $3-7 premium, when before it was purchased for almost spot price. I saw that it would have a shortage in the future since it couldn't be replicated, yet it was cheap. That was the best buy.

[Shami-Amourae]

Sub $19 in the paper markets.

Try buying the real stuff, if you can get it, the premiums have never been higher.
The premiums are low. You can buy as much as you want. There's no shortage from what I see. If there is it's only just-in-time inventory failures.

[Jewboo]

http://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/images/pollyanna.jpg


Oh. We didn't lose a few hundred dollars for each ounce of gold we owned these past few months.

We are having another "buying opportunity" so we can lose even more of our money.

:rolleyes:

[Shami-Amourae]

http://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/images/pollyanna.jpg


Oh. We didn't lose a few hundred dollars for each ounce of gold we owned these past few months.

We are having another "buying opportunity" so we can lose even more of our money.

:rolleyes:

What are you doing then? Just holding cash?

[Santa]

I'm sure glad I followed Peter Schiff's advice and bought a thousand ounces from Perth Mint when he told me to. Today, I'm only 453,000 dollars down. :)


http://youtu.be/f0gWI31on7Q

[gunDriller]

i've been asking myself, how far are they going to push the price ?

ANSWER: as far as they can. it's like dealing with a drug addict.

it will be interesting to watch the physical shortages develop, and the de-coupling of paper-physical.

in the meantime, it's good have a stash of cash, so that you don't need to sell PM's should you need some cash.

[Horn]

I'm sure glad I followed Peter Schiff's advice and bought a thousand ounces from Perth Mint when he told me to. Today, I'm only 453,000 dollars down. :)

It could've been worse, you could've been a house flipper in 08'

[gunDriller]

i did not win the lottery last night.

therefore, there should be some physical metal available for reasonable prices for at least 3 more days - until Friday's lottery. :)

[ximmy]

http://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/images/pollyanna.jpg


Oh. We didn't lose a few hundred dollars for each ounce of gold we owned these past few months.

We are having another "buying opportunity" so we can lose even more of our money.

:rolleyes:

Yes, because dollars are going to last forever... (insert rolly eyes here)

[ximmy]

I disagree with your philosophy. I think buying the cheapest you can buy is all that counts. OPM Bars (http://www.providentmetals.com/opm-10-oz-silver-bar.html) on Provident seem to be the best deal in town, and are only $1.09 above spot.

Almost all the Silver I have is junk, and now that has a $3-7 premium, when before it was purchased for almost spot price. I saw that it would have a shortage in the future since it couldn't be replicated, yet it was cheap. That was the best buy.

What philosophy? Go buy cheap NTR bars and watch them rise and fall with spot. Buy the good stuff and watch your profit grow.

2012- P Hawaii 5 Oz. ATB (NQ3) SOLD OUT! US $698.00
2012-P HAWAII 5 oz. ATB (NQ3) SOLD OUT US $577.88

[gunDriller]

What philosophy? Go buy cheap NTR bars and watch them rise and fall with spot. Buy the good stuff and watch your profit grow.

2012- P Hawaii 5 Oz. ATB (NQ3) SOLD OUT! US $698.00
2012-P HAWAII 5 oz. ATB (NQ3) SOLD OUT US $577.88

i agree with both of you.


the ATB 5 ounce rounds are like Silver Art bars. they are pretty. with the right buyer, they will command more at purchase.


but with some buyers, they don't care if you have 2 ATB's or 1 NTR 10 ouncer. to them it's the same.


and then there are some WIERDO's who think 10 ounce NTR's are pretty. i suppose that's where i belong.


also, there is one 'Plus' to the 1 ounce APMex bars. they have a huge burr - very poorly made.

HOWEVER, if you are dealing with poison oak, as i am all summer long, that burr on that 1 ounce bar comes in handy - as a scratching device.


looking forward to taking that one into a dealer, covered with dead skin and caked with dried blood and poison oak slime.

"How much for this ?" :)

[Sparky]

Wow, after the carnage of recent days, I didn't see this afternoon's $25 rapid plunge below $1200 coming. You guys said all the price raids happen in the morning! I thought we'd get a breather for at least a day.

[Sparky]

Hmmm. The mining stocks were going down alongside the $25 spot price plunge, and then oddly took a nearly 2% bounce with heavy volume, beginning at 1:56 PM EDT. Curious.

[gunDriller]

Wow, after the carnage of recent days, I didn't see this afternoon's $25 rapid plunge below $1200 coming. You guys said all the price raids happen in the morning! I thought we'd get a breather for at least a day.

seems like it takes 2 days to make the shift down, about 11%, to the lower trading range. $26 to $24, $24 to $22, $22 to 20, etc.


the best thing you can do for a young person going to college in 10 years is to send them off with a roll of 50x 1/10 ounce AGE's.

http://www.providentmetals.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1//9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/t/e/tenth_rev.jpg

and those are now Seriously On Sale !


i wonder what's going on with Silver. normally if Gold dropped 2%+, Silver would drop 4%+. but not today.

[gunDriller]

as soon as Hong Kong opens (8:45 PM Eastern), the Raid commences.

http://www.kitco.com/images/live/silver.gif

http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif

NO SUBLETY TODAY.

[Horn]

Guess they heard you noticing them today...

[gunDriller]

Guess they heard you noticing them today...

i heard one PM Pundit talking about how the Friday price rise was related to short covering.

people had to buy to meet contractual obligations.

it was "that time of the month".

[EagleMan]

If anyone is interested in buying Silver Eagles at spot, visit www.spoteagles.com. They also offer a discount on Gold Eagles.

[EagleMan]

i heard one PM Pundit talking about how the Friday price rise was related to short covering.

people had to buy to meet contractual obligations.

it was "that time of the month".


What did the pundit mean when he said "it was that time of the month"?

[gunDriller]

What did the pundit mean when he said "it was that time of the month"?

that was my comment/ wise-crack.

i was thinking the dramatic price rise on Friday June 28 was related to end-of-month, end-of-quarter short covering.

literally, 'that time of the month' - they had to buy or go long to meet their contractual promises, a circumstance related to the date - last trading day of the month & quarter, in a month when there was a huge amount of shorting activity.

[EagleMan]

Silver and Gold Prices Have Gained 5.5 and 3.7 Percent Respectively in the Last Two Days. If you want to participate in the gold or silver markets a relatively cheap and easy way is to buy Gold or Silver eagle coins and you can get them at discounted prices through--------.

[chad]

Silver and Gold Prices Have Gained 5.5 and 3.7 Percent Respectively in the Last Two Days. If you want to participate in the gold or silver markets a relatively cheap and easy way is to buy Gold or Silver eagle coins and you can get them at discounted prices through www.spoteagles.com (http://www.spoteagles.com).

i like how there's a big ass disclaimer at the bottom of your site written in red that says "solicitation for other websites is not allowed," and then you come on here and spam.

[Neuro]

i like how there's a big ass disclaimer at the bottom of your site written in red that says "solicitation for other websites is not allowed," and then you come on here and spam.
Awwwh! Let him stay, we need more members! ;D

[Jewboo]

Awwwh! Let him stay, we need more members!



http://photogallery.indiatimes.com/celebs/celeb-themes/on-screen-hookers/photo/20243781/Kareena-Kapoor-has-played-the-sex-worker-in-Chameli-and-Talaash-The-actress-performance-in-both-the-movies-received-laurels-In-fact-commenting-on-her-role-in-Talaash-some-even-said-shes-too-classy-to-be-a-street-hooker-.jpg

Yeah...she is only here seeking friendship............................not to make money. Neuro needs more friends.

:)

[Spectrism]

Who is "spoteagles.com"? It could be a credit card collecting scam. NOBODY sells eagles at spot. That is just plain stupid. Country of origin? China? I bet they make millions of special "eagles" worth 20 cents each that they would gladly sell at $20.

[gunDriller]

Who is "spoteagles.com"? It could be a credit card collecting scam. NOBODY sells eagles at spot. That is just plain stupid. Country of origin? China? I bet they make millions of special "eagles" worth 20 cents each that they would gladly sell at $20.

http://www.goldismoney2.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=826&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1287528471

OMG - a GIM2-hosted image !

didn't see that till i pasted it.

"spot eagles" made me think of 'spots on silver maples' - e.g. from this thread
http://www.goldismoney2.com/showthread.php?2709-Royal-Canadian-Mint-s-official-position-on-quot-milk-spots-quot-on-silver-Maple-Leaf-coins

[Neuro]

Yeah...she is only here seeking friendship............................not to make money. Neuro needs more friends.

All you need is love!



... and canned mackerel in tomato sauce...

[gunDriller]

... and canned mackerel in tomato sauce...

was it canned before or after Fukushima ?

[EagleMan]

We are located in Illinois and you don't have to pay by credit card, you can pay through paypal or by check. We buy the coins from US dealers whenever we get an order from someone. Please call us toll-free at 855-428-2628.

[Spectrism]

We are located in Illinois and you don't have to pay by credit card, you can pay through paypal or by check. We buy the coins from US dealers whenever we get an order from someone. Please call us toll-free at 855-428-2628.

How do you gain from selling these at SPOT?


Buy Silver Eagles at Spot
Three Easy ways to pay


Call toll free 855-425-2628
Use your Pay Pal account
By check or wire transfer

[Mouse]

That's funny. I buy my coins directly from US dealers whenever I get an order FROM MYSELF. What do I need another middleman for?

[Neuro]

was it canned before or after Fukushima ?
The mackerel from the North Atlantic is probably more negatively affected by Chernobyl, but I think pre-1986 is a bit too vintage-y even for cannned mackerel. Some cans have expiry dates in 2018, but I figure by storing them in my root cellar, I should be able to extend its shelf life to arround 2023, at least. A bigger worry with cannned fatty fish is its content of mercury, but it seems from my research that North Atlantic mackerel is safe in this regard...

[EagleMan]

That's funny. I buy my coins directly from US dealers whenever I get an order FROM MYSELF. What do I need another middleman for?

The only reason you might want another middleman is; if you want to buy silver eagle coins at spot, but cannot get that low of a price from US dealers.

[EagleMan]

How do you gain from selling these at SPOT?

We are looking for people that are interested in investments and trading in the metals markets through an affiliated company of ours.

[Neuro]

We are looking for people that are interested in investments and trading in the metals markets through an affiliated company of ours.
Yes, but it doesn't answer the question, does it? You are selling eagles at spot. What source do you have that sells Eagles below spot? I would say such a source doesn't exist today. Which means that you are either stupid or frauds, I would venture the latter...

[gunDriller]

A long time ago, in a Galaxy Far, Far Away ... this thread was about Daily PM Price Moves.

Harvey Organ's Monday column ... "Today despite gold and silver up dramatically, the gold shares fell off into negative territory. Gold shone today but silver hardly moved. This is generally a sure signal that the bankers wish to raid again tomorrow."

a little bit, but nothing major.


of course, Silver @ $1 below the cost of production (after adding in the $1 spread to the spot price ~ $19.30 ==> $20.30) ... what a fvcking deal.

[Spectrism]

We are looking for people that are interested in investments and trading in the metals markets through an affiliated company of ours.

Let me guess..... you take orders in US dollars and send silver eagles from your factory in China. You are so kind and generous that you are willing to lose money by buying silver at spot, minting it as fraud US Eagles- pretending it is actually all silver, and expect your associates will be so foolish as to think they can resell for profit.

[EagleMan]

Yes, but it doesn't answer the question, does it? You are selling eagles at spot. What source do you have that sells Eagles below spot? I would say such a source doesn't exist today. Which means that you are either stupid or frauds, I would venture the latter...

It is true that we are selling the eagles at a loss (we cannot buy eagles at the price we are selling them), but we are doing it to gain long-term relationships/customers that are interested in trading.

[Spectrism]

It is true that we are selling the eagles at a loss (we cannot buy eagles at the price we are selling them), but we are doing it to gain long-term relationships/customers that are interested in trading.

What country are you in? What is your ethnic background? Who is your parent company?

[EagleMan]

Who is "spoteagles.com"? It could be a credit card collecting scam. NOBODY sells eagles at spot. That is just plain stupid. Country of origin? China? I bet they make millions of special "eagles" worth 20 cents each that they would gladly sell at $20.

We are a company that works with a futures firm. The fact that you can buy 2 silver eagle coins for spot is true. These are eagles we buy from our local coin dealer. For that purchase you agree to talk our futures division. We are not high pressure. If you are trading futures, or are interested in futures, we would like to talk to you to see if we can work together. If you are not interested, then we will send you 2 silver eagles at the closing spot price the day we talk to you.

[EagleMan]

We are in Chicago. Give us a call at 855-428-2628.

[MNeagle]

We are a company that works with a futures firm. The fact that you can buy 2 silver eagle coins for spot is true. These are eagles we buy from our local coin dealer. For that purchase you agree to talk our futures division. We are not high pressure. If you are trading futures, or are interested in futures, we would like to talk to you to see if we can work together. If you are not interested, then we will send you 2 silver eagles at the closing spot price the day we talk to you.


ah, the ol' timeshare spiel! Listen to this 2-hour presentation & you can stay for 1/2 price!!

How long have you been in business? Are there any reports to the Attorney General about you 'business practices'?

SPAM

[gunDriller]

We are a company that works with a futures firm. The fact that you can buy 2 silver eagle coins for spot is true. These are eagles we buy from our local coin dealer. For that purchase you agree to talk our futures division. We are not high pressure. If you are trading futures, or are interested in futures, we would like to talk to you to see if we can work together. If you are not interested, then we will send you 2 silver eagles at the closing spot price the day we talk to you.

one option is to say that up front.

my guess is, that would go over better - and you would get more closed sales.

also, the "Discussion of daily PM price moves" thread is not the optimal place to post the core of your advertising message.

[EagleMan]

What country are you in? What is your ethnic background? Who is your parent company?

We are in the United States. We are Americans. The parent company is Financial Consortium International Asset Management LLC, a Delaware registered LLC in good standing since March of 1999.

[carpathian]

We are in the United States. We are Americans. The parent company is Financial Consortium International Asset Management LLC, a Delaware registered LLC in good standing since March of 1999.

ok dude , there is the "trading section" or "spam section" of the forum. your posts do not belong to this thread.
whatever your intention is. sorry foir misspelling. i'm drunk

[gunDriller]

so getting back to PM's ... last weekend, the close was about $18.90. this weekend it's $19.92.

ever since Dan Norcini said, "17.50", now he's got me wondering. that would be a good show. i don't know if the Cartel could do it. they've gotten soft. they're worrying about their tan, putting toothpicks between their toes, like Zonker in Doonesbury.

[Sparky]

Gold has given back 25 bucks today, after having run up $175 off of the late-June bottom. Current price ($1325) has been cited as a technical test. If a short squeeze is in progress, it should turn back around from here. Otherwise, a correction all the way down to a test of $1300 would still be a normal and healthy correction in the middle of a big up move.

[Down1]

Silver back above today $20.00 today.
Get those rockets out !

[gunDriller]

why is the Gold-Silver ratio contracting ?

a short squeeze affecting Silver MORE than Gold ?!

i thought with all the naked shorting on Gold, and the Silver market being much smaller (easier for the Cartel to hold down), that Silver rising to right near its 60 day moving average
http://www.kitco.com/lfgif/ag1825lf_ma.gif

would see similar action out of Gold
http://www.kitco.com/lfgif/au1825lf_ma.gif

which would put Gold at about $1350.


possible CONCLUSION: it's summer-time and the Cartel is on vacation.

[Son-of-Liberty]

Looks like the cartel is really having to work hard today to keep gold below the 1350 level. Only PM in the Red right now.

[Son-of-Liberty]

Another day with gold down while the other PM's are up. They are getting desperate.

[gunDriller]

i think someone in Washington is on the phone with someone in London talking about the Bank of England letting go of some more of their 5200 tons of Gold.

according to the Chris Powell / Grant Williams interview webcasts, the decrease of 100,000 100 ounce bars ... left them with 400,000 bars, vs. 500,000 in their previous official info release/ quarterly report thingie.

1300 tons (400,000,000 ounces). for the time-frame that included April 12/15 and the next several weeks.


whether they can beat back the onslaught of buying by releasing another big batch of bars & paper-smashing the prices again - or whether they want to - who knows.

the bullion banks are supposed to be net longs so they profit from the ride up.

[Sparky]

Another day with gold down while the other PM's are up. They are getting desperate.

Well, that certainly didn't last long. $45 rebound from this morning. I love it when the cartel finally switches to a long position. ;)

[Sparky]

The other beautiful thing about today's move has to do with all the technicians warning about major resistance at $1350. Today the price rocketed from $1340 to $1365 in about 15 minutes, spending about 30 seconds at $1350.

[Neuro]

The other beautiful thing about today's move has to do with all the technicians warning about major resistance at $1350. Today the price rocketed from $1340 to $1365 in about 15 minutes, spending about 30 seconds at $1350.
I have seen this often when it has broken through resistance, previously.

[gunDriller]

http://www.spaceanswers.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Rocket-fuel.jpg

[ximmy]

http://www.spaceanswers.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Rocket-fuel.jpg

it needs to recover over 40 ...then onward & upward...

[StreetsOfGold]

Today's move up in wilver 8_24_13 reminds me of an old saying the old guys used to say to me when I was a kid
"buck up, son"

[gunDriller]

in order for someone to be buying @ $24, someone has to be selling @ $24.


who is nuts enough to sell at $24 ?

[Sparky]

in order for someone to be buying @ $24, someone has to be selling @ $24.


who is nuts enough to sell at $24 ?

Most likely the people who bought at $18 and at $48...

[gunDriller]

Most likely the people who bought at $18 and at $48...

i have trouble understanding the short term perspective. e.g. someone who bought July 1 - start of a new quarter - then sells now, to book a profit of maybe $23-$19 = $4 per ounce of Silver.

sure, if you take an investment amount X (19) and sell it for 1.21 * X (=23), you have made a profit, and you can report a 21% profit in one quarter.


however, if you kept the metal, you'd be better off in the long-term.


if someone loaned me the money - and i could palm any major losses onto the banksters - that might be appealing.


so i could sort of understand the short term outlook. but it involves converting your money into a form that many of us consider to be unstable (the US $).


so going through these manipulations so that you can 'make money' for the quarter ending September 30 - that certainly affects the price action.

[Son-of-Liberty]

1400 just got taken out.

Maybe I am overly optimistic but I feel like we are seeing the beach ball that was held under the water beginning to rise to the surface.

[Shami-Amourae]

Wish I bought more Silver at $18.
:(

[gunDriller]

Wish I bought more Silver at $18.
:(

unless something has changed, the Cartel will be back to push Silver down to $22-ish.


one thing that has changed - bullion banks being net longs.


we obviously need at least one G-S.us member to bite the bullet, and to go live in NYC, and to either -
* chase Blythe outside the workplace, e.g. at the gym
* to work for JPMorgue, right in the belly of the beast.

then to send us all PM's and to tell us what's going on.


insiders have a SWEET DEAL. they get at least 1 chance a week to make a guaranteed 3% on their money. that does pile up.

[gunDriller]

they're really raiding, bra.

i've been waiting for this. i wondered how high the Cartel would allow prices to get before they tried to push the beachball back underwater.


it's amazing that in America, currency manipulation is considered to be an activity that should be highly rewarded.

[ximmy]

they're really raiding, bra.

i've been waiting for this. i wondered how high the Cartel would allow prices to get before they tried to push the beachball back underwater.


it's amazing that in America, currency manipulation is considered to be an activity that should be highly rewarded.

Gold And Silver Slamdown As US Equities Open http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/pictures/picture-5.jpg (http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden)
Submitted by Tyler Durden (http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden) on 08/28/2013 09:29 -0400



Equity Markets (http://www.zerohedge.com/taxonomy_vtn/term/10035)
Israel (http://www.zerohedge.com/taxonomy_vtn/term/11121)
Precious Metals (http://www.zerohedge.com/taxonomy_vtn/term/11344)





inShare4



With the escalating tensions - as Israel now steps up:


ISRAEL IS DEPLOYING ALL OF ITS MISSILE DEFENSES AS A PRECAUTION.

It makes perfect sense that the precious metals are being slammed lower (as well as WTI modestly) as US equity markets open. No other asset-classes are exhibiting the vertical moves. Pre-open margin calls?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/08-2/20130828_PMs_0.jpg (http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/08-2/20130828_PMs_1.jpg)

[Neuro]

Gold And Silver Slamdown As US Equities Open

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/pictures/picture-5.jpg (http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden)
Submitted by Tyler Durden (http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden) on 08/28/2013 09:29 -0400



Equity Markets (http://www.zerohedge.com/taxonomy_vtn/term/10035)
Israel (http://www.zerohedge.com/taxonomy_vtn/term/11121)
Precious Metals (http://www.zerohedge.com/taxonomy_vtn/term/11344)





inShare4



With the escalating tensions - as Israel now steps up:


ISRAEL IS DEPLOYING ALL OF ITS MISSILE DEFENSES AS A PRECAUTION.

It makes perfect sense that the precious metals are being slammed lower (as well as WTI modestly) as US equity markets open. No other asset-classes are exhibiting the vertical moves. Pre-open margin calls?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/08-2/20130828_PMs_0.jpg (http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/08-2/20130828_PMs_1.jpg)
Let's hope this one will come back and bite them in their assets...

[Son-of-Liberty]

This smash was expected.

They couldn't even get it under 1400 which is a key technical level. Seems to be recovering already.

[Sparky]

I think the big players have started moving into long positions, so it's going to become harder and harder to slam price. This can probably only happen after sharp run-ups (like we've had) when the slammers can work in unison with short-term profit takers and have a temporary (days) impact on price.

[gunDriller]

i'm wondering what can be deduced from Silver being hit harder than Gold.

for a while there, Silver was rallying powerfully.


i know it's a much smaller market, easier to move the price.

but the move in Silver a few weeks ago was impressive. some of the pundits talked about the 'industrial metal' aspect of Silver, ties to China's production economy, etc.


so, is this a sign that the Cartel "just" wanted to raid PM's (again) ?

or is this also telling us something about industrial metals ?


i had some copper wire i was thinking about selling. Copper is down today too.


when the Dow keeps going Up and Up and Up it's wierd. it used to be a sign of economic strength. now i think it's mainly a sign that money got printed and needed somewhere to go.

[Son-of-Liberty]

5302

(Not sure why this is showing up as a thumbnail!!???)

Bankers are up to their usual shenanigans again overnight.

[Son-of-Liberty]

5304

WTF is going on with the metals?

Gold down 0.31%, Silver up 2.87% and this after they both got smashed hard on the open of overseas trading.

[Son-of-Liberty]

5305

Look at this silver chart!!

[gunDriller]

5305

Look at this silver chart!!


someone made a quick 4%+ on the bounce from $23.11 (the lowest it got Sunday PM) to $24.20.

[MNeagle]

What happened @ 2 a.m.? http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=GC&cot=088691&p=m5 http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5

[EE_]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3GTlxvluZ0&feature=player_embedded

[gunDriller]

What happened @ 2 a.m.?

'glitch' & possible trading halt, associated with gold price decrease. Zero hedge goes into some detail, has the screen captures.

there's plenty of time between now & next week (another Fed meeting). think they'll manage to get Silver back to a $21 handle ?

[Son-of-Liberty]

I should just keep m mouth shut when getting optimistic about PM's.

WTF

[Son-of-Liberty]

Anyone know why the metals are getting slammed this badly? Was that entire rally just because the threat of a war in Syria and now that they have backed off that the price is collapsing?

[Son-of-Liberty]

What happened @ 2 a.m.? http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=GC&cot=088691&p=m5 http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5

This market is so rigged. Nobody legitimately exiting a large position would sell a huge wad like that all at once. Only reason you would do that is to blast through a resistance level and force people on margin out of their positions. Looks like it worked like a charm.

This shit happens all the time but 90% of the time it is to the down side.

[Sparky]

This market is so rigged. Nobody legitimately exiting a large position would sell a huge wad like that all at once. Only reason you would do that is to blast through a resistance level and force people on margin out of their positions. Looks like it worked like a charm.

This shit happens all the time but 90% of the time it is to the down side.

SOL, you'd feel better if you replaced your frustration with the acceptance that this is how ALL markets move. Downward moves in ALL markets are sharper than upward moves, regardless of manipulation. It's how markets work. Apple has had some recent down-days twice as bad as this.

I think we're in the early stages of a 2-3 year rise. The only way a market can rise over such a long period is if there are sufficient periodic drops to attract new buyers.

In the short term, a rise back to near $1350 by the end of the day would probably mean we have flushed out all the near terms sellers and are ready for the next advance. If we stay down the $1325-$1335 range, then we're probably heading back below $1300. I think it will be the former, but I have to accept that it might be the latter, and remember that we were below $1200 just 75 days ago.

[gunDriller]

Anyone know why the metals are getting slammed this badly? Was that entire rally just because the threat of a war in Syria and now that they have backed off that the price is collapsing?

the same people who smacked it April 12-15 + May + June are still At Large.

A/ Syria calming down.
B/ totally fake unemployment numbers today, related to 2 states' computer systems being re-worked. which would normally raise the prospect of tapering QE, but everybody knows these jobs numbers are not counting 2 states (or whatever it is).

still, they whacked. i think they were looking for a time to whack, and this was it.

[Son-of-Liberty]

So why did gold and silver get crushed again on friday? Normal trading and price action? Any good news for the economy? Mine production of gold up?

No reason except to move the technicals back into bearish territory.

yeah right.......

[Son-of-Liberty]

http://gold-silver.us/forum/showthread.php?72945-Hopelessly-Broken-Turd-Ferguson


Hopelessly Broken Tweet (http://twitter.com/share)

By Turd Ferguson | Saturday, September 21, 2013 at 1:14 pm

The "markets" for precious metals have become a farce. That gold and silver...TRUE, SOUND AND UNIVERSAL MONEY...continue to be valued at the whims of computer trading on The Comex is a disgrace and a complete sham.
This post is not intended to be an overwhelming study of the evidence. My concern here is simply to show you how this works on a daily and intra-day basis. Besides, the late Adrian Douglas left us all with the seminal research on many of these same issues. Just simply Google his name if you want to read more.
The first thing you need to understand is that The Comex metals pits have become a ghost town. Back in the day, humans interacted with other humans and "price" was determined at the intersection of paper supply and paper demand. But now:


The vast majority of trading are electronic transactions, made between HFT computers.
And volume and liquidity have declined dramatically. As recently as 2010, the total open interest for Comex gold was near 650,000 contracts. As of last Thursday, total OI was just 381,000. A drop of over 40%.

And let's discuss #2 further...Much of the open interest disappeared after the MFGlobal disaster of 10/31/11. Once the CME abandoned their fiduciary responsibility to MFG account holders, many market participants left The Comex, never to return. Additionally, many are barred from returning as their Compliance Departments now prohibit them from trading there.
So, we're left with a "market" that has roughly half the participants and liquidity that it had three years ago AND very little rational, human trading. This, of course, is the perfect market setup for the manipulative bullion banks.
Recall the entire, counter-intuitive move from late last year. Once price was manipulated down below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages in February, to continue the slide all the bullion banks had to do was foster conditions that maintained this negative technical picture. The Large Spec HFTs continued to sell paper gold, in the process building up a record net short position and, into this selling, the bullion banks bought and covered. So much so that JPMorgan, the biggest and most destructive bullion bank, has been able to convert what had been a 75,000 contract net short position into a 75,000 net long position, instead. The point here is this: As long as The Bullion Bank Cartel can maintain a negative technical picture, the Spec algo HFTs will continue to sell paper gold and keep price low and we've seen this demonstrated rather dramatically in just the past week.
Recall that, every Friday, the CFTC cranks out what they call the "Commitment of Traders" report. This is an aggregated summary report of the positions of all market participants, based upon a survey taken at the Comex close the previous Tuesday. So, the report we got yesterday reflected the combined positions as of last Tuesday. And why is this important?? Because the main event this week, The Big Daddy, was the release of the FOMC "Fedlines" and remember that those were released back on Wednesday, the day after the latest CoT survey was taken.
And what did we see in this latest CoT report for gold? For the reporting week:
LARGE SPECS: Dumped 2,500 longs and added 7,400 new shorts. Net change = 9,900 net short
SMALL SPECS: Added 100 longs but also added 5,000 new shorts. Net change = 4,900 net short
CARTEL BANKS: Added 3,700 new longs and covered 11,100 shorts. Net change = 14,800 net long
So, in the week leading up to "the most important FOMC headlines ever", the bullion banks led the Specs into selling a net of nearly 15,000 contracts so that they could buy and cover 15,000.
Of course we all know what happened next. At 2:00 EDT on Wednesday, after The Comex had closed for the day, the Fedlines are released. To nearly everyone's surprise (except us in Turdville), no change in the $85B/month was made and the precious metals soared. What happened? Was this new buying or simple short covering? No doubt there was some of both but what can we deduce from the latest open interest numbers?
As of Thursday's close, total gold open interest had declined over 3,000 contracts from Wednesday. The only way price rises while open interest falls is by short-covering and closing of positions. This is what drove prices on Thursday and I have no doubt that this is how it played out:


After price had convincingly broken back UP and through both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, the HFT specs algos were tripped into "buy" mode.
This caused a spike in Spec short-covering which the bullion banks used to sell some of their accumulated longs.
On Thursday, however, rallies could never get any traction. Spec buying would enter and drive price up, only to see it be almost immediately capped by Cartel bank selling. Several attempts were made to rally but each one was suppressed. It looked like this: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/paper_9-20amgold30min_1_0.jpeg
All day Thursday, the same HFTs that were selling last week and building a short position were now buying and building a long position.
Having now tricked the Specs into selling last week and then buying on Thursday, all that was left for The Cartel was to foster the conditions that would trick the Specs back into selling on Friday. And that is EXACTLY what they did.

The first attempt to break gold back down came at the regular, appointed hour of 2:00 am EDT on Friday morning. This London-based selling successfully dipped price all the way back down to the 100-day moving average near $1353. When that level held however, more drastic measures had to be employed and, twenty minutes before The Comex opened, we got another blast of Cartel selling which finally drove price down and through the 100-day MA.
(IMPORTANT: How do we know that this is deliberate, manipulative Cartel selling? Simply put, no other entity would summarily dump a large amount of contracts onto such an illiquid market as the pre-Comex. A human, for-profit trader would wait until The Comex open in order to ensure the best possible execution.)
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/paper_9-20amgold1min_0.jpeg (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/9-20amgold1min_0.jpeg)
By jamming price back down and under the 100-day moving average, The Cartel had succeeded in setting the tone for the day. The same, brainless Spec HFTs that had so quickly bought and covered on Thursday were flipped back into "sell" mode. With price back below the 100-day MA and then, later in the day, back under the 50-day, too, the Spec HFTs mindlessly sold and sold and, of course, into this selling, The Cartel Banks bought and bought, successfully and profitably covering all of the shorts they had employed in capping price the day before. This is textbook Market Manipulation 101. This is how it works.
And now we're left with gold and silver charts that are clearly tilted lower. Prices will almost certainly decline even further on Monday as additional, technical-based Spec HFT selling comes in. And, as usual, into this selling The Cartel will be buying new longs and covering shorts. Once we get to the point where the spec selling abates or physical supply issues rear up again, The Gold Cartel will sufficiently paint the tape once more to flip the Spec HFTs back into "buy" mode and the whole process will repeat.
The WINNERS = The prop trading desks of The Bullion Banks
The LOSERS = All of the Spec money, both large and small, foolish enough to think that they are participating in a free and fair market.
And now you should be asking yourself: HOW and WHEN will this ever end?
It will only end WHEN the fractional reserve bullion banking system finally breaks. We know that the system is already cracking and unraveling as registered Comex inventories and deliverable ounces per contract have both reached record and extreme levels. See these two charts courtesy of Jesse:
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/paper_comexreg_copy_6.jpg (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/comexreg_copy_6.jpg)http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/images_1.jpg (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/images_1.jpg)
One day in the future, Comex gold trading will simply cease. Trading will stop and all naked shorts will be forced to cash-settle every long at the previous day's closing price. Following that, gold will find a new valuation based solely upon the price level at which market participants are willing to exchange physical metal for some type of other currency.
Until then, the world is forced to continue participating in this current farcical scheme. True, sound and universal MONEY, literally valued for millennia as stores of wealth will, in the meantime, be subject to the pricing whims of a bullion banking Cartel concerned with nothing more than their own profits and survival.
Your only option in this environment is to continue to accumulate physical metal at these deeply discounted prices, while you still can, using the Cartel's tactics against them and assisting in their ultimate demise.
TF
p.s. I discussed many of these topics yesterday with The Doc and Eric Dubin at SilverDoctors: http://www.silverdoctors.com/metals-markets-with-turd-ferguson-fed-monkeys-lose-control/. You can also listen to it here:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/5080/hopelessly-broken

[gunDriller]

So why did gold and silver get crushed again on friday? Normal trading and price action? Any good news for the economy? Mine production of gold up?

No reason except to move the technicals back into bearish territory.

yeah right.......


no way Gold & Silver did that "on their own".


i thought that after the markets re-opened on Wednesday after the 45 (?) minute close, they didn't gap upwards, that it was a sign that they would be backing off (i.e. declining).

i had been waiting for the Cartel to assert themselves.


Dan Norcini knows the markets but he insists that these moves are all hedge funds & speculators, no interference whatsoever.

that i don't understand. with all the news of mine closures, most related to price, some because of labor issues e.g. a strike, that equals increasing investment consumption (more than 4000 tons per year) and falling production (@ about 2350 tons and declining).


i understand why short term investors are avoiding precious metals. the message has been sent - "you can't make money on Precious metals unless you're an insider in 2013, go away".

but the fundamentals are just, well, Sterling.

[Shami-Amourae]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RD36JxI2dYI

[gunDriller]

the Cartel got the USD index back into the 80's.

maybe that was their goal for the week ?

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED !

http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_usd_en_2.gif

[Horn]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RD36JxI2dYI

Hmmm convenient, Government shutdown during a week long holiday in China, who coordinated that orchestra?

[mamboni]

This is a very good interview where Hudes eloquently describes the general manner of corruption in the system. She touchs on the corporate oligarchs, the BIS and central banks, the control and corruption of the mainstream media and gold. She makes a remarkable claim, that there is more gold "out there" then authorities acknowledge and that 170,000 tons of gold reside on deposit in the Bank of Hawaii(!) alone. Maybe silver is a far better investment vis-a-vis gold than many of us realize?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&amp;v=4hgA9j-4dB0

[Shami-Amourae]

Rawdog thinks Silver will crash once Debt Ceiling is raised:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRr_Vv0-0Z4

[Spectrism]

Prediction: silver will be at $19.65 on October 28th 2013.

[gunDriller]

Prediction: silver will be at $19.65 on October 28th 2013.

that's a good call, seems real realistic.


what i want to know is where Silver & Gold will be in the January-February 2014 time-frame.

it's got to pop (up) sometime, the question is when.


i don't think the Cartel has the firepower (physical bullion to satisfy demand from their price manipulation) to play their Strong Dollar Policy game all of 2014.


one other tool they have is the raising of interest rates - at least it used to be in the past.

[Horn]

it's got to pop (up) sometime, the question is when.

When Chinese oil consumption surpasses the U.S. and Silver is only denominated in yuan.

Forcing you to pay an exchange fee for acquiring or selling any.

[ximmy]

More people are waking up to the fact that gold & silver has always been and will always be money. That you can't store weath in dollars.

When TPTB know the dollar end is near, they will try hardest to manipulate metals lower so they can trade their dollars for gold & silver, and encourage their friends to do so also.

[Shami-Amourae]

More people are waking up to the fact that gold & silver has always been and will always be money. That you can't store weath in dollars.

When TPTB know the dollar end is near, they will try hardest to manipulate metals lower so they can trade their dollars for gold & silver, and encourage their friends to do so also.

My family thinks I'm a nutcase since of telling them about Gold/Silver. My father always mocks me when I talk to him about what a stupid investment Gold/Silver is.
:(

[Horn]

My family thinks I'm a nutcase since of telling them about Gold/Silver. My father always mocks me when I talk to him about what a stupid investment Gold/Silver is.
:(

Guess he hasn't caught up with the information & computing age of the 21st century?



By Miho Yoshikawa
HONJO, Japan (http://www.reuters.com/places/japan?lc=int_mb_1001) | Sun Apr 27, 2008 3:30am EDT

A tonne of ore from a gold mine produces just 5 grams (0.18 ounce) of gold on average, whereas a tonne of discarded mobile phones can yield 150 grams (5.3 ounce) or more, according to a study by Yokohama Metal Co Ltd, another recycling firm.

The same volume of discarded mobile phones also contains around 100 kg (220 lb) of copper and 3 kg (6.6 lb) of silver, among other metals.

Recycling has gained in importance as metals prices hit record highs. Gold is trading at around $890 an ounce, after hitting a historic high of $1,030.80 in March.

Copper and tin are also around record highs and silver prices are well above long term averages.



http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/04/27/us-japan-metals-recycling-idUST13528020080427


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fk9Npbl9Qrw
(http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/04/27/us-japan-metals-recycling-idUST13528020080427)

[Neuro]

My family thinks I'm a nutcase since of telling them about Gold/Silver. My father always mocks me when I talk to him about what a stupid investment Gold/Silver is.
:(
My mum, just a couple of weeks ago, bought a quarter of kilo of gold from me (about 8 ounces Troy), it was a real surprise to me, and she stated reasons such as risk of American default, to much money printing etc... I needed the cash and I would have been reluctant to sell to anyone apart from my mum, at this price. But now it stays in the family...

[ximmy]

My family thinks I'm a nutcase since of telling them about Gold/Silver. My father always mocks me when I talk to him about what a stupid investment Gold/Silver is.
:(

It's still early... My sister just bought this year, big time, after waiting on the fence for the last two years. Now Mom wants in too...

[EE_]

It's still early... My sister just bought this year, big time, after waiting on the fence for the last two years. Now Mom wants in too...

Nice to hear some people ain't afraid of no ghost

[gunDriller]

i'm loving the bear-ish sentiment at Dan Norcini's blog -


"Friday, October 11, 2013
Investment Demand for Gold in the West continues to Weaken
Love or it hate it, the largest gold ETF on the planet, GLD, is still one of the best, if not the best indicator of the size of Western investment demand for the yellow metal.

As noted here many times now, the reported gold tonnage in this vehicle, continues to sink.

You thus have two key indicators here in the West, GLD and the HUI or index of gold shares, both of which are telling us that gold has fallen out of favor with the investment class. Whether we like this or not is immaterial. It is a fact and reflects the sentiment towards gold here in the West. To be successful at trading one must learn to accept what the market is saying even if you disagree with it. That means becoming a hard-nosed, thick-skinned realist and tuning out anything to the contrary.

When sentiment turns, you either turn with it or lose money. It is really that painfully simple."


sounds like there are some times when losing money is the SMART thing to do.

as Sinclair says, without the debt.


the bearish comments -
"GM JenkinsOctober 11, 2013 at 11:08 AM

Thanks, Dan - you're doing a great service here. Given that many of your readers know you from jsmineset, TFmetals, and King World News (that's how I found this site), your sober counterpoint to the "Great Endgame" warnings (however justified they may be) is much needed.

The head and shoulders on the weekly chart looks awful. (So awful, I'm now beginning to wonder if it's a painted trap; who in his right mind would go long gold or gold equities here??)

But I also note a very bullish pennant on the 10-year yield/silver ratio chart, so I'm cautiously going to trade it, debt ceiling issues be damned.
Reply
arnieOctober 11, 2013 at 11:36 AM

The current bear market in gold would be much easier to take, if for instance, there was a balanced budget, entitlements were under control, interest rates were not ZERO, there was no 17 trillion dollar debt. And on and on. But all those factors that could create a bear market dont exist now. But it doesnt stop the bear market. Difficult situation. Did I mention trillions of QE?
Reply
Replies

gudOctober 11, 2013 at 12:16 PM

Extreme bearish sentiment psychology is over-riding the fundamentals, it would seem.
At some point, the tension created by this false situation will be reversed. Who can say how long this delusion will prevail?

Reply

DorkboydanOctober 11, 2013 at 11:46 AM

Why is the HUI not forming a possible double bottom?
Reply
AGOctober 11, 2013 at 11:50 AM

LOL leaf reading based on end-of-day painted charts... momo trading at its best! I guess momentum ignition of a split second wire tripping 2700 contracts of Gold sold is irrelevant.
Reply
OluOctober 11, 2013 at 11:56 AM

Hi

Thanks for the good work you are doing in this site. I am so bearish gold. I am mindful though of the fact that when the common man (me) is convinced of something the opposite will happen. However I cant help but think aloud
How can gold be going down despite all the world QE
How can gold be going down despite all the world debt especially the US
How can gold be going down with a government shutdown in the US
where is the 'safe havenness' properties of gold?

Like someone who has gone bonkers I ask the above questions and provide the answer as well.

Gold has no safe haven qualities now
Gold is no longer an inflation hedge.
Gold is just an ordinary shiny metal good only to give to our partners as a sign of affection

That is just me...
Reply
GM JenkinsOctober 11, 2013 at 12:06 PM

Dan -

You've been saying that the bullion banks can't be held responsible for the counterintuitive decline that's been going on in the PMs since the Fed announced QE4 in December 2012. I'd be curious what you (and others here) make of Andrew Maguire's latest piece on KWN. Here's a summary of his important points:

"This week it was all about a cornered Fed … intervening in the paper gold markets again … defending the dollar

"The Fed operates ... through two primary ‘agent’ banks. They, in turn, time naked short gold sales in the futures market to coordinate what the Fed is doing in the more opaque foreign exchange markets.

"The bullion banks … have insider knowledge, and can easily discern where it’s best to surgically add large synthetic supply … to force the paper market participants to capitulate longs ... It also draws in other participants to go short. [emphasis mine]

"Goldman Sachs are up to their old tricks again … suggesting ‘It’s a slam dunk sell.’ Now, actually this is a bullish sign ... they are approaching ‘sold-out’ already, and they are looking to take the other side (long) of that trade"

[end]

I personally rarely read KWN and especially don't take Maguire seriously as a short term prognosticator, first because Bron Suchecki (and others) have revealed serious weaknesses regarding his understanding of the futures market (see here if interested), and second because I catalogued <a href="http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2012/12/london-trader-redux.html>here</a> his poor track record of KWN predictions (and they've been worse in the year since i posted that).

On the other hand, what he's saying above makes a lot of sense <i>prima facie</i> to someone (like me) with no expertise in the (potential) mechanics of price suppression. I'm curious what you think, though, since I've read you make arguments supporting both sides of the debate."


"Shawn TraudtOctober 11, 2013 at 1:35 PM

Screw the west, Dan, the west is broke. Money and gold are moving east. When the fraudulent western paper markets can't deliver real gold, they will collapse. Eastern gold markets are opening in Singapore, Russia, China, etc. They'll take over and sell real gold to real clients soon.....
Reply
Dean BaturineOctober 11, 2013 at 2:18 PM

If gold is in a panic sell...who is buying?
Certainly no one on this website.
I do not know a single person who is NOT short right now. I do not even know anyone who knows anyone who is NOT short both physical and shares.
It always makes me nervous when something is so one sided.
Short Gold, long DOW.
Whoever is buying at these levels (and yes there are buyers) is either:
1. Extremely stupid
2. Drunk and extremely stupid
3. Drunk and on drugs and extremely stupid
4. or very very smart
Reply
Replies

ConcordOctober 11, 2013 at 2:35 PM

Dean,
Consider I sold more of my gold position today and feel number four is what the really smart investors are doing today. Yes it has disconnected from fundamentals but that is precisely why it should be getting some interest from others outside gold. People here are so gold phobic whether bear or bull that they will not see the turn as quickly as those objectified investors who can see how none of this makes sense.
steve brasseyOctober 11, 2013 at 3:44 PM

concord; u need to relax; in the longrun, a little bit of gold and silver will not hurt, but really, do you really think that it will make yo u a fortune or that that the world will collapse? No, so relax, swb in sparks
ConcordOctober 11, 2013 at 4:10 PM

Steve,
It is not but as I mentioned below at some point. It gets overdone. I trust your instincts but the sentiment is just off the charts. By the way any ideas on how to make a fortune?
Reply

The Weather UNITOctober 11, 2013 at 2:24 PM

When Janet Yellen makes her first official statement concerning the planned market intervention she has up her sleeve these markets are going to do a MASSIVE SECTOR SHIFT. What Yellen does remains to be determined and only the Mancini, Capone, Lanskey, and perhaps the Norcini families know what's really going on on the inside...?....
Reply
Replies

Trader DanOctober 11, 2013 at 2:37 PM

Weather Unit;

If she calls me first, I will let you know! After all, Luca Brasi is still roaming around out there and you never know about that guy!

The Weather UNITOctober 11, 2013 at 2:40 PM

Just remember I never plan to go fishing with any of those guys. :-)
Reply

White WolfOctober 11, 2013 at 2:29 PM

==============IDIOT HERE======Buying Miners again. Bought back some today. Ready for more beatings. Please Beat me some more...MOAR BEATINGS PLEASE.. "


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

i'm rooting for "White Wolf."

most of the other Norcinists look like idiots, except for Dan, who is a Trader - looking for short term return and able to make money doing that.

money which he could use to Stack It, but he doesn't often talk about his own Savings holdings.

\/ this is my post -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Dan, in what form do you keep your _Savings_ in ?

i.e., after you're done making money as a trader. Your Nest Egg.

We don't need the exact address :-) but it would be interesting how you PRESERVE wealth.


I'm thinking that your approach to preserving wealth might be different from your approach to making money.

[EE_]

I'm guessing Dan stores his wealth safely in stocks and bonds

[Jewboo]

http://api.ning.com/files/FKY2Wfcqp3yj1CAvZF1zGXcEAN8RZK5uJmuL5F28bjjs9uX7Bm-e3YeVCzrh5iU34CfjBLXarHsOJhyu-WTdIU3fr9uW8vw7/AMMOCASEUSE_image.jpg

[mamboni]

The FED and other central banks, via monetization and neverending market interventions, have destroyed pricing of assets, including gold and silver. We are in a period of financial and economic anarchy. This is the temporary simulacrum steady state on the way to end state collapse. Along the way the gyrations will be extreme. Trading these markets is essentially walking a tightrope while juggling grenades. You are better off standing still in cash and hard assets, protecting cash flow, and minimizing any debt and leverage. Making gains now is frankly, short sighted and stupid. As for the gold price, I agree with Willie that it is presently meaningless. We are being whipsawed by twin forces of asset price deflation and liquidity-driven commodity and energy inflation. Add to this the undulations of a dying economy that kills demand here and there creating pseudo moderations of commodity pricies, and the uncertainty of Central Bank interventions to follow, and the situation is completely fluid. I like holding a significant portion of my "assets" in physical gold and silver, guns and ammo, food and water and cash. I am unconcerned about gains and prices. I am far more worried about surviving into the next epoch and holding on to what I've got. I will put my trust in the tangibles.

I just returned by the South Jersey Shore and let me say that the RE market there is hanging at the edge of an abyss, waiting for a little nudge. The beach house asking prices are insane, as in 2006 level wishful thinking levels. These people are nuts who bought these houses as cash flow machines and asset appreciation devices. I look at the demographics of a downsizing indebted baby boomer generation, a tapped out over-indebted US consumer, a government that has run the debt-rollover Ponzi to it near terminal limits, and bloated house-of-cards bond and equity markets on the verge of implosion and I must conclude that these RE owners will be utterly destroyed. Here's a house we looked at: asking $1.6 million. The owner bought it in 2011 for $2.1 million, put about $300K in imporvements into it. Three months ago he put it on the market for $2.1 million. I told my wife that he'd be lucky to unload it for $900,000 now to some dope and that in the long run he will lose it and have to walk away from the mortgage, taxes and upkeep. It's coming real soon.

[Shami-Amourae]

http://api.ning.com/files/FKY2Wfcqp3yj1CAvZF1zGXcEAN8RZK5uJmuL5F28bjjs9uX7Bm-e3YeVCzrh5iU34CfjBLXarHsOJhyu-WTdIU3fr9uW8vw7/AMMOCASEUSE_image.jpg


You never told me what calibers you think we should prep. I've spent my past 2 years or so hunting/prepping for ammo, especially after Sandy Hook (which really woke me up to it.) I mostly hunt for 9mm currently.

[Jewboo]

I mostly hunt for 9mm currently.



Me too. I recently bought one of these.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjYYrCzmCRA


(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjYYrCzmCRA)