Tracking the DOW PLUNGE!!!

[Ares]

Actually, a lot of us do.

I know I do, most of my family does, and so do a lot of my friends. Shut it down, throw away the key and never reopen.

[Sparky]

I thought this morning's move down might show some signs of panic (leading to a more meaningful plunge), but so far the volume is not very unusual.

It looks like this is what's going on: Market participants have been trained that each one of these fearful events is followed by a major surge in the market as soon as a short term resolution emerges. As such, there seem to be sufficient buyers stepping in at every weakness to prevent a meaningful plunge.

I've learned over the years that as soon as a trend in behavior like this becomes recognizable, it reverses. This is likely due to the big fund managers exploiting the sentiment of the retail players. So the contrarian outcome this time around would be that a resolution be met with huge selling by the fund managers during the next would-be post-resolution surge.

This would be consistent with my anticipation of our upcoming "Winter of Discontent". Expect most of the market pain to occur AFTER the budget and debt ceiling issues are resolved, i.e. from late October through March time frame. Normally, this is the market's strongest period.

[Son-of-Liberty]

I don't know if you can predict anything in this market.

Normal traders aren't the only ones that can read charts.

Banker and government manipulators can push the market it one direction to change the "trend" then the software of programed traders and HFT trading accentuate the move.

This is why the PM's can't gain any traction. Any time the charts start to trend upwards the bankers break the trend.

When you think about it the fundamentals for PM's have never been better. China and Russia are buying huge quantities of gold. Hong Kong imported the equivalent of 80% of the yearly supply in the last year. Germany wanted it's gold back and was told it would have to wait 7 years. Several bullion banks have defaulted in the last few months. Panama is having a bank holiday. COMEX inventories are extremely low. The US government is shutdown because they can't agree on a budget and future spending and the debt ceiling needs to be raised in the next week or so.

Despite all this PM's are languishing in mediocrity. It is because everyone is trading on technical analysis and that makes it easier for the bankers to manipulate the price of anything they want. The whole game is rigged.

Of course it will all break down at some point but when?

[Jewboo]

http://www.forexlive.com/wp-content/.../Santa-Ben.jpg
Trust in Jesus

[Horn]

I thought this morning's move down might show some signs of panic (leading to a more meaningful plunge), but so far the volume is not very unusual.

Who knows if volume is not spread out over weeks by Leo Wanta also?

[Sparky]

I don't know if you can predict anything in this market.

Normal traders aren't the only ones that can read charts.

Banker and government manipulators can push the market it one direction to change the "trend" then the software of programed traders and HFT trading accentuate the move.

This is why the PM's can't gain any traction. Any time the charts start to trend upwards the bankers break the trend.
...

It takes capital to manipulate the trend. The banks were nearly out of capital, but it was restored with QE1, QE2, QE3. Yes, you can do this for a while, and so markets are unpredictable from the short to medium term (weeks, months, a year or two). But all those fundamentals have to play out in the long run. When is that? One hint is your mention of Germany, who seemed willing to wait 7 years to get their gold back. There's some tipping point between now and then that the rats will all start jumping ship in anticipation.

[Son-of-Liberty]

It takes capital to manipulate the trend. The banks were nearly out of capital, but it was restored with QE1, QE2, QE3. Yes, you can do this for a while, and so markets are unpredictable from the short to medium term (weeks, months, a year or two). But all those fundamentals have to play out in the long run. When is that? One hint is your mention of Germany, who seemed willing to wait 7 years to get their gold back. There's some tipping point between now and then that the rats will all start jumping ship in anticipation.

I am in agreement.

[mick silver]

Of course it will all break down at some point but when? ... not till they want it to break down not a second before they have suck all they can out of everything in this country

[Horn]

Sparky, you ought to start your own blog like the Silver Bullet bandit did.

You could probably sell a million copies with your Confidence Regularly Manipulative Market Greenshoots Breeders Report. lol!

[Neuro]

It takes capital to manipulate the trend. The banks were nearly out of capital, but it was restored with QE1, QE2, QE3. Yes, you can do this for a while, and so markets are unpredictable from the short to medium term (weeks, months, a year or two). But all those fundamentals have to play out in the long run. When is that? One hint is your mention of Germany, who seemed willing to wait 7 years to get their gold back. There's some tipping point between now and then that the rats will all start jumping ship in anticipation.

I don't think Germany wants to wait 7 years to get 20% of their gold held abroad back. They hope for the best, which is within 7 years they at least will get a portion of that back. Their leaders understand it is a Pandora's box! That is why they don't press the issue...