Bond market selloff ----> rising interest rates -----> massive bond losses for Japanese banks -----> trigger derivative losses ----> massive losses to US and European banks ------> cascading derivative losses ------> two choices for soveriegns: (1) monetize losses leading to hyperinflation (2) writedown losses leading to bank failures, wiping out depositors, pension funds and institutions (massive deflation TEOTWAWKI).
The important thing to note is that there is no way out for Japan. Their only choice is default or hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is the less painful and destructive choice to the bankers; because a default will trigger a system-wide derivatives implosion. Hyperinflation in Japan will put the yen carry trade on megasteroids, leading to inflation in the rest of the world.
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